.............................................

For the last eight years, the conventional wisdom among critiques of the government is: There is a secret document authored by TPLF and EPLF designed to reduce Ethiopia to a collection of mini- states. According to rumors and shukshukta herd on the street, this secret document is placed under maximum security - even the authors don’t know the exact location, let alone ordinary mortals like you and me. It is indeed, no small achievement that this secret document has generated a mystery like The Arch Of The Covenants, in a relatively short time span, albeit not in the same league with The Arch.

The mystery surrounding this controversial document has generated heated discussions among contemporary students of Ethiopian politics; it will also present challenges to future historians who will make an attempt to identify the origin, identity and content of this document. Proponents of conspiracy theory believe that TPLF and EPLF are the authors of the document. However, opponents believe that like most conspiracy theories this one is not based on concrete facts. For the last seven years both views were firmly positioned without a clear winner. Paradoxically, Isias, one of the presumed authors of the document by launching a naked aggression has provided opponents a window of opportunity to discredit the conspiracy theory.

In the light of this development we will review the dynamics of Ethiopian politics: the conspiracy issue, the role of TPLF and EPLF ; the unholy alliance between these two organizations , the relationship between Tigrean nationalism and Ethiopian nationalism; does Tigrean nationalism affirms or negates Ethiopiawinet?; the phlilosophy of Ethnic superiority espoused by EPLF; Eritrea’s objective to reduce Ethiopia to a collection of mini states ; the contention for regional power status; the implication of the Badme victory, the role of outside forces in the conflict , Ethiopians in the Diaspora and other relevant issues .

The prevailing skepticism among some Ethiopians at home and in the Diaspora, is understandable when it is viewed in the context of the historical evolution of the two organizations, geographical proximity, close working relationship and the cultural and linguistic common denominators among Tigrean Ethiopians and Tigrean Eritreans. The role played by theTPLF in facilitating, endorsing, and providing legitimacy to Eritrea’s independence provided additional ammunition to the skeptics and reinforced the notion of a secret agenda to dissolve the oldest nation in the world to a collection of mini states

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom of the skeptics, TPLF had neither the leverage nor the organizational structure to resist, much less block Eritrea’s single minded drive for independence. It shall be remembered that in 1991, with multiple events set in motion - an exit strategy for the Derg , arrival strategy for TPLF and independence for Eritrea ; The country was subjected to new set of variables that undermined it’s ability to influence it’s destiny . Ethiopia’s destiny was at the mercy of new forces set in motion by new reality. The challenge for TPLF and Ethiopia was survival.

The departure of the old guards and the arrival of new players created a crisis atmosphere that left the country in a temporary state of coma. In this highly disoriented and panic atmosphere almost all institution paralyzed, The Ethiopian army in total disarray , and with EPLF mechanized brigade reportedly in the country , the derg government in exile, the young TPLF had only one choice - accommodate EPLF. To do otherwise would have been a suicidal mission for the country and the organization.

The year, 1991 should be remembered as a period in Ethiopian history, where confluence of forces internal and external conspired to provide impetus to Eritrea's independence. Given the political vacuum created and the abrupt transfer of power, no one was in a position to reverse the inevitable - Eritrea’s independence. Eritrea's independence was a forgone conclusion. However some critiques of the present government have erected a wall of resistance against this pertinent historical fact. Recognition of these historical facts is imperative to avoid the blame game - who lost Eritrea? ; Recognition of this fact will also facilitate the reconciliation among the various nationalities in Ethiopia. To attribute Eritrea’s independence solely to The TPLF, as some argue, is without merit.

It is imperative to acknowledge that TPLF is not the only organization that endorsed the right of nationalities to self-determination up to and including independence. This position has been debated and adopted by the Ethiopian Student Movement, " Progressive Ethiopian Intellectuals.", and other organizations like EPRP and MEISONE. The composition of membership in both the student movement and other organizations reflects the cross section of the Ethiopian peoples. However it is imperative to note that these organization's view did not reflect the collective wisdom of the Ethiopian people on the question of nationalities.

EPRDF under the leadership of The TPLF was the first government in power in the history of the country to introduce a radical strategy to reengineer the structure of the nation by adopting - the controversial policy of the right of nationalities to self determination up to and including independence. This has been a long-standing position of TPLF. Ethnic based state structure under a federal government umbrella-the official policy of Ethiopia inevitably generated a controversy that is unparalleled in the country’s history- it is still vibrating.

TPLF perceived position as an advocate and facilitator of Eritrea’s independence compelled some people to question the Ethiopiwanet of the organization. EPRDF’s sympathetic policy initiatives and objectives designed to accommodate Eriterias interest in various areas : military and defense pact, economic assistance, economic subsidy, liberal trade policy, loan guarantee, free access to raw material and finished product; and retaining few Eritrea nationals in critical areas. These policy initiatives reinforced the perception that EPRDF is sympathetic to EPLF; there were some who went as far as saying that EPLF manages the Menelik Palace by a remote control!

