Any time a devastating war between two neighboring countries, Eritrea & Ethiopia could restart and cover our TV screens and press headlines. According to reports coming from Ethiopia and Eritrea, the preparation and build up of armaments seems to have been completed. Both sides are already talking a language of war and gesturing their readiness to win it. War is inevitable. All that remains, according to the Eritreans, is for an Ethiopian soldier to fire the first bullet.

A simple analysis of the war scenario would be relevant at this moment. Questions must be asked in relation to the whole episode. What will be the objective of this war? How will it end? What will happen after the end of the anticipated war? In my simple analysis I will try to answer these questions in brief to allow others to follow it up.

What is the objective of this war?

There is no regime that goes to war simply for the sake of it. There must be an objective to be achieved. Whether such objectives are based on justice and fairness to others is a different issue all together. For the TPLF/EPRDF government of Ethiopia the declared objective is to drive out the Eritrean forces from the Bademme, Sheraro and Zalambessa areas which were under TPLF/Tigray Killel administration until May 1998. For the EPLF/PFDJ government of Eritrea the declared objective is to defend Eritrean sovereignty over all the disputed areas until a peaceful and mutually agreed resolution is reached.

So if we take the above official (diplomatic) positions, both sides have justifiable reasons to convince their respective public opinions that their war is actually to defend the national sovereignty of their countries. In the absence of free press, debate, free political association and genuine democracy, the peoples of both countries will certainly be dragged into the nonsense bloodshed. A significant number of Ethiopians and Eritreans are currently being driven by their emotions and ill-defined heroism and nationalism to support their antagonistic regimes, hence playing to the war tune.

I am one of those who believe that the whole issue goes far beyond the so-called border conflict. To sum it up in one sentence: It is a power struggle between the EPLF and the TPLF. Both groups are well known for their hegemonic attitudes and will do every thing, including going to war, to achieve the unachievable. In fairness to the TPLF, at present it is the EPLF who is fighting to continue dominating the TPLF (and through it Ethiopia) while the later is seeking to ensure that this can not be or continue to be and fighting to make the EPLF leadership understand that partnership should be based on equality.

How will it end (if it ever started)?

Only god may have the accurate answer for this question. But I can make an assumption based on my observations and readings as an Eritrean opposed to the despotic regime of Mr. Afeworki. The TPLF and EPLF led regimes will go to this war knowing that their very existence will be shaped by its outcome. No U-turns. To be or not to be is the case at hand. EPLF has created and nurtured the TPLF (my respect for the Tigrayan hard working people is unshaken by this fact). Afeworki can not afford to see the later go out of control be it in the economic or political spectrums. After seven years of successful ethno-centric governance and determined process of recreating Ethiopia after 100 years of Amharisation, the TPLF led regime has long ago left the stage when it had to receive policy dictates from the office of Mr. "President" in Asmara, often over the phone as was described by Ato Meles. The days of such quasi relations have gone unnoticed by Ato Issayas who was busy bullying his own people and his other neighbors. Afeworki is a well-known gambler. He will attempt to turn the clock back and subjugate the Tigrean elite once again. Whether he will succeed this time or fail it remains to be seen.

Back to the question "how will the war end"? As I said above, there is no easy answer to this question. Will Eritrea win it or Ethiopia is not the issue here.

I have always argued against my fellow Eritreans who say we won the 30 years war of independence against the Ethiopian aggressors. Because my measurement of any war's outcome is quite different to some of my fellow countrymen and women.

It is true we have fought against the Ethiopian occupation of our country and paid the dearest price with dignity. We have lost our young brothers and sisters. Over 700 (seven hundred) Eritrean villages were wiped out of existence. The untold atrocities committed in our once peaceful villages like Oona, Ad Yassin, Hergiggo, Berekenteya, Agordat, Aylet-Gemhot etc. are ever lasting memories of our relationship with the previous Ethiopian rulers. My argument is the 30 years of war was lost by both Ethiopia and Eritrea. In Eritrea we kept dreaming of a country free of atrocities we dreamed of creating a country where justice and democracy prevailed we dreamed of rebuilding Eritrea once the occupiers have left. Instead, the 30 years of war for liberation resulted in a devil called Issayas Afeworki and his ruling clique within the EPLF (we should be careful of assuming that the EPLF and Eritreans in general are one homogenous group, because they are not). For the last seven years the Eritrean people who paid the highest price for his liberation has been living in an open prison. Over half a million refugees who left their war torn villages are still unable to return to their homes and farms, living in a very appalling conditions in refugee camps in Eastern Sudan.

The millions of dollars contributed by the Eritrean Diaspora during the struggle for liberation are still unaccounted for. Since its creation in the late 1970s, the EPLF has never stopped milking the Eritrean people inside and outside Eritrea under different pretexts. It may be the case that many non-Eritreans do not know the fact that all Eritreans, including myself, who do not contribute a percentage of their income i.e.2%, 10%, $100+ for the handicapped etc. etc. (latest $1000+ for the current war effort) are not recognized as citizens and would have no rights under the EPLF regime. In other words, to be an Eritrean you have to be an EPLF loyalist and make regular financial contribution which no one dare asks where it goes. The very disabled fighters in whose name the EPLF has been milking poor Eritrean pockets were killed and wounded when they attempted to demand the regime to better their appalling conditions in the outskirts of Asmara just after the independence. The fate of hundreds of Eritrean schoolteachers who opposed and challenged the health of the EPLF curriculum, which is nothing but an EPLF propaganda that does no justice to the young Eritreans' right to education, is still unknown. Today many Eritreans homes are insecure more than ever. What we Eritreans call "night visitors" are terrorizing the whole population to the extent that no one can trust any one any more. This is common even within one family member. EPLF informers and agents have infiltrate even families. Many Western journalists are often misled to assume that Eritreans are behind their regime in every aspect of their life because the people can not say anything but good about the regime to spare their lives from the "night visitors". I see all these as an outcome of the 30 years of war for liberation, which make me feel that we still have not won the bloody war. Yes we have won back our beloved small country but lost it again to another despotic and rootless regime, the only difference this time is that it is not Italian, British or Ethiopian military dictators, but it is an Eritrean regime.

I stated the above argument to conclude that both Eritreans and Ethiopians will lose the war. The two regimes will seek each other out.

What will happen after the end of the war?

The outcome of the current conflict will shape not just the Ethio-Eritrean relationships but also the way each of the countries is governed. The danger is if both or one of the antagonists is crushed there will be a power vaccume which could threaten the very existence of the countries. Given the plurality of their societies and the deep -rooted distrust among the different ethnic groups within each country, Ethiopia and Eritrea could at best be Somalised and at worst may fragment into small sultanates, emirates, chiefdoms and kingdoms or vice-versa.

The other danger is (again in fairness to the TPLF) if the EPLF comes out of this conflict/war victorious, we will face even greater challenges of making Mr. Afeworki understand that aggression and arrogance do not pay. (This should not be understood that the disputed areas are Ethiopian. They are disputed areas and their ultimate status should be resolved peacefully. The fact that they are disputed areas however, they do not necessarily have to be occupied by the EPLF, which is why we disagree with our despotic regime).