Flight of Saudi funds from US raises concern

By James Politi in London and Julie Earle in New York

Published: August 21 2002 20:22 | Last Updated: August 21 2002 20:25

 

Moves by Saudi investors to shift tens of billions of dollars out of the US have added to market concerns that global fund managers are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the US, analysts said on Wednesday.

 

Economists and bond strategists were on Wednesday considering the impact of Saudi disinvestment on the dollar and US Treasury prices, following an FT report that as much $200bn of Saudi money may have left the US in the last few months amid deteriorating bilateral relations.

 

"Watch for Middle Eastern asset switches out of US dollars into the euro," UBS Warburg's London-based fixed-income team advised in its daily note. "If a trickle becomes a flood, it could force the spread [of US Treasuries to German bonds] wider in double-quick time."

 

David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns, said if Saudi holdings in the US were cut drastically and in a very short time, "there could be an influence on the dollar".

 

Most banks, however, emphasised the relatively low level of Saudi holdings of US assets, between $400bn and $600bn according to one estimate, or equivalent to less than 1 per cent of total outstanding US assets.

 

But Mr Brown said the question was "whether any Saudi disinvestment is isolated, or part of a global move to reduce US exposure". The latest figures on inflows to the US suggest a broader move away from American investments.

 

By May this year, the 12-month rolling sum of net foreign buying of US assets was down 14 per cent to $450bn, from a peak above $500bn late last year, according to UBS Warburg.

 

Medlej al-Medlej, executive director of the US Saudia Arabia Business Council in Washington, whose members include big oil companies like Exxon Mobil as well as banks, said: "We are hearing that the US is no longer the best place for Saudis to send their money. There is a growing impression that the US is no longer a safe haven for investment and we agree there must be some investors who are pulling out of the US."

 

Mr al-Medlej said there was a perception that since the September 11 terrorist attacks, the US was no longer a safe haven. "I honestly don't believe that the money moving from the US has anything to do with politics, but with security, in terms of the trillion-dollar lawsuits filed against Saudis after September 11 [by victims' relatives]." Mr al-Medlej said there was "a huge amount" of Saudi money in the US, mainly in equities and property. "We hear as much as $600bn to $800bn, and I don't think a large portion of that is leaving."

 

But not everyone agreed there had been multibillion outflows of Saudi money. Peter Scaturro, chief executive officer of Citigroup private bank, said his company's relationship with Saudi investors had not changed. "We are not seeing any real change in clients in the Middle East. We are in constant dialogue with them."

 

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