It is possible that some sympathetic individuals in both organizations might have colluded in enhancing Eritrea’s interest at the Expense of Ethiopia; However, to suggest that the entire Tigrean population subscribes to this thesis is pure nonsense as amply demonstrated by recent conflict. Is it possible that the perceived collusion is a tactical necessity imposed by uncontrollable variables imposed by historical forces? It is indeed possible that even the individuals who might have been sympathetic to EPLF, did so to avoid provocation from Isias while Ethiopia is still in motion to find it’s equilibrium; It is also possible that If EPRDF had taken steps that undermined EPLF interest in the last seven years EPLF was ready to take action similar to Badme? It is also possible in his private conversation with EPRDF officials Isaias might have been using the carrot and stick diplomacy approach on Ethiopia.

It is not unreasonable to raise the question that contrary to the poplar perception to outsiders we are not privy to full information that some of the individuals who might have supported soft diplomacy towards Eritrea might have done so out of fear of the consequences of confrontation; not out of love for EPLF. Let me assure all readers that I am raising these questions based on my limited research of the evolution of the crisis in the last few years. There are new developments on the ground that compelled me to raise these questions. Previous assumptions and hypothesis has to be revisited and revised. There are some who might jump and say I am provoking an exit strategy for those individuals who have argued for accommodation. Let me assure you that I for one have no affiliation or association with any organization at all. I firmly believe we must all be open-minded and let the facts lead us to a conclusion; let us not allow our conclusion to lead us to gather supporting facts.

Inevitably the deep-rooted historical antagonism between these two organizations and the diametrically opposite views of TPLF and EPLF was too powerful to be repressed by the desire of some individuals who might have wished to sustain the relationship. The common denominators between Tigrean Ethiopians and Tigrean Eritreans notwithstanding, there has always been mutual contempt, jealousy and rivalry.

The final divorce in the marriage of connivance is further proof that the unholy alliance was imposed by unavoidable historical circumstances. This significant development (Badme) should furnish even the most cynical critiques of TPLF that these two organizations are indeed different- with distinctively separate missions and distinctively separate end game. Tigrean nationalism and Eriterian nationalism are mutually exclusive. Tigrean nationalism internalizes Ethiopianwinet ; while Eritrean nationalism negates Ethiopiawinet.

On the other hand, Eritrean leaders having rejected their Ethiopian history and heritage are visibly tortured from identity crisis; they are desperately searching for a new identity; they are not at peace with themselves. In their journey for a new identify they seem determined to eradicate everything that is Ethiopian; Even Teff, the national bread did not escape attack; an Eritrean intellectual by the name DR.Tesfai Yohannes made the following observation about the consumption of Ethiopia’s national staples in Eritrea " ‘Teff ’ has been away from the Eritrean people for almost twenty years and people especially the young have had a little encounter with it. People have been improvising using mashela and all sorts of inherited Italian food. So nobody seems to miss teff or even talk about it, everyone is bellyful." their you go again Italian

Tigrean nationalism does not exist independence of Ethiopian nationalism. Tigrean nationalism is organically linked to Ethiopian nationalism. Therefore Tigrean nationalism consciously will not under mine Ethiopian nationalism. If mistakes were made by TPLF (indeed there were serious mistakes in judgement and policy on the Eritrean and other questions ) let us put them in perspective ; there were Ethiopian rulers from different nationalities who have made policy errors towards Eritrea , we never questioned their Ethiopiawinet. .

The TPLF , believing that the policy of holding Eritrea has failed by successive governments supported the independence of f Eritrea. Little they knew that Eritrea’s hidden agenda has always been to reduce Ethiopia to its lowest common denominator.

Ethiopians naively believed that, EPLF’s only aspiration was independence; progressive intellectuals in the west believed this was a genuine liberation movement, the west believed that Isaias was the prototype of the new leaders only to be awakened that he is a new monster with the title of - HEAD OF STATE, CABINET CHAIR MAN, SHENGO CHAIR MAN, HEAD OF SECURITY AND COMANDER IN CHIEF. An Eritrean intellectual who is a regular contributor in the net (vol. 6 No.02 March 20, 1999) had this to say about Isaias "Eritrea is half Moslem and half Christian, but the President has the trust of his people across the board. In fact, there are some among the old who see him as GOD/Allah sent to emancipate the Eritrean people, but almost all agree to his being a tseguram (charismatic) leader." In effect he is telling us that ISIAS = GOD;

ISIAS = ALLAH; some even go further to restate the equation ISIAS > GOD!!!

EPLF, has been closely monitoring developments in Ethiopia and preparing Eritrea for the last seven years for aggression. Indeed EPLF true to it’s Italian tradition have prepared a three course meal- independence was just an appetizer- the main dish to be served was not Spaghetti either, ladies and gentlemen the special dish is, Mother Ethiopia - of course well done!!! by Chef Isaias to be served by Shabia . By the way the menu was written by the British restaurant consultant Alexander Lax.

The mother of all deceivers, the mother of all magician has indeed fooled us big time.

