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THE Y2K DILEMMA-SEPARATING FACT FROM FEAR

January 03, 1999

For my first column of the year 1999, I wish to report that Chicken Little has returned. Yes, the Sky is falling. The sky is falling. The world is coming to an end as soon as the calendar reaches the year 2000. Why? Because then all the computers will fail and the government will fall apart. Nuclear missiles will misfire. Airplanes will fall from the sky or crash because their computers won't work. No one will receive any government checks. People will starve. There will be anarchy and starvation. Riots will follow. Run for the hills, hide, hoard the food and load up on ammunition for your shotguns.

Does this all sound ridiculous? Well, there are some Americans who believe all this will happen. Survivalists who have been preparing for catastrophes for the past thirty years are smugly claiming that they were right all the time. The end is coming.

Exactly what is the y2k bug? I don't know but it must be real bad because it's terrifying everybody. Even those who would never be that concerned about computer technology are voicing alarm. A fellow artist, Ruth, told me several months ago that she was worried about the upcoming millennium crisis. She has a personal computer and wondered if all the data inside would be deleted. I answered glibly that the problem didn't affect small PC's and only large mainframe systems would be affected. I was wrong, very wrong.

In the past two years, a problem that was originally described as affecting large mainframes has been found to be potentially fatal to personal computers as well. I have done a little research on the subject and what I have learned is both fascinating and alarming.

Let me make one thing clear right off the bat. While I do not wish to make light of a serious matter, I do not anticipate any great calamity occurring on Jan.1, 2000. The government has been aware of this problem since 1995 and has instituted the necessary safeguards. Private companies are also making whatever upgrades are necessary to ensure uninterrupted access to their computers.

The biggest danger that we face is panic by an uninformed public. People who are afraid that their bank funds will be unavailable may cause an unnecessary run on the banks. The Federal Reserve has prepared for such an event and will be setting aside additional funds for the banks. But F.D.R. was absolutely right when he said that the only thing we have to face is fear itself.

The Y2k problem is solvable but it will take money- a lot of money. Many systems have to be upgraded so that their computers can recognize four digit years. Currently many pre-1997 systems can only recognize two digits which is why the year 2000 may be confused with 1900. This conflict will allegedly cause system halts and programs to malfunction. It is a problem that has to be taken seriously but it should not be causing panic.

I'll try to keep the following information simple because I hate techno-babble myself but it is very important. If you have an old computer you may need to upgrade your system. The reason is that inside every personal computer there are three time-keeping components. The BIOS (Basic Input Output System), which works when the computer is turned on; RTC (Real Time Clock) maintained in a battery-backed computer chip functions as a running clock; CMOS (Complimentary Metal Oxide Semiconductor), this memory chip stores the RTC Data and works when the computer is turned off. Okay, wake up now. I'm almost through.

These three components work together to access the applications(word processing programs, spreadsheets and accounting packages) that run on a PC. While there are software programs available to fix flaws in the systems, the BIOS is where experts believe the most significant problem lies. Replacement of the BIOS may require replacement rather than a simpler software adjustment. That's because there are so many different BIOS manufacturers involved that no one adjustment (Patch) may work.

Believe it or not, that's as simple as I was able to get. I can't afford to be without my computer so I upgraded my main motherboard this year and I am set for the next millennium or at least the next few years. If you are not sure if your computer is 2000 compliant get some expert advice. There are some very simple tests that you can perform on your PC involving resetting your clock manually but I don't advise it unless you have backed up all your data.

There is a wealth of information on the Internet but steer clear of sites predicting Armageddon. It's truly ironic that people are looking towards biblical prophecy to predict the end of the world. The Bible provides a message of hope that good will conquer evil so what are we good people worried about? Call me a cock-eyed optimist but I see a silver lining in this momentous event.

Y2K consultants have reported that while we Americans are taking this potential crisis very seriously, they have not witnessed the same concern by other countries. At the moment we are far ahead of other nations in solving the problem. This may of course present a problem for U.S. companies doing business abroad but I am sure they are taking the necessary precautions to safeguard their investments. The United States may emerge from this even stronger than before as long as we don't let our fears destroy us.

I wonder how much attention Saddam Hussein is paying to this problem. Iraq's guided missile and other defense systems are computer activated as well. Hmmmm.

The last time I checked the latest y2k update, the United States government has been upgrading all it's systems and is on schedule for the next millennium. The only glitch they've run into has been with the Internal Revenue Service computers. Does anyone seriously doubt they'll be fixed in time?


Copyright (c) Alicia Colon 1999