Conflict With Eritrea

General Situation

Though international and regional diplomatic efforts appear to have made little progress in resolving the dispute, August and September have passed quietly, without any serious clashes reported from the contested border zone. Meanwhile, both sides appear to have made use of the lull to strengthen defences and position additional men and equipment close to the front lines.

With the military build-up and increasing tension, there has been a continuous trickle of people moving away from the potential danger zones. By the end of September, according to the Government's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission a total of 188,690 people had been displaced by the conflict and registered for relief assistance, up from 145,000 given at the time of the June humanitarian appeal.

The two-way flow of nationals across the common border has also continued unabated during the lull. While deportations of people of Eritrean nationality considered by the authorities to be a threat to national security has diminished considerably since the end of July, there has been some increase in the numbers of people wishing to leave Ethiopia in order to join their family members already deported to Eritrea. In such cases, the government indicates that it has been willing to give people the choice of staying if they wish but otherwise giving sufficient time for arrangements to be made for the handling of business and other personal affairs. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is now present on both sides of the border and is active in escorting all groups wishing to make the transit from Ethiopia into Eritrea and vice versa.

While considerable international attention has been focussed on the deportations from Ethiopia, there has also been a steady flow of Ethiopians leaving Eritrea, where many have lived and worked for their entire lives. The Ethiopian government has accused the Eritrean authorities of mistreating its nationals stranded in Asmara and Assab, and of preventing them from returning to Ethiopia, allegations which the Eritrean government denies. Toward the end of September, the number of Ethiopians crossing back into the country increased markedly, especially at Bure where several groups of a thousand and more have crossed from Assab. As of September 24, the Government indicated that a total of 24,970 Ethiopians had returned from Eritrea, up from a figure of 14,938 issued by the government a month earlier.

The negotiating positions adopted by the two countries have remained unchanged since the end of June: It has been indicated that Eritrea might be ready to enter into direct talks to reach a peaceful settlement of the dispute; meanwhile, Ethiopia points out that, prior to any settlement arrangements Eritrea should withdraw its forces to points occupied prior to the first military clashes on and around May 6 this year, as stipulated in the US-Rwandese peace plan proposed in June and which has since received the full backing of the Organisation of African Unity and the UN Security Council.

Under the auspices of its present chairman, Burkina Faso president Blaise Campoare, the OAU is expected to convene one more meeting of the high-level "Contact Group" in an attempt to reach agreement on a negotiated settlement to the dispute. The Contact Group, which in addition to Burkina Faso comprises the heads of state of Zimbabwe and Djibouti, is expected to be joined by delegations from Ethiopia and Eritrea led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and President Isaias Afewerki, respectively. The meeting, is due to take place in Ouagadougou in October. Despite considerable international backing for the OAU initiative, many regional observers feel that it is most unlikely that the Eritreans will heed demands for a withdrawal of their troops from the occupied territories, which is seen as the only way to rapidly de-escalate tensions in the border areas. Without a withdrawal, both the Ethiopian president, in an address to the nation on September 11, and the prime minister more recently have made it clear that the federal army is ready to re-take the lost territories by force.

Humanitarian Update

On September 25, the Ethiopian Government's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) called a meeting of donors, NGOs and international organisations to present an updated account of emergency needs arising from the conflict with Eritrea. This briefing had been anticipated for some time as the earlier June appeal explicitly excluded consideration of Ethiopians forced to leave Eritrea, the needs of host communities, and longer-term rehabilitation and integration requirements. The update summarised assistance needs for a total of 24,970 Ethiopians "expelled" from Eritrea, and quoting short term (until February 1999) relief requirements for a total of 188,690 internally displaced, up from 145,000 given in the June appeal.

For Ethiopians who have returned from Eritrea, the government has devised a short- and medium-term programme to help the group quickly reintegrate in the country and restart their normal lives. The government is therefore seeking international assistance for a "relief-rehabilitation package" that comprises transport assistance from reception centres to home areas, basic food rations, various household items, blankets, clothing and a one-time cash grant of approximately US $200 per couple. Assuming a planning figure of 50,000, in addition to $4.5 million for the cash grants, the DPPC indicated that the returnee package would require 6,750 tons of food (rations for nine months), household items worth approximately $360,000, some 10,000 blankets and funds to meet transport costs estimated at $310,000.

While the current number of Ethiopians who have returned from Eritrea is officially reported as of September 24 to be 24,970, the DPPC reports this number is climbing almost daily (some 4,000 returning from Assab in a one week period alone) with the current planning figure for relief purposes put at 50,000. However, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the final figure could be as high as 100,000. While the largest group of returned Ethiopians to-date are being assisted in Tigray region (approx. 11,000) substantial numbers are also recorded in Amhara region, Afar and Addis Ababa (where some 4,000 plus are registered). The largest influx at present, however, is taking place from Assab via the Bure border crossing.