Little we know that EPLF is an organization that subscribes to the philosophy of racial superiority of Eritreans who officially refers to the Tigrean Ethiopians as Agames , donkeys, backward, uncivilized ; refers to the rest of Ethiopian nationalities as uncivilized Afro man , lazy, corrupt and dependent. The Title of a recent poetry that appeared in the Internet (1/15/99 Remote name 208. 253.68.158-OH... ERITREA, I WISH YOU WERE SOMEWHERE -ethio.com/ethiopiandiscu/) reflects the philosophy or Isaias and Company.( for more articles please visit the web)

" OH ERITRAYE, I WISH YOU WERE SOMEWHERE AWAY FROM THE EVIL AAGMES AND DONKEYS

YOU ARE AN ISLAND OF THE CHWA

IN AN OCEAN OF SCAMS,

YOU ARE AN ISLAND OS OF PRIDE

IN AN OCEAN OF PATHETICS.

YOU ARE AN ISLAND OF HARD - WORKING PEOPLE,

IN AN OCEAN OF BEGGERS.

I WISH YOU WERE SOMEWHERE

IN THE MIDDLE OF AN OCEAN,

FAR, FAR AWAY

FROM THE CORRUPT AFRO -MAN,

FAR, VERY FAR AWWAY

FROM THE SAVAGE ETHIOPIAN,...

The preceding poem by an Eritrean reflects the racial superiority that is being advanced by Isaias and Company. EPLF racial superiority is comparable to Nazi Germany philosophy espoused by Hitler. The foundation of EPLF philosophy is ultra nationalism and economic expansionism.

Eritrea, under Isias rejects its African heritage. Eritrea's application for The Arab League is pending, The Commonwealth Nations under consideration next stop is The European Union, Of course to be followed by NATO dreams the dreamer

Eritrea does not have the moral authority to accuse Ethiopia of ethnic cleansing- what a joke ? It was Eritrea who launched a whole sale deportation of Ethiopians from Eriteria . These were law abiding Ethiopian citizens who have been living in Eriterea and trace several generation, these were Ethiopians who owned business and properties . These were law abiding people not engaged in clandestine destabilizing activities or fund raising activities to overthrow the government- their only crime being Ethiopians . While these Ethiopians were being expelled in the thousands ( 150,000 according to Patrick Gilkes of the BBC) , Eriterans were celebrating and shouting ..Agames , donkeys, shoe shiners , Afro man go home . Where were the international institutions and human right organizations-UN, AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL and the HUMAN ROGHT arm of The State Department. These organizations who were quick to condemn Ethiopia for human right violations, took a convenient sabbatical well timed not to witness the large scale deportation of Ethiopians from Eritrea.

What a contrast! While Ethiopians were being deported under the most inhuman conditions, Eriterans in Ethiopia were being treated like a privileged class placed in high position in the public and the private sectors. Ethiopians who are admired for their gracious manner and hospitality extended this tradition to Erireans even after independence. The Ethiopian government was enforcing the right of Eritreans even at the cost of alienating itself.

Isaias and company were enjoying the MOTTO - Eritrea for Eriterians and Ethiopia for all!

Eritrea does not have the moral authority to accuse Ethiopia of state sponsored destabilization activities. This acquisition is the ultimate in hypocrisy. It was indeed Eriteria , when it’s dream of becoming the Singapore of Africa and exporting high tech products failed , it emerged as Africa’s Syria - resorting to state sponsored weapon infiltration , drug trafficking and creating opposition forces and exporting revolution in neighboring countries - Djibouti, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia ...

Isias and Company adopted the thesis - MIGHT IS POWER. Regional Power status become a national obsession for this young country. For the last eight years the government of Eritrea embarked on a major effort to build hard ware to build military infrastructure that is appropriate for a Regional Power. The leaders of Eritrea were busy stoke piling their warehouse with the latest tanks and armaments, from Helicopter gun ship to Mig 29.

National service became the law of the land. The entire population was subjected to the most intense training that has not been seen in Africa. Israel becomes the model. The Eriterian army was getting a rave review by western military analysts; an English military historian had this to say - The Eriterian army is the most efficient in Africa in all aspects of military operation- capabilities, moral, tactic, logistics, strategies; many believed Eritrea’s military preparedness was unparalleled in the continent.

In contrast the Ethiopian army was viewed with the utmost contempt. Eritrean ambassador to Kenya said - Ethiopians are like the Arabs and Eritreans like Israel. Given the state of our military preparedness at the time his comment is understandable. Isias has made several comments that he has enough military hard ware that can last through the 21st century; Ethiopians are not capable of fighting, there will not be a war jus a skirmish.

The ultimate of supreme arrogance and supreme confidence was displayed when the UN approached Eritrea to contribute manpower for the Rwanda peacekeeping force. The ever confident Isias told the UN that Eritrea has the capability to under take the mission by itself; and demanded that the UN should confer this responsibility on Eritrea. According news account of this event, in one of his high level meeting with UN representatives, the Eritrean delegation was reportedly trying to convince the UN official who was listening with amusement and shock.

