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    •   
    Investment Views  (July 20th 1998) 
     
    Instead of writing my clients individually I thought I might as well
    do a weekly summary of my views on the markets, the currencies,
    the economy, the world, and life in general.

     
    Markets in General 


    On Thursday Bundesbank warned in Alan Greenspan fashion that in their opinion the
    European stock markets have risen too much and too fast.  The Dax hardly listened.
    The Dow  made new highs.  As long as the IMF keeps on pouring money into the
    financial crisis area, the markets in the "safe haven" countries will keep on rising.
    Where should all that money go otherwise?  It is ironic that the money that is supposed
    to "save" the economies of the troubled countries turn right around back and goes into
    the US or Western Europe.  Until the confidence is restored, this trend will continue.
    Grennspan and the other western European central bank officials can only watch
    helplessly as the financial bubble builds up in their countries.  In the mean time
    investors can sit back and enjoy the rally of the century.
    Go to Index
     

    Stocks 

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless
    Baan and Bachem.*   Raisio Group's stocks spit 1:10.
     
     
    High of the Year Low of the Year Stock Last Week's 
    Close    		 Daily high Daily low This Week's+ Close
    HFl.  108.70 62.60 Baan 81.60 88.10 85.40 85.90
    SFr. 1495 1351 Bachem 1970 1925 1880 1880
    Gbp  8.13 4.67 C&W 7.90 8.47 8.07 8.40
    SFr.  44 25 Ericsson 47.50 49.15 48.10 48.10
    FIM  378 182 Nokia 424 453 447 447.50
    FIM  1080 640 Raisio Group 96.50 98 97.50 97.50
    SFr.  785 419 SAP 837 895 870 895
    SFr.  440 385 Straumann 385 388 380 383
     
    +Because I'm leaving early for a long weekend, I shall use the Thursday closing prices.

    SAP's downward correction lasted only about two days.  The upward movements continued
    almost immediately.  I think this is a sign that the institutionals still haven't been fully invested
    in SAP.  After all they have only just "discovered" SAP.  SAP's first half results are

    Straumann has had some problems, because the German health insurances have stopped
    paying for implants.  But the fundamental demographical trend towards implants remains
    strong.  Young dentists trained in implant technology should also be anxious to sell the treatment.  Just as people are willing to pay for Viagra, they should be also be willing to
    pay out of their own pockets for dental implants.  There's nothing sexy about dentures!
    Go to Index
     


     Currencies 

    The dollar rally fizzled.  We're back to range trading.  Until the dollar goes below
    DM1.78 or SFR 1.50, the uptrend is still in tact.  Everything depends now on the
    Japanese.  If the new prime minister is the financial markets' choice, then we should
    see a lower dollar.
    Go to Index
     

     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational puruposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!
     

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