Iraq's Great Unknowns
Christian
Science Monitor Aug 23, 2002
from the August 23, 2002 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0823/p11s02-cods.html
By Daniel Schorr
WASHINGTON - In the run-up
to promised intervention in Iraq, the Bush
administration has been trying hard to establish two kinds of justification.
One is the existence of a clear and present danger of weapons of
mass destruction that should be preemptively attacked. The administration has
not managed so far to demonstrate that. The furthest that National Security
Adviser Condoleezza Rice would go, in an interview with the BBC last week, was
to say of Saddam Hussein that "if he gets weapons of mass
destruction," he will wreak havoc at home and abroad.
The other justification would be Iraqi involvement in
anti-American terrorism. Much attention has been given to a Czech intelligence
report of a meeting between hijacker Mohammed Atta and an Iraqi agent in Prague five months
before Sept. 11. But the meeting has not been corroborated, nor is the CIA sure
how important it was if it did happen. And, for what it is worth, Osama bin
Laden called Saddam Hussein a "bad Muslim" in a videotape unearthed
in Afghanistan by the CNN.
It is embarrassing that, having designated Iraq as a part of an
"axis of evil," the administration is unable, despite strenuous
efforts, to state definitely that Iraq is involved in
anti-American terrorism or that Iraq has chemical,
biological, or nuclear weapons it is ready to use. While awaiting better intelligence,
President Bush is shifting his attention from violent regime change to what a
changed regime would be like.
After one meeting with Iraqi opposition leaders in Washington, the
administration is reportedly planning a larger-scale international conference,
seeking to establish a coalition that could create a new government.
The meeting would be held in The Hague or elsewhere in
Europe in the hope of attracting so-far-absent
European support for the enterprise. If an opposition united front can be
established - which would be a first - then the invasion of Iraq could be
presented as something like the Northern Alliance war with the
Taliban in Afghanistan - an indigenous
movement with American support.
Plans can be made with exiled leaders, but the great unknown is
whether there are dissidents in Iraq who have
survived Saddam Hussein's tyrannical rule and who will come forward to help
liberate their own country.
Meanwhile, the administration searches for a casus belli - a cause
of war - that will sell the American public on a war in Iraq.
Daniel Schorr is a senior news analyst at National Public Radio.
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