Unlike Eritrea the Ethiopian government policy was demobilization. In fact the Ethiopian army was the most neglected institution; the government supervised the largest demobilization of military forces in Africa; the size of the army was reduced substantially, The highly respected Ethiopian Air Force was reduced to size; The Naval Force closed, military hard ware acquisition terminated, local military hardware manufacturing facilities closed. This was the reality of military preparedness in Ethiopia on the eve on the Badme invasion.

In this regard it is imperative to note the contrast that while the derg was responsible for creating and maintaining the largest standing army in Africa EPRDF is responsible for initiating and implementing the largest down sizing of a National Army in the history of Africa. It is interesting to note that Dr. Tekeda Alemu, with a refreshing air of candidness in a speech delivered to the United Nations Security Council admitted " Ethiopia had one of the lowest expenditures on defense in the world, which comprised only 2% of our GDP. We thought we had only one enemy -poverty. That was the battle we wanted to wedge. Little did we know that our very manifest commitment to peace would make us in the eyes of those guided by the philosophy that might makes right, vulnerable to blackmail. Eritrea, Mr. Chairman, never thought that a country that has consciously avoided military build up would have the capacity to withstand Eritrea’s military onslaught." Given the evolving development of tensions that were visible - the refinery dispute, the border tension, economic tension, the Nakfa crisis along with the long standing historical antagonism . Contemporary observers are asking, did we encourage them by our action of demobilization and lack of military preparedness. However it should be left to historians to determine if Ethiopia’s unilateral massive down sizing has transmitted encouraging signals and invitation to the present aggression by Eritrea.

It is imperative to underscore Dr.Tekeba’s retrospective policy evaluation and admission of error to the whole world. A departure from the policy of defending the indefensible; it is a clear signal of political maturity and confidence. Hope other high level government officials will adopt his remarkable ingenuity and look the whole nation in the eye and tell us where mistakes were made and what corrective measures will be taken. Frank and candid discussion like this will create the ground work for genuine discussion and reconciliation.

Indeed there are a lot of questions that will be raised by contemporary and future historians. How did we get to this catastrophic mess? what are the major and minor contributing factors to the war ? What was the thinking behind EPLF to be so confident to launch this invasion? did Eritrea over estimated it’s power? why was Ethiopia caught off guard? as Melles said this was a stab on the back; why did Ethiopia failed to keep an eye and protect it’s back? why was the country in such a vulnerable position? why did Ethiopia failed to respond to the invasion immediately before giving ample time to the invading army to fortify its position in several key strategic areas ( Badem, Zella Ambessa , Tsorona ) that gave them the edge to inflict so much damage from a fixed position ?why didn’t we sent troops to unoccupied Eritrean territories and position ourselves strategically like Eritrea did on several fronts ; could this have given us more leverage and strategic parity ? may be less territories to recapture.

Historians will also be asking why did the international community failed to put all the necessary measures to enforce the OAU framework. In particular why did the west particularly the US that put the lives of American and European lives on the line to defend Kuwait hesitated to apply minimum economic pressure on Eritrea? Why did the US assigned this task to law level State Department officials like Susan Rice ( ill prepared for such mission ) and Antony Lake( certainly not a big gun); President Clinton by sending Secretary Of State or Cabinet level official would have transmitted a different message. Madline Albright, who is shuttling to Kossovo, the Middle East and other flash points could not even squeeze one short tripe to Ethiopia. Why did the US behind the seen put a pressure on EU members to be in line with Washington? With the exception of China, Russia, France and to some extent Great Britain there was a collective sympathy for Eritrea. The role of foreign journalist clear bias defies normal journalistic standard, in some cases acting like paid mercenaries.

Ethiopia with no foreign nation or institution coming to it’s rescue; members of international community giving just lip service to it’s appeal for peaceful resolution of the crisis; media showering rave review on the EPLF army instead of covering the gravity of the crisis; the enemy armed to the teeth, entrenched a in a well fortified position was not in the best of conditions to wage a war. The country had no choice but a war.

Notwithstanding this abject reality and deficiency the Ethiopian Government in mere nine months conducted the most impressive mobilization effort. The government created a new national army, resurrected the Air Force from the ashes , assembled some of the old fighters ( they sure were not rusted) to launch a counter offensive against the largest army in Africa that has not only sophisticated weapons but a strategic edge by positioning itself at the height of the Badme mountains . It was monumental task.

For Ethiopian to overcome this monumental task with a brilliant strategy and near flawless execution is nothing short of a miracle. Thank you Ethiopia and Defense Force and Thank you The Ethiopian Government .You deserve to be congratulated- you earned it! This military shock therapy would not have been possible without your dedication and commitment to Ethiopiawinet.

It is widely reported that Eritrea have 250 000 manpower, while Ethiopia has close to 300,000. This was not David Vs Goliath; any military strategist cant tell you that an attacking force must have at least 3:1 ratio to dig out an entrenched army , accordingly Ethiopia should have 750,000 man power. However, in this case there was parity in manpower. Eritrea had a competitive edge in location; Eritrea has a professional army that has been training for the last seven years while the EDF is a voluntary army with a training less than six months in some cases on the job training. With all the odds our army achieved a decisive military victory of significant importance as one western military commented "They took out a defense that the Eritreans took eight months to build," of course the only coverage of this victory by almost all media was echoing of Yemene Gebremeskel's memorable phrase "human waves" the victory was attributed to sheer demography as if the entire 60 million Ethiopians running across the order over 3 million population. I hope history will be kinder to our heroic fighters and may be those arm chair military strategist might pick up a lesson or two.

