A Gift Fallen From the Sky
NBA Draft 2007
05.24.07

I'm not a big NBA lottery guy. I understand that NBA wants to avoid to have teams intentionally lose games at the end of the season to get higher position in the draft. By having a lottery, there is no guarantee that the worst teams by records would have the best chance to get the top three picks in the draft. It all makes perfect sense. However, losing more games give a team the advantage of having more combinations of ping-pong balls in the draft. I would still intentionally lose games if I want to have a better chance. Why not? If my team sucks, I would do anything to rebuild my team, and there is no other way better than start from the draft.

I think the draft should be there. It does not only avoid teams fixing their end of season games to add odds to higher picks, it also adds intrigue and suspense to the whole draft bonanza. Especially when there are talents like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant waiting to serve two lucky teams. As a Blazers fan, I would love to have them win the lottery in some way. Secretly I was rooting for them to get the second pick so they would pick Durant out of my college team Texas. It would have been the perfect combination!

When I was watching the envelop unfolding, I sure was hoping that the Trail Blazers would be skipped. It was too good to be true. Their name was indeed skipped. Too bad I had to switch back to Fox to watch the American Idol finale between Blake Lewis and Jordin Sparks. I ran to my computer as soon as Idol was done. The picture shown on nba.com was Brandon Roy sitting right across I believe Mike Tirico. The headline was "Trail Blazers won NBA Lottery".

I was happy of course, and was stunned, too. I found it too good to be true, and at the same time hard to believe. How should I take this in? I was disappointed in some way because they didn't get the second pick, which by consensus should be Durant because Greg Oden is atop everybody's draft list. There seems to be not much of a debate. Everyone thinks the defensive dominant 7 foot center from Ohio State should be the number one pick.

Back to the draft lottery. This current format of lottery, in which the team with the worst record possesses the best chance (25%) of getting the top pick started in 1994. However, only two times out of 14 (including this year, 2007) the worst team actually won the lottery. This leads me to think that maybe this system isn't as fair as we think. The worst team with a quarter chance of getting the top pick is in reality about 15% chance of winning. For the last three lotteries the teams with the sixth worst record (6.3%, Milwaukee 2005), fifth worst record (8.8%, Toronto 2006), and sixth worst record (5.3%, Portland 2007) won the lottery. That makes me think that maybe not being the worst team can be more beneficial. People used to throw around the conspiracy theory accusing the NBA lottery being rigged by the NBA as a tool to send top picks to teams the NBA desire, such as 1985 New York Knicks getting Patrick Ewing, and LeBron James going to his home state team Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003. The NBA has done a good job after the year of LeBron draft to invite reporters of selected media to witness the lottery process in order to increase transparency. I still don't understand why don't they just let it be live on television. I'm sure it's a good draw, good TV show, and fair game. I'm sure the lottery isn't rigged right now (not sure about 1985). But the fact that the NBA doesn't let more reporters in as spectators and put the show on TV, this event remains fishy.

The Oden-Durant debate will continue on national media like the ESPN, who also covers the draft. I know for a fact that ESPN does it to stir up interest and suspense. It's quite clear, apart from any unforeseen circumstances, that Portland will pick Oden with the first pick because of pressure and wide consensus. It is funny how this dominant center versus good scorer debate fall on Portland again. Probably the biggest draft blunder in history of drafts in any sports happened on the Trail Blazers in 1984 when they picked center Sam Bowie out of Kentucky, one pick ahead of guard Michael Jordan who eventually led the Chicago Bulls to six championships in nine seasons. Jordan was arguably the best to ever play the game. Bowie only played sparingly with Portland in four season and was eventually traded to New Jersey.

I'm not saying Oden could be the next Bowie. I certainly don't want this to happen if Portland is indeed picking Oden. However, as a Texas Longhorns fan, and I have seen Durant play many times in person, I know Durant is potentially the guy who will change the game just like Michael Jordan did when he played. I could be biased. But who had done what Durant had done in his only year in college basketball? He won all major Player of the Year awards and placed himself top 10 in both scoring and rebounding in the nation. News came out today that Portland is looking to trade for another top lottery pick in order to land Ohio State's point guard Mike Conley, Jr. who played with Oden through AAU, high school, and college. They are also good friends. Is this a sign that the debate is over?

DERBY COUNTY RAMS
www.therams.co.uk
25W9D12L, 84pts, 3st in ELC
Will face West Brom in Championship playoff final Monday at Wembley.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
www.oregonlive.com/blazers
32-50, 13th in West Conf.
Won NBA lottery to get first pick in draft. Will have the luxury to decide picking Oden or Durant.

HOUSTON ASTROS
www.chron.com/sports/astros
21-24, 2nd in NL Central
Hunter Pence provides sparks for offense. Play @SF, then 4 gms @ARI.

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