Wednesday December 22 10:08 AM ET
Queen Has 40 Pct Change of Longest Reign
LONDON (Reuters) - The Queen has a 40 percent chance of becoming Britain's longest reigning monarch, an actuarial assessment on Wednesday showed.
After last month's announcement from Buckingham Palace that she has no plans to abdicate, the Queen can confidently expect to pass Edward III, Henry III and
George III -- leaving only Queen Victoria's record-breaking 64-year reign to beat.
On that, the odds are still against her.
Actuaries Lane Clark and Peacock, statisticians who work out insurance risks based on mortality rates, said the Queen now has a 41 per cent chance of outlasting Victoria, who reigned from 1837 to 19O1.
Queen Elizabeth II, who came to the throne in 1952, has been on the throne 47 years and is now Britain's fifth longest-reigning monarch.
She has a 93 percent chance of beating Edward III, who reigned for 50 years from 1327 to 1377, a 74 percent chance of beating Henry III who reigned for 56
years from 1216 to 1272, and a 59 percent chance of beating George III who reigned for 6O years from 176O to 182O.
``We are all delighted Her Majesty is in excellent health and -- assuming she does not change her mind and choose to abdicate -- stands an excellent chance of breaking Victoria's record,'' said the actuaries spokesman Bob Scott.
The actuaries also said that if were the Queen to step down on overtaking Victoria, Prince Charles, now 51, who can reasonably expect to live until he is 84, would become king at the age of 66.
``Were that to happen Charles would be the oldest person ever to accede to the throne -- just. William IV became king in 183O when aged 65,'' Scott said.