It is imperative to note that the war is not over. Wining one battle or the first round is not the end. There are more challenging and difficult days ahead; we should not underestimate the power of EPLF. It has the largest army in Africa . We should not over estimate our strength , least make the same error Isias committed; this is a war for dear life and survival of a nation. There are outside forces who have a vested interest and visibly scrambling to save EPLF, who are doing their very best in the diplomatic and military arena to change the course of history in the region.

Judging by the official reaction of the Eritrean government from president Isias "There was a mistake in our military position. We have to accept that, but we have learned from our mistake." In effect declaring that he is coming back. Regarding the Badme victory , he made the following comment "If they want to call that a total victory , well , then , congratulations, but they lost thousands of lives...we have never seen such losses in the history of this country." sending congratulation message to families who lost children is in human and in sensitive . By they way this a comment one hears from most Eriterians in the Diaspora , reminding us that they killed so many Ethiopian lives and enjoying every moment of it as it is customary in the streets of Asmara ; showing dead bodies as a trophy to western journalist is so inhuman an act that is customary among animals when they catch a prey; a seen Americans are accustomed to see on National Geography when a Chittta catches Antelope

Isias and EPLF are professional fighters; this generation of Eritreans have been taught from early childhood that power comes from the barrel of a gun; reason is synonymous with weakness. The philosophy of peaceful coexistence is treated like submission; this is a culture that displays visible jubilation when their media announce number of Ethiopians dead; it appears that the whole nation have a journal entry book keeping system to record each death, of course like an account who creates numbers to make an impressive finical statements, the EPLF behaves like it has a quarterly death quota it must meet and in the process take the liberty to throw numbers! When the death report is distributed of course un audited by independent sources the unsuspecting Eritreans go out to the street of Asmara like they are celebrating a big event and those in the US act like they are celebrating a Super Bowl or an Olympic victory; the role model of every Eritrean is a liberation fighter; this is a nation that does not teach it’s children to love and live in harmony. Unfortunately the west has such a distorted picture of Eritreans; hope truth will emerge; we hope Eritreans will take some action to undo what Isias has done to them.

This clear and present danger has the potential to destabilize the entire region and Africa. Therefore, the Ethiopian government must raise the consciousness of all responsible governments in the region to develop a coordinated strategy to contain and eliminate this potent force before it is too late. Ethiopia is not the only country exposed to Shabia virus- Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia and other African countries will not be immune from the virus. If we don't have a collective action plan, we will all be reduced to our lowest common denominator like Somalia. It is not a pleasant thought.

It will be gross violation of responsibility for any government to ignore these alarming war signals, and the inevitable consequences of future war. It is absolutely imperative to take all the necessary action to avert the potential danger clouding the region. Future generation of Ethiopians and Eritreans should not be subjected to another Badme.

For Ethiopians, the Badme victory is more than recapturing a territory. This was the first litmus test of our allegiance to ETHIOPIAWINET in a long time. The display of unity, love, bravery, heroism, determination and resolve collectively propelled the nation to destroy division disunity, and narrow nationalism. To Ethiopians Badame will be remembered as the victory of harmony over conflict, division over unity; Badme heralds the arrival of a new Ethiopia for the new millennium.; The victory of Badme generated empirical evidence to refute the hypothesis - Ethiopiawinet is dead.

This is a victory achieved by the Oromos, The Wellaytas, The Somalese, The Kembetas, The Ameharas, The Afares, The Tigreans, The Guragese, The Sedamose, .... This a victory for all. This is a collective victory. Badame has proved to us pride in our nationalities and pride in our Ethiopiawinet are not mutually exclusive.

BADME IS A SYMBOLIC VICTORY IT IS NOT A TOTAL VICTORY. Badme raises the specter of potential danger in the pipe line directed against Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti, and Kenya The victory of Badme will not give assurance regarding the future of Ethiopia. If the war stops here with Isia’s military intact - Ethiopia’s security will be at his mercy. Further more the specter of military threat will be a serious impediment to development . It will force us to allocate scarce resources to the military; thereby ignoring illiteracy, agriculture etc.

Recapturing territory taken by force is not a total victory for Ethiopia, as some would have us believe . Eriterans and their allies truly want us to celebrate this as the final victory and go back to the status quo ante. Isyas and his friends know this so well that they are begging and asking all their friends to put all the pressures they can muster on Ethiopia to accept the OAU framework which is reduced to a historical foot note, no longer a peace proposal for resolving the crisis. We have now a set of new issues not addressed by the document: the loss of human lives, dislocation, material cost, opportunity cost ...the aggressor is fully responsible.

