BOMBS, BLOW-BACK AND THE FUTURE

 

Tariq Ali

 

 

                   For the last three weeks Pakistan’s military rulers have been trying

                   to convince the Taliban to hand over Ossama Bin Laden and avoid the

                   castastrophe which was being prepared. They failed. Since Ossama is

                   the son-in-law of Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, this was

                   hardly surprising. The more interesting question is whether Pakistan,

                   after withdrawing its own soldiers, officers and pilots from

                   Afghanistan managed to split the Taliban and withdraw those sections

                   of the Taliban totally dependent on its patronage. This would have

                   been a key aim of the military regime to maintain its influence in a

                   future coalition government in Kabul. Relations between Pakistan and

                   the Taliban have been tense this year. In an effort to cement

                   friendship, Pakistan despatched a football team six months ago to

                   play a friendly against Afghanistan. As the two teams faced each

                   other in the stadium at Kabul, the security forces entered and

                   announced that the Pakistani footballers were "indecently" attired.

                   They were wearing football shorts whereas the Afghan team were

                   wearing long shorts which came down well below the knees. Perhaps

                   they felt that the heaving thighs of the Pakistanis might cause

                   upheavals in the all-male audience. Who knows? The Pakistani team was

                   arrested, their heads were shaved and they were all flogged in public

                   while the stadium audience was forced to chant verses from the Koran.

                   This was Mullah Omarˇs way of firing a shot across the Pakistan

                   Armyˇs bow.

 

                   The bombing of Kabul and Kandahar by the United States and its loyal

                   British ally will not have affected the fighting strength of the

                   Taliban-minus-the Pakistani faction plus Bin Ladenˇs special brigade,

                   consisting exclusively of Arabs from his Jihad International, as far

                   as bodies are concerned. The combined force is now reported to

                   consist of 20-25,000 hardened veterans. Nonetheless the Taliban are

                   effectively encircled and isolated. Their defeat is inevitable. Both

                   Pakistan and Iran are ranged against them on two important borders.

                   It is unlikely if they will last out more than a few weeks. Obviously

                   some of their forces will go to the mountains and wait till the West

                   withdraws before attacking the new regime likely to be installed in

                   Kabul with the octogenarian King Zahir Shah moved from his

                   comfortable Roman villa to less salubrious surroundings in the

                   wreckage of Kabul, where the Hotel Intercontinental is the only

                   undamaged building.

 

                   The Northern Alliance being backed by the West is marginally less

                   religious than the Taliban, but their record on everything else is

                   just as abysmal. Over the last year they have taken over the

                   marketing of heroin on a large scale, making a mockery of Blairˇs

                   claim that this war was also a war against drugs. The notion that

                   they would represent an advance on the Taliban is laughable. Their

                   first instinct will be revenge against their opponents. However the

                   Alliance has been weakened in recent days by the defection of

                   Gulbudin Hekmatyar, once the favourite "freedom-fighter" of the West,

                   welcomed in the White House and Downing Street by Reagan and

                   Thatcher. This man has now decided to back the Taliban against the

                   infidels. Sustaining a new client state in Afghanistan will not be an

                   easy affair given local and regional rivalries.

 

                   A major worry is that the Taliban, cornered and defeated in their own

                   country, will turn on Pakistan and wreak havoc on its cities and

                   social fabric. Peshawar, Quetta and Karachi are especially

                   vulnerable. By that time the West having scored a "victory" will turn

                   a blind eye as usual. As for the supposed aim of this operation---the

                   capture of Ossama Bin Laden--- this might be less easy than it

                   appears. He is well-protected in the remote Pamir mountains and since

                   he has had three weeks to plot his course, he might well disappear.

                   But victory will still be proclaimed. The West will rely on the short

                   memory of its citizens. But let us even suppose that Bin Laden is

                   captured and killed. How will this help the "war against terrorism".

                   Other individuals will decide to mimic the events of September 11 in

                   different ways. More importantly the focus will shift to the

                   Middle-East.

 

                   In Saudi Arabia fierce factional struggle within the royal familiy is

                   in progress. The dying King Fahd and his entourage left the country

                   in three large planes for Switzerland, evidently to avoid a palace

                   coup. This leaves the Crown Prince Abdullah in charge and his main

                   rival Prince Sultan, weakened. Saudiologists insist that the Crown

                   Prince is close to the Wahhabi clerics. Even if that is the case he

                   will be confronted with a very angry street. Likewise Hosni Mubarik

                   in Egypt. He too is concerned and has kept a distance from the

                   NATO-alliance, insisting his troops will not be used. The street in

                   Cairo is very angry. If there are eruptions in these two countries,

                   Washington might have no choice, but to push through the creation of

                   a independent Palestinian state. It is, however, too early to map the

                   consequences of September 11.

 

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