From http://abc

Leaders Less Than Candid About Surviving an Attack

by Barton Gellman

Published on Tuesday, August 6, 2002 in the Washington Post

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0806-08.htm

New York -- In a closed meeting recently in Manhattan, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly fielded a question about the city's evacuation plan in case of biological, chemical or radiological attack.

"He took a long sip of his tea, and put it down, and said, 'What evacuation?' " recalled one participant, whose employer forbids him to be quoted by name. "He said, 'This is a city of 8 million people. It can't be done.' "

To someone choosing between shelter and flight, with contaminants in the air, that would be valuable information. National models show that a sudden exodus from nearly any big city would leave people gridlocked and exposed, while safe rooms they could make at home would offer life-saving protection.

But President Bush and local elected leaders are not saying so in public. For political and bureaucratic reasons, governments at all levels are telling far less to the public than to privileged insiders about how to prepare for and behave in the initial chaos of a mass-casualty event.

Homeland Security adviser Thomas Ridge often describes another major attack as "a matter of when, not if," and he said recently it could kill "vast numbers of Americans." But he has not urged the public to take available steps that could reduce the toll. When asked, government is dispensing generic guidance with fewer particulars than it puts in pamphlets about hurricanes and winter storms.

The Bush administration, Congress and some municipal authorities are preparing themselves more effectively. Congress, for example, has evacuation routes and respiratory protection for every member and aide.

John Sorensen, director of the Emergency Management Center at the federal government's Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, said he "offered to develop brochures for chemical weapons, biological agents and so forth" that would describe in plain language what Americans could do to prepare. He said the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the American Red Cross, which jointly publish the most widely used disaster preparation materials, "told me, 'We're not in the business of terrifying the public.' "

Thomas Glass, principal investigator in an authoritative National Science Foundation study of public behavior during emergencies, said the research found that planners consistently forecast panic that does not take place and misconceive the reasons for unsafe behavior. After examining hundreds of government contingency plans, Glass said they commonly treated the public in the manner "of animal husbandry."

The Bush administration has struggled with public disclosure of risks and precautions. Political appointees say the White House is reluctant to do more, in part because it sees its color-coded "homeland security advisory system," introduced in March, as a public relations failure. At least until recently, elected officials also calculated that asking the public to make specific preparations at home would undercut the political message that government was doing everything that could be done.

"Most people want to feel their elected and public safety officials are dealing with this," said Mayor Mike Guido of Dearborn, Mich., in comments echoed by Bush administration officials who declined to be named.

When mayors and city managers gathered in New York on July 27 for the National League of Cities working group on homeland security, several of them expressed frustration. "A red box, blue box, yellow box is not going to tell us what we need to know," Brenda Barger, mayor of Watertown, S.D., told Ridge's representative across the table. "You know what people are doing? They're blowing it off. We need to know what to do."

Joshua Filler, an aide to Ridge, replied that the mayor should determine that for herself. "The community should decide, 'This is what we're going to do at (risk advisory level) yellow,' " he said.

Susan Neely, Ridge's director of communications, acknowledged "that doesn't seem to be a satisfactory answer to people."

In a telephone interview, Ridge said "there has been enough concern expressed by the public" that Washington would have to address it. "People are seeking good information . . ." he said. "I certainly anticipate talking about it, because citizens want to know."

So recent is that decision that the National Strategy for Homeland Security, released July 16, mentioned nothing about self-protection for individuals and families.

Nearly all government advice on terrorism sacrifices practical particulars to an unalarming tone. The usual guidance is to maintain a three-day supply of food and water along with a radio, flashlight, batteries and first aid kit.

The FEMA-produced materials do not mention whether, why or when to evacuate, and they do not advise the public to keep plastic sheeting and duct tape available to prepare a "safe room" if directed by authorities. Federal research on chemical weapons found life-saving benefits in "simple taping and sealing," which cuts exposure to outdoor agents by a factor of 10.

There is also no published government advice for self-protection in the event of a "dirty bomb," which might scatter radioactive debris. Jane Orient, president of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, said a rule of thumb could be offered in a dozen words: "You need to have mass between yourself and the source of radiation."

Ridge said FEMA, once absorbed into Bush's proposed department of homeland security, would be "a natural agency to give more specific (advice) to prepare for a more specific terrorist event. They're not there yet."

No government agency recommends that individuals buy respiratory filters. Yet a 324-page study at the Oak Ridge labs, evaluating over 1,000 scenarios for evacuation, shelter and respiratory protection, found that inexpensive filter masks "may be used to significantly reduce exposure" to chemical warfare agents and some biological threats, including anthrax.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Return to article index