How do we arrive acceptable figures for war repartitions ? let us assume that Eritrea the aggressor shall be responsible for all direct and indirect cost say approximately 100 billion Ethiopian BIR , let us further assume Ethiopia the plaintiff takes this to International Court ( there must be a jury screening) and get compensation damage 90billion dollars ; Eritrea which is a welfare state sustained by contribution form citizens abroad with no foreign reserve in effect a country that has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy . this is not an academic discussion this is the reality . It is a very common occurrence in the US where a jury awards a plaintiff substantial compensation but a defendant in a bankruptcy with no asset .Remember the famous OJ Simpson case where the Jury awards the Goldmans 50million ; poor Godmans have to settle for funds collected after the liquidation his personal asset ? My question to Ethiopian leaders who have stipulated this provision what are your going

to do in the event of none performance on payment ? May be other form of payment?

Resorting to the status quo ante is a victory for Eritrea for several reasons; I will cite two principal reasons. First, Eritrea's demand for internationally accepted border will attain full legitimacy and recognition that will lead to internationally monitored and certified resolution of the border conflict with the full weight of the UN and OAU. AS Isias said it is the responsibility of his government to resolve the border conflict and secure a new deed of trust free of all encumbrances . In so doing Eritrea will secure a clear title to the land free of claim and clouds; no future Ethiopian government can renounce.

Second, Isias and his Hammasen clique have been profoundly disturbed by the post independence behavior of the Eritrean middle class and business community; this community has shown a distinct preference for every thing Ethiopian. For many Eritreans , Ethiopia presents better opportunities, rewarding investment climate ,conducive social atmosphere , access to potential market , more purchasing power, better climate . It is not uncommon to see even the die-hard Eritereans in the Diaspora when they go back for one-month visit; the most they can tolerate Asmera was three days! they catch the first flight to get the hell out of Asmera .

To Isias, this was cultural Imperialism at it’s worst; Isias was determined to create an

an Eritrean National Identity by eradicating everything that is Ethiopian -virtually impossible except by genetic engineering or mutations. EPLF was determine to create a new Eritrea identity - a new policy to eliminate Ethiopian influence emerged as a burning issue; they realized that seven years of political independence have not eradicated Ethiopia’s cultural and Economic dominance and a new radical measure has to be taken

- even with all the risks associated with it. The introduction of the Naka against all the economic arguments was introduced to advance the cause of a new identity. The full-scale invasion is part of the over all strategy.

Mr. Isias who is shopping for a new identity is pushing Eritrea to join the Arab League; the collective conversion of the High land Christians to Islam in the making; the Islamic fundamentalism must love it, Isias shall be renamed Mohammed Ayatollah...this is a man visibly tortured with a defective ego on journey to inflict a damage to the collective Ego of a nation ; like a parent passing his neurosis to unsuspecting child- unfortunately the entire mob following him ; it is a sad commentary to see a human wave of Eriterians blindly following him ( to use Yemane Gebremeskel’s phrase) . Eriterans who have been silenced for so long afraid to challenge the Isias doctrine; reducing them selves to parrots repeating the official doctrine will wake up and stand up for liberty, freedom and justice. Be part of the movement to change the status quo. However pessimism should not prevail -there is a new hope for this young nation, ERITREA under the ELF.

For Ethiopia to claim victory the following conditions must be realized:

Eritrea must unconditionally withdraw from all occupied territories;

Surrender all military hard ware in war zone area.

Eritrea must agree to fully compensate the cost incurred by Ethiopia and provide a collateral in the event of default on their payment.

Ethiopia must have accesses to the Red Sea.

Eritrea must agree and sign to be a demilitarized zone not to acquire offensive capability weapons that can be used to attack its neighbors.

A buffer zone must be created.

Eritrea must agree not to sign a defense pact with outside power like Egypt or Libya; any third party . No country should be allowed to have a base , particularly that can pose a security threat to Ethiopia.

Eritrea must agree not to acquire biological and other weapons that are banned.

Eritrea must agree not to engage directly or indirectly in any destabilizing activities against Ethiopian citizens and Ethiopian assets in side our outside the country.

Eritrea must renounce interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and terminate all activities providing military training or logistical support to destabilizing forces

Eritrea must agree not to interfere in the internal affair of all neighboring countries

Eritrea must take full responsibility for removing all mines planted and the cost l associated with the mines

Ethiopia can only demand and exert these preconditions for peace only if it emerges the undisputed winner of this war. Given the cost of this war in lost human lives it will be extremely difficult to justify going back to the status quo ante as a victory .

The government must ask - What happened? And what will happen? The government’s war and negotiation strategy must be based on the answer to these critical questions. The government should identify all the possible course of actions Eritrea can take, the probabilities of occurrence associated with each outcome and the corresponding costs and risks associated to Ethiopia. These analysis should serve as a basis to devise a new blue print, war and negotiation strategies.

In the past Ethiopia’s policy with Eritrea was based on trust and good will of the Eritrean leadership. We violated the principle - trust but verify; we are paying a heavy price for it. We all must learn, on matters of this significant " The Government knows better" philosophy is not a prudent course. After all it is the people who are contributing resources and putting their lives on the line, it is only logical and reasonable that the end game strategy of the war must reflect the collective wisdom of a cross section of the Ethiopian peoples. There must be a complete meeting of the mind between the government and the people.

