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Market in General
Stocks
Currencies
Last Week's Views
| Investment Views (December
21st 1998) |
Instead of writing my clients
individually I thought I might as well
do a weekly summary of my views
on the markets, the currencies,
the economy, the world, and
life in general.
Markets in General
Last week was tripple witching week. ( The stock index futures and
options all
expired on Friday.) Therefore we saw a lot of short covering
and technical trading.
The news that the US and Great Britain started bombing Iraq did not
cause
any market correction. The fact that Clinton will be impeached
did not
cause a wink. The analysts said that all these news were already
discounted
by the markets already. I'm not sure. I think the market
would have reacted
much more strongly had all the news occurred in another week.
As I have
already stated last week, an impeachment is an important event, because
it is a sign how politically divided the US is. The standard
of fairness and decorum
has been lowered. Private affairs and dirty laundry of politicians
are now
free for all the paparazzis to unearth. Under such circumstances
many
good and capable men and women will be discouraged from entering politics.
For the long term this cannot be positive for a country.
All the European markets have exhibited amazing strength last week.
War,
weak dollar, impeachment all failed to deter the advances of the stock
markets. After the advances of last week we should see some corrective
movements next week, even though the time before Christmas have
traditionally been positive for the markets. We therefore expect
the markets
to trade sideways with a slight upward bias. The Swiss stock
market closed
above 7000 level on Friday. The 6500 level support had held twice.
So we
see further upwards movement up to at least 7400 level. Monday
we might
see a bit of pullback though. If we do not close below 6930,
we should be
all right. A movement above 7400 would bring further upward momentum
to
at least 7645; maybe even 7900 level.
Go to Index
Stocks
Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio
Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless, Orange
and Bachem.
| High of the Year |
Low of the Year |
Stock |
Last Week's
Close |
Daily high |
Daily low |
This Week's Close |
| 8489 |
5108.30 |
SMI |
6662.50 |
7057 |
6990.30 |
7003.70 |
| SFr. 1495 |
1351 |
Bachem |
1784 |
1800 |
1780 |
1800 |
| Gbp 8.13 |
4.67 |
C&W |
6.93 |
7.31 |
6.92 |
7.05 |
| SFr. 51 |
25 |
Ericsson |
30.75 |
31.45 |
29.10 |
29.75 |
| FIM 509 |
182 |
Nokia |
535.80 |
590 |
572 |
590 |
| Gbp 8 |
2.40 |
Orange |
6.07 |
6.88 |
6.60 |
6.87 |
| FIM 1080 |
640 |
Raisio Group |
65.10 |
59.50 |
51 |
55.50 |
| SFr. 1029 |
419 |
SAP |
510 |
540 |
530 |
530 |
| SFr. 2350 |
1820 |
Stratec |
1910 |
1900 |
1900 |
1900 |
| SFr110 |
65 |
Veba |
71.75 |
72.90 |
71 |
71.20 |
|
Raisio Group is extremely weak. We find the stock very attractive
at the level FIM 51. We recommend buying
at that level.
Go to Index
Currencies
Despite of the war with Iraq, the dollar did not recover substantially.
We think the main reasons for this weakness are: impeachment,
the introduction of euro, and the huge trade deficit. Since the
impeachment trial won't begin until next year, we should see
further dollar weakness. Therefore the new European
central bank will be forced to lower the interest rates. This
will be a positive for stocks in Europe. But the upside will
be limited.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Years Everyone!
Go to Index
| *The stock prices are provided
for informational puruposes only and not intended for trading
purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are:
opinions! |
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