What if…

 

          A very common question asked by historians, and people in general, is if what would happen if the Germans (or the Soviets) had done something different. Here we explore the various possibilities for both sides and answer the questions that still linger in the minds of the people (and even historians!) today.

1.          Hitler had postponed his invasion of the USSR to 1942 or later?

Hitler would certainly have gained much more time (the Russian winter in ’41 arrived early and it was cold; it was not likely that there would be further distractions e.g. the Greek and Yugoslav campaign) and the initial German thrust would have gone much deeper. 

 

2.          Hitler had not stopped Army Group Centre’s advance?

Germany would hold a long winter line bulging in the centre. It is still debatable, but highly likely, that Moscow would have fallen to the Germans by the first days of November. The purpose of a thrust towards the Soviet capital was aligned with the new theories of blitzkrieg: war could be shortened by just targeting a few people (ie. Stalin and Zhukov.)

If Moscow was not captured, the gamble would have failed and the Germans would only occupy the eastern Ukraine and the Donetz in 1942.

By halting the advance of Army Group Centre, Hitler was following the older theories of war. They, of course, still held. This question, in fact is a hot potato among historians.

 

3.          Hitler had given the Ukraine and the Baltic States independence?

The Ukrainians, along with the people of Ostland (Baltic in German), would certainly have contributed much more to the German Reich’s economy. This would mean that the Germans would have a greatly expanded economy. The German defence in 1943 would thus have been more effective and their scorched earth policy more effective.

 

4.          Hitler had ordered that Leningrad be attacked?

Had ‘the cradle of the Revolution’ been attacked, it would most certainly have been taken, albeit at high casualties. This was due to Marshal Zhukov’s clever defences (mines and traps) were placed.

They also would (possibly) have set up an alternative government in the city. The capture of the city would result in immense propaganda value.

 

5.          Japan had invaded the USSR (instead of attacking Pearl Harbour)?

The main response would be that ‘the Soviets, forced to defend two fronts, would have drained its resources.’ This is the complete Idiot’s guide’s response.

This however, is untrue. Soviet troops guarding Siberia were of the top class; ‘the cream of the crop’ as described by Alan Clark’s Barbarossa.

Stalin knew that the Japanese easily took advantage of ‘incidents’. The Japanese Kwantung Army, however, had deteriorated from a crack force of over a million men in the 1910s to a ragged force of 750,000. It must be noted that only a part of this force was moved in the days of October. They definitely could resist the Japanese.

 

6.          Hitler had been successful in capturing Stalingrad?

Had Hitler taken Stalingrad in mid August[1], he would have gone on to Astrakhan and Kazan. The German thrust would have been so deep into the interior of the USSR that the war would have lasted until 1947 at least if the outcome were unchanged.

 

7.          Hitler had ordered the 6th army to break out?

Had the 6th Army staged a successful breakout, the Germans would have stood fast in their winter line like 1941. The German conquests of 1942 could be used as a jumping off board for the 1943 campaigns.

Had the 6th Army staged an unsuccessful breakout, it would most certainly have been crushed mercilessly. Worse, they would not distract any enemy units, thus making the German thrust to Kharkov in early March a failure. The war would have ended slightly earlier.

 

8.          Hitler had decided not to attack Kursk?

Had Hitler not attacked Kursk and set up his East Wall (Narva--Dniepr), the Germans would have a formidable defence along the whole of the eastern front. Soviet casualties would certainly have been much higher as many troops would be needed to break the line. Unlike the Maginot Line in France which was bypassed.[2] The outcome of the war would have remained unchanged.

 

 

 


[1] Hitler actually could have taken the undefended city in August. It was a lack of fuel that slowed his armies. The Soviet intelligence, intercepting Hitler’s plans, sent reinforcements just in time.

[2] The Maginot Line was a line built by the French after the First World War. This line of defences was formidable. Unfortunately, it was easily bypassed when the Germans attacked France from Belgium in 1940.