Badme has planted the seeds of unity and harmony. We have a responsibility to nurture the seeds of unity, cherish it we must. In the new sprite of Badme reconciliation, bridge building among all Ethiopian must begin with earnest. The government, those in the opposition and the large majority who are sitting on the sideline must work together; we must find a common ground to build on our achievement. The challenge ahead is monumental; all of us must take part in the reengineering of the new Ethiopia. Let us play our role in influencing the course of Ethiopian history.

Governing is an art it is not a science: it requires vision to see the future, courage to tolerate dissenting views, wisdom to reflect and above all the honesty and the courage to accept mistakes and the flexibility to take corrective action. In this sprit I appeal to the government, the opposition and to those who are sitting on the side line to do what ever you can to help Ethiopia to become a land of peace and prosperity for all.

The government must give careful attention to the demands of those in the opposition and the demands of the silent majority who are currently on the periphery of Ethiopian politics. Their demand for release of prisoners, transparency in government, the neutrality of the states, equal participation in designing the blue print for the country’s future can not be ignored. These are legitimate demands that must be addressed and examined with genuine effort to resolve all outstanding issues.

With respect to prisoners the state has a moral and a constitutional obligation to present it’s case and conduct a fair trial. To arrest individuals and put them in jail for extended period before their case is tried is turning justice on its head. Further more, to subject prisoners and their family to endless court rescheduling is a violation of ones right for due process. How can one justify rescheduling of a court hearing for seven years! The government’s action on this regard is hurting the image of the country. At one time the west view of Ethiopia was starvation only to be replaced by war and human right violations. I recall a discussion once I had with an American investment banker when I asked him why the private sector in the west is not interested in investing in Africa he said to me no matter what investment law you have in your books we judge a government by how it treats it’s people. What is even more disturbing is that many fine and accomplished Ethiopians in science, engineering, business, medicine, computer science tell me that they have the desire to go back and serve their country but given the present conditions they would stay here. This is the information age, human capital is the single important component for development. The US which have realized this has modified it’s immigration laws to attract qualified workers. Ethiopia if it is to compete with America for its own citizens, it better have at least the minimum conditions to attract trained resources. People have options which they will exercise to realize the optimum benefit for themselves; a country that provides the minimum return with high risk will not be treated as an attractive market by individuals, institutions and entities.

We must all be united to bring an end to petty division and fight for democracy, human right and good governance. Those who put precondition for their support - Remember you can only fight for human right and democracy when you have a country; with holding much needed material and moral support in time of war is a position that must be examined and scrutinized. What do you say to the soldier who is dying in Badme, Zelambesa and Tsorona?

In the battle to win the heart and minds of policy makers in various parts of the world we must stand together. Ethiopians in the Diaspora must utilize all resources at their disposal to advance the cause of Ethipiawinet and Economic development .The Ethiopians in the diaspora are in a unique strategic position to provide material and logistical and public relation support. However, the government must invite them to take part in developing a blue print for the country;

The government must realize that it can not just invite them for the implementation of a plan they have not been a partner in shaping; it must solicit and invite their participation in developing the plan. The government should not under estimate the role they can play .If they truly believe in the mission and the vision of the country they would be an active player; on the contrary if they don’t believe in the governments program, they will seat on the sideline - passive opposition. Others will engage in active opposition. This is a loose scenario.

Both the Government and the Ethiopians in the diaspora have historical obligation to reassess their respective position in the context of the new political reality in the country. We must open channel of communication and find common ground. I hope this message will provoke others to think and discuss issues in a civilized manner.

Unfortunately, every one has set his own preconditions; for instance some government officials would only engage in discussing issues only with individuals or groups that endorse their view. a government official who represent the country must stop acting like a party cadre; as a civil servant he has an obligation to listen to all Ethiopians. Some in the opposition have adopted a political culture that is undemocratic. Every organization feel so strongly about it’s position that any view that is not in full conformity is treated with suspicion. The level of suspicion prevalent has created a paranoia - a culture of suspicion everybody spying on everybody; every body scrutinizing every body to the point Ethiopian politics has become like a Russian roulette this culture has turned off so many Ethiopians and running away from their country and their people.

Ethiopians in the diaspora must rise above politics. This is a matter of life and death for the country. However, you might disagree with the politics of the government, do not stop your support to your brothers and sisters who are putting their life on the line. Governments come and go; Ethiopia has been around for three thousand years; it must continue to exist. When the very existence of the country is being challenged we have a historical obligation to put aside, to submerge our differences and come to the rescue of the Enate Hager. This is not an event that occurs on a daily basis, Adwa took place 103 years ago, there will not be another Badme to be an active player in the making of history. We should not always sit and read history; let us have the wisdom and the courage to make history.

Based on my unscientific opinion polling of Ethiopians in the US, there is a genuine desire for reconciliation. It takes two to tango...let us all join hands and dance to Badme tune.

