Index
Market in General
Stocks
Currencies
Last Week's Views
| Investment Views (December
7th 1998) |
Instead of writing my clients
individually I thought I might as well
do a weekly summary of my views
on the markets, the currencies,
the economy, the world, and
life in general.
Markets in General
The correction on the stock markets around the world continued last
week.
However it is still quite easy to make a case for the bulls.
Liquidity is still
aplenty. Central banks around the world are pumping money into
the
world financial systems like crazy. So why should the stock markets
correct more than 10% at the most? The leading bull market of
the
world remains the US. And the correction in New York was much
less than elsewhere in the world. The Dow was down about 6%
from its high of 9380 level. On Friday we see a rebound back
above
9000 level. Is this correction over, before it really started?
Nobody
knows for sure. All we can do is watch the 9400 level to the
upside
and the 8800 to the downside. We see the Dow trading between
this range next week.
In Europe the markets faces some contradictory influences. On
the
one hand, the central banks have demonstrated their willingness to
lower the interest rates. On the other hand, stock markets in
Europe
typically underperform, when the currencies are too strong against
the dollar. Therefore we also see some range bound trading in
Europe
next week.
In Switzerland the SMI tested the 6550-6600 level intraday on Thursday.
But the support held, so we had a strong rebound on Thursday.
Friday's market
did some backing and filling. We see the SMI recovering strongly
on
Monday, since the Dow closed above the 9000 level on Friday.
We still see the SMI trading between the 6500 and the 7200 level, unless
we manage to close above 7400. On the downside 6250 is probably
the most damage the market will sustain.
Go to Index
Stocks
Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio
Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless, Orange
and Bachem.
| High of the Year |
Low of the Year |
Stock |
Last Week's
Close |
Daily high |
Daily low |
This Week's Close |
| 8489 |
5108.30 |
SMI |
7216.40 |
6863.20 |
6684.40 |
6822.70 |
| SFr. 1495 |
1351 |
Bachem |
1810 |
1800 |
1781 |
1781 |
| Gbp 8.13 |
4.67 |
C&W |
7.83 |
7.85 |
7.38 |
7.55 |
| SFr. 51 |
25 |
Ericsson |
40.25 |
38 |
35 |
37.30 |
| FIM 509 |
182 |
Nokia |
521.5 |
548 |
517.80 |
547 |
| Gbp 8 |
2.40 |
Orange |
6.08 |
6.12 |
5.89 |
6.04 |
| FIM 1080 |
640 |
Raisio Group |
65.50 |
63.80 |
59 |
60 |
| SFr. 1029 |
419 |
SAP |
668 |
615 |
589 |
603 |
| SFr. 2350 |
1820 |
Stratec |
1800 |
1890 |
1870 |
1890 |
| SFr110 |
65 |
Veba |
80.50 |
75.50 |
71 |
74 |
|
On Friday Nokia's representative at one of the current technology conferences
reassured
the market that sales is growing strongly and they see a 20-30% growth
for 1999. Nokia's
stock rose strongly in New York. We should also see Ericsson's
stock rising next week
too.
Go to Index
Currencies
The dollar did not manage to close much higher than SFr. 1.40.
The Swiss National
Bank also raised the Lombard rates on Monday. So the dollar fell
back below 1.40
again. By Friday it was trading between 1.35 and 1.36 level.
We therefore see
the dollar testing the 1.30-1.32 level again.
The world economy still seems to be on a deflationary course.
The only robust
economy remains to be the US. We can only hope that after the
New Year, the
European Central Bank will lower the interest rates again and give
the
European economies a lift.
Go to Index
| *The stock prices are provided
for informational puruposes only and not intended for trading
purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are:
opinions! |
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