William Charles Simpson
Forecast Lag Measurements

US GDP Quarterly Lag
This quarterly lag is a measurement of how long it will take to see certain change and improvement to the economy. The net change between quarters is used as a growth factor. A series of projections are divided down the event line, the GDP, until lag is achieved for the series of projections. The lag has to be 1.0 and over in order to achieve lag. The numbers are rounded down to the nearest two digits decimals. The latest lag is based on the 6 quarters 4rd quarter '95 to 1st quarter '97. The Data comes from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SUMMARY: If the GDP was changed and/or improved this quarter, it would take 3 quarters from this quarter at the longest before the change and/or the improvement would be noticed in the GDP. 

qtr  gdp        qnc   proj   lag 0   lag 1   lag 2   lag 3

95q3 6777.4 
95q4 6780.7      3.3  6784    0.99    
96q1 6814.3     33.6  6847.9  0.99    0.99
96q2 6892.6     78.3  6970.9  0.97    0.99    1.00
96q3 6928.4     35.8  6964.2  0.98    0.98    1.00    1.01
96q4 6993.6     65.2  7058.8  0.98    0.99    0.99    1.01
97q1 7094.4    101.2  7195.5  0.98    0.99    1.00    1.00




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