Before I depart from the seen, let me share with you an observation that caught my attention in Washington DC. In celebration of the 103 Adwa Deli in a local restaurant we were watching a musical video concert performance, by Mohamed Ahemed, Tilahun Gessase and Tamerat Molla to the National Defense Force in Badme...in that crowd I saw the unity and diversity of Ethiopia ...all nationalities together as a cohesive unit for a single purpose to affirm their Ethiopiawinet it was a moving event that brought uncontrollable tears of joy, sandiness and celebration to many in the audience. As I look around in the room, for the first time in many years I saw Oromose, Ameharas, Tigreans, Guragese, Gojames, Kembatans...celebrating the victory of Adwa and Badme in Washington DC, toasting with the new drink that was introduced in the bar by a creative Ethiopian bar tender -Badme shot. Though it was a small gathering it was at least a start.

Ethiopia does not have many friends as we all have painfully watched the indifference of the world community to our suffering. Therefore we have a moral and historical obligation to be united and rescue our beloved country- MOTHER ETHIOPIA .Let us seize the opportunity to make history.

If this article offends any one, my apology. I have no political affiliation; I do not belong to any organizations; I am not a candidate to be recruited by any organization. There are many like me who are not happy with the way Ethiopian politics is conducted and are on the side line; they are substantial in number but don't have any organization to articulate their view, frustration and suggestion. I hope one-day tolerance, understanding and civility will prevail so every one can participate without fear of being subjected for not articulating the correct politics of the day. Although the government is accused for lack of tolerance; my observation is that almost all-political organizations have a dismal record when it comes to tolerance of dissenting views. The visible lack of tolerance in our culture has scared the hell out of many people who could have contributed so much.

Unfortunately Ethiopians who are not comfortable with the overall situation have opted to leave the country - a tragic exodus never seen in the history of the country this migration started under the DERG still continuing. When I visited Ethiopia about a year ago I went to visit a high school and the University to talk some of the students; most of them without exaggeration dream of some day going to the US or other countries not just for higher learning; I mean to permanently leave the country. People who work in various institutions also expressed similar view. Of course I can't criticize them I am one of those Ethiopians who have decided to live in the states.

Ethiopians in the US are trying to explore ways to contribute to their country in whatever avenue they can without being a member of a party or organization. There are many who are frustrated that they can't participate in the shaping of the country. When I tell my seventy-year-old mother I care about the country; she tells me that we are the selfish generation interested only in enhancing our self-interest. Like modern capitalists national boundaries does not exist any more; like the modern capitalists who is willing to relocate his factory where there is cheap labor and access to raw material. The new generation Ethiopian is more interested in identifying opportunities in countries that are far away in distance and culture than his home land; in this respect he is in the company of people in the third world who are looking for economic opportunity and political freedom- a sad commentary on our generation.

I don't want to give the impression that there are no Ethiopians left who wish to live and serve their country- there are. In fact I once had dinner with my cousin who was educated in the west - a scientist who left a high paying job. I asked him how he feels; he told me that in the US he could make in one year salary and bonus what he can make in his life time as a government civil servant, he paused for a minute and told me that - " the love of my people offsets the difference; though vanishing breed on the endangered, list a mere presence of a man like him gives you a glimpse of hope.

I just wanted to high light some of the controversial issues floating in Ethiopia based on my discussion with a number of Ethiopians in the US and Europe. I am not a political scientist or a historian; in fact this is the first article I have ever written on Ethiopia. I don't care about the ethnic background of Ethiopian rulers, so long as they firmly believe in Ethiopiawinet and practice good governance; subscribes to genuine democracy, multi party system, you remember that famous line -I don’t care about the color of a cat as long as it catches a mice. That is my philosophy -PRAGMATISM. I hope and pray one-day Ethiopia will get such a cat- I call it the Abysinian Cat.

In conclusion I sincerely appeal to all Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia to reach out and do what ever you can to help the country in this critical period. The issue is not weather we have representative democracy or not; the issue is weather Ethiopia will exist or cease to exist; the issue is not Melese is good or bad; the issue is are we going to have a country or not . The issue is not weather EPRDF is right or wrong; the issue is the country fighting for the right or the wrong cause. This is a legitimate war for the right cause, for self defense - this is a war for survival of the nations. Add 3 lines…

This is not to suggest that issues raised by critiques of the government are no longer valid. These issues remain relevant and outstanding as long as they are not addressed satisfactorily. Wisdom and reason must prevail; issues and actions need to be prioritized to reflect and correspond to the new reality.

Critiques of the conspiracy theory will like to hear what Dr. Negagaso Gidada said on the war objective of Ethiopia, "Ethiopians should continue with their determined efforts to popularize, once and for all the Isis regime’s conspiracy against the country’s sovereignty and development. " Indeed if this objective is realized the conspiracy theorists will be....

WE HAVE A MORAL AND HISTORICAL OBLIGATION TO RESPOND TO A CALL OF DUITY. WHEREEVER YOU ARE YOU CAN PARTICIPATE