William Charles Simpson
Forecast Lag Measurements


Quarterly
1994 3rd Qtr to '98 3rd Qtr

Figures are in billions of current dollars. Quarterly figures at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Lag is calculated by dividing the actuals by the sliding projections. Source: US Burueau of Economic Analysis.
year gpd prev nc proj lag q0 lag q1 lag q2
               
1994q3 6986.5            
94q4 7095.7 6986.5 109.2 7204.9 0.98    
1995q1 7170.8 7095.7 75.1 7245.9 0.99 1.00  
95q2 7210.9 7170.8 40.1 7251 0.99 1.00 1.00
95q3 7304.8 7210.9 93.9 7398.7 0.99 1.01 1.01
95q4 7391.9 7304.8 87.1 7479 0.99 1.00 1.02
1996q1 7495.3 7391.9 103.4 7598.7 0.99 1.00 1.01
96q2 7629.2 7495.3 133.9 7763.1 0.98 1.00 1.02
96q3 7703.4 7629.2 74.2 7777.6 0.99 0.99 1.01
96q4 7818.4 7703.4 115 7933.4 0.99 1.01 1.01
1997q1 7955 7818.4 136.6 8091.6 0.98 1.00 1.02
97q2 8063.4 7955 108.4 8171.8 0.99 1.00 1.02
97q3 8170.8 8063.4 107.4 8278.2 0.99 1.00 1.01
97q4 8254.5 8170.8 83.7 8338.2 0.99 1.00 1.01
1998q1 8384.2 8254.5 129.7 8513.9 0.98 1.01 1.01
98q2 8440.6 8384.2 56.4 8497 0.99 0.99 1.01
98q3 8538.6 8440.6 98 8636.6 0.99 1.00 1.00


Last Updated on 1/25/99
By WC Simpson


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Email: wcsimp@hotmail.com