The new figures for the number of people internally displaced by the border fighting is put at 166,308 in Tigray region and 22,382 in Afar. The new update details the local and international response to the June appeal, emphasising that the regional governments have been at the forefront of co-ordinating and organising assistance. A national fund-raising committee has been formed to co-ordinate fund raising activities and to alert the public and potential donors to relief needs. To date, this committee has secured nearly 72 million birr (approximately US $10 million) in cash contributions from public and private institutions, individuals, community associations and Ethiopians residing abroad. According to the DPPC, an "unknown portion" of these funds have been pledged, and will be used, in support of national defence efforts but this has not prevented the fund from being used to underwrite the purchase of household items and to support regional government relief efforts to the tune of Birr 20 million.

Present needs for the internally displaced, both in terms of relief and rehabilitation, remain considerable. For the moment, however, the government is focussing on the most immediate relief needs only, preferring to leave consideration of rehabilitation requirements until "after the areas occupied by Eritrea have been recovered". In terms of numbers, the government is still using a planning figure of 300,000 - but for the new appeal update preferred to keep to the present registered caseload of 188,690 and assistance for a six month period until the end of February 1999.

After taking into consideration commitments to date and the planning figure of 300,000, according to the DPPC the net current requirements for the internally displaced include 14,218 tons of relief food (including supplementary rations), some 80,000 blankets, household kits and jerrycans for around 80,000 families and support for water supply and health services amounting to approximately US $1.7 million and US $890,000 respectively.

Significant additional pledges confirmed recently include a US government grant of US $10 million for 16,000 tons of food aid and 36,000 blankets (more details below) and an agreement signed between the Italian Government and the DPPC worth $230,000 for the provision of additional shelter materials. UNHCR have also confirmed the contribution of a limited number of additional kitchen sets, plastic sheeting and other household items which the DPPC intends to distribute to needy returnees as part of the planned resettlement package.

Logistics and port operations

Djibouti port

To help minimise port congestion, the UN World Food Programme is coordinating closely with donors and NGOs on the scheduling of incoming aid shipments to Djibouti. The recommendation to donors is that they look carefully at the sequencing of arrivals at the port, but with only two and a half bulk cargo berths available, delays in discharging vessels is almost inevitable.

Under the framework of its "Food Aid Transport System" (FATS), a dedicated fleet of 117 long-haul trucks has been moving WFP food aid since July, and so far transport operations have run smoothly out of Djibouti. The taking of cargo from vessels on direct delivery plus the well stacked cargo at both WFP port and town warehouses have ensured uninterrupted loading of trucks. On the other hand, problems with on-board cranes, slow off-loading at some destinations and poor conditions on the Dewale - Dire Dawa road due to heavy rain, have hampered the overall efficiency of the operation. In mid-September, the important northern route was closed to traffic for four days following an accident between two trucks which effectively blocked the carriageway. During the period from September 1 to September 19 a total of 11,250 tons of food was dispatched from Djibouti to various destinations in Ethiopia, an average of 625 tons per day. The longer-term daily average is nearer 800 tons with 1,000 tons plus achieved from time to time.

WFP is considering an 40 - 60 percent expansion of the dedicated trucking fleet by the end of October to meet the additional demand as shipments to Djibouti increase. The service will also be offered to donors and NGOs on established routes at rates that will vary from an indicative US $105 (Mekele) to US $50 (Dire Dawa) per ton depending on final destination. WFP is also negotiating a direct agreement with the Ethio-Djibouti railway company for guaranteed minimum monthly deliveries to Dire Dawa, an arrangement which it is hoped will take some of the pressure off the Dewale road.

Berbera port

A number of donors, including the European Union, have indicated an interest in making use of the "Somaliland" port of Berbera to supplement the still limited bulk cargo handling capacity of Djibouti. According to a fact-sheet prepared by UNCTAD, with a linear wharf of 650 metres (comprising, five commercial berths and one roll-on/roll-off berth) and a depth of water ranging from 9 to 12 metres, the port of Berbera has sufficient capacity to receive cargo vessels of 10,000 to 15,000 tons capacity. With no shore cranes, however, discharge has to be through vessel's own tackle though three mobile cranes are available. Covered storage capacity in the port area amounts to some 5,760 square metres (approximately 120,000 tons) while some 64,000 square metres of open storage is also available. Given this profile, and the availability of stevedores and equipment, recent visitors consider the port well able to handle discharge rates of around 1,000 tons per day.

Port charges compare favourably with Djibouti with stevedore costs of US $3.50 per ton ($4.50 in Djibouti) and port handling where storage is required of US $3.50 per ton ($6.00 in Djibouti). Experienced shipping agents and freight forwarders are represented in Berbera and, according to the local authorities, ample trucking capacity is available for transporting consignments from Berbera to Jigjiga and Dire Dawa.

There is an asphalt road from Berbera to a point some 60 kilometers from Hargeisa. Though there are a number of broken bridges, trucks without trailers should be able to negotiate the route to Jigjiga without problems except for a 20 kilometer stretch around the border which becomes difficult in the rainy season. Total distances involved are comparable to Djibouti.

Following a recent mission to the port, the European Union suggest in a report that if the option of Berbera can be successfully tested with a modest shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 tons of food aid with a final destination of either Jigjiga or Dire Dawa, such an initiative would encourage other donors to also look at the feasibility of using the port, thus helping take some pressure away from Djibouti.