Commentary:

It Doesn't Matter If The Wine Is Old Or New, As Long As It's Good

By Tesfai Abraham
October 5, 1998

In a recent statement packaged as an article in an Eritrean paper entitled 'The US new peace initiative; a fresh start or old wine in new bottles?' Eritrea strives to write the script in advance for the US delegation led by former National Security Advisor, Anthony Lake, due in Ethiopia and Eritrea this week in a renewed and maybe last US effort to broker peace between the two countries. In my view the article is proof of the fanciful world inhabited by the leaders in Asmara. The piece abounds in intrigue and conspiracy suggesting a true work of fiction. What it demonstrates to me is that as the crisis moves to its climax - probably at the Ouagadougou meeting of the concerned heads of state in the very near future, Asmara is succumbing to an unusually strong bout of nerves. This is because it expects the mediators (OAU or otherwise) to 'tell it like it is' - essentially to call on Eritrea to withdraw its troops to positions they held prior to May 6, 1998.

That demand is, 'old wine' to the Eritrean Government. When it was proposed by the US and Rwanda back in June, Eritrea found fault with the US for 'bulldozing' the proposal through. Rwanda, tired of abuse, bowed out of the negotiation process.

The demand for withdrawal (redeployment) reappeared again at the OAU Summit in Burkina Faso. The 'old wine' would not go away. The authorities in Asmara were furious with the OAU but held their tongue, hoping for better treatment in New York.

But at the UN things got even worse. In Resolution 1177, the Security Council gave strong support to the OAU decision. 'Old wine' received international acclaim.

Caught in an ever tightening diplomatic vise, Eritrea gambled with the OAU Committee dealing with the crisis and went along, albeit reluctantly, as the OAU set out to prove what it knew all along - that Badme had been under Ethiopian administration up till May 6, 1998.The 'old wine' was back with a vengeance and, this time, with an even stronger OAU seal of authenticity.

Perplexed with the growing support for, and vindication of the Ethiopian position, Eritrea was caught in a jam. That Badme was Ethiopian till May 6 was already proved. That it is in Eritrean hands today is a known fact. So an ill advised new story appeared that Ethiopia encroached the area in July 1997. Why this new version appeared, we do not know. It has no impact on the OAU as the organization has irrefutable evidence that even then, and long before then, Ethiopia had been administering Badme.

And then a new twist was introduced. Badme may have been under Ethiopian administration, but if so, the administration was illegal. But if so, why occupy it by force when one could have dealt with the matter (as had been agreed) through the joint Border Commission.? Or does Eritrea believe in changing borders by force? Well, we all know the answer to that - that is, all of us who are Eritrea's neighbors who have all in turn faced nasty behavior from the new-born in our midst.

In fact, anyone associated with 'old wine' has borne the brunt of Eritrea's bullying tactics. We mentioned the US and Rwanda before. Most recently it was the OAU's turn as Eritrea blasted the much respected OAU Secretary General in the same breath that it poured scorn on the upcoming visit of Anthony Lake. It seems that everyone who is responsibly attempting to address the issue is seen as a threat by Eritrea. But, in a characteristic leap of imagination, Eritrea's Foreign Minister in his UN speech on October 2 depicted Ethiopia as 'rejecting all overtures by third parties for peaceful solution of the dispute.' Does he believe that the world is deaf to everyone but him? That the world hasn't heard about Eritrea rejecting this, Eritrea rejecting that - dashing all hopes and bringing us to the edge of the precipice?

What Eritrea's leaders hope to gain from a renewed outbreak of hostilities is difficult to imagine. They must certainly believe by now that any proposal that will be brought before them - old or new - will include a demand for Eritrea to redeploy its troops out of the area, so that residents and their administration return - opening the way for resolving matters related to the border between the two countries.

As the US sends its respected envoy Anthony Lake to Ethiopia and Eritrea it would be naove to expect him to exhibit magical new tricks like a conjurer 'out of a hat', or switch bottles of wine for that matter. This is not a circus. It is a crisis - and a serious one at that. There is no need to demoralize those seeking peace, and insult, in the same breath the intelligence of the international community. The US envoy may present creative ways of implementing the global consensus arrived at by OAU and UN decisions. But Eritrea's leaders should not for a moment imagine that 'ducking the issue' of withdrawal is in the cards. That is at the core of the international consensus. It is too bad if Eritrea considers that 'old wine in new bottles.' To all those who are serious in the quest for peace, it is not whether the wine is old or new that is important. What matters is that the wine is good.

Judging from the wise decisions made in the past by facilitators, the OAU, and the UN, we should have no reason to doubt that the world has changed its taste.



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