http://www.saag.org/papers4/paper323.html

South Asia Analysis Group

Paper no. 323

21. 09. 2001

THE OMENS FROM PAKISTAN

by B.Raman

Gen. Pervez Musharraf is the creator and the creation of Osama bin Laden. At the instance of the US, he turned bin Laden, a civil engineer, into a formidable commando in the 1980s. A happy Zia-ul-Haq sent him up the Army ladder. But for bin Laden's exploits in the Afghan war, Musharraf might not have reached the top.

He is also the creator and the creation of the Taliban. At the instance of the US and on the orders of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, and Maj.Gen.(retd) Nasirullah Babar, her Interior Minister, he and Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Deputy Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), created the Taliban in 1994--95 and helped it overrun 90 per cent of Afghanistan. The reward: the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) post in October 1998, superseding two Lt. Gens more capable than him.

The US was interested in the Taliban as a possible operational asset against Iran and as the facilitator of oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan planned by UNOCAL, an American company, with high political contacts in Washington DC. Dr.Henry Kissinger was reportedly the political consultant of the UNOCAL.

Speaking at a reception in honour of President Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan hosted by UNOCAL at New York on October 21,1995, Dr.Kissinger praised Mrs.Bhutto for her "imaginative and courageous decision" to help the UNOCAL (by creating the Taliban, of course).

Within three years, the Taliban proved an embarrassment. Its treatment of women and its massacre of the Shias of Afghanistan shocked the world. UNOCAL withdrew from the project.

Bin Laden, the legendary US ally of the 1980s, became a dreaded terrorist of the 1990s and a privileged guest of the Taliban. The two converted Afghanistan into what a State Department report on the Patterns of Global Terrorism called the new epicentre of international terrorism.

The Day of Infamy on September 11 was the inevitable result. The ally and the tool of yesterday have become for the US a dreaded menace to be destroyed to avenge September 11.

Gen. Musharraf, who co-operated with the US in the creation of bin Laden and the Taliban in the supreme national interest, is today collaborating with the US in destroying them, again in the supreme national interest, a favourite expression of his.

Willingly? No. At the point of the gun pressed against his head by the US.

Ever since the General agreed to do the USA's bidding, all his sins of commission and omission have been forgotten. Lollipops are already on the way-- promised removal of the post-Chagai sanctions.

Mr. Bush's strategic preoccupations have changed from the Missile Defence and China to the "war" to eradicate international terrorism personified by bin Laden and the Taliban To re-furbish his tarnished image, he has to satisfy the clamour for blood from the American public. This is a war, which cannot be fought without Pakistan. The General has, naturally, become the toast of Washington DC.

He should have been a happy man, but he hardly looked it during his telecast to the nation on September 19. He had a woe-beholden look. Not without reason.

He is haunted by reports of the gathering anger of the Mullas of

various hues and cries, madrasa students, the tribals of the

North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally-Administered

Tribal Areas (FATA), the Afghan returness in his Army, who had fought

shoulder to shoulder with the Taliban, and, most ominously, the Army

of Islam.

Under Zia, Musharraf and Aziz created the Army of Islam to fight the Soviet troops in Afghanistan and diverted it to Jammu & Kashmir in 1992 after the collapse of the Najibullah Government in Kabul. Today, it consists of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Al Badr. The first two are members of bin Laden's International Islamic Front For Jehad Against the US and Israel.

Today, their anger is against the US; tomorrow it could turn against Musharraf. The General dreads nothing more than the danger of being denounced by these elements as an anti-Muslim quisling.

He is keeping his fingers crossed hoping that the anger would pass.

India has reasons to be concerned over the rumblings from the mosques, the madrasas and the tribal areas in Pakistan. Whichever way the situation turns, it cannot but have a negative impact on India.

If the General overcomes the opposition and carries his co-operation with the US to a successful conclusion, a grateful Washington DC could be more attentive than in recent years to Pakistan's military requirements and more understanding of its case on J & K. Pakistan would have a say in determining what next after the Taliban in Afghanistan. It would keep India out.

India would find that the real US interest was not in keeping the world safe from terrorism, but in keeping the US safe from terrorism. It would be an illusion for India to think that the USA's "war" against terrorism would be against the Pakistani jehadis in J & K too.

If Musharraf fails and the religious elements manage to capture power, with the help of the fundamentalist elements in the Army, the process of the Talibanisation of Pakistan, which till now is viewed only as a distant possibility, might be hastened. India and the world would be confronted with two Talibans and, God knows, how many more bin Ladens.

The developing situation in Pakistan has to be closely monitored by India's national security managers.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com ).

Copyright © South Asia Analysis Group

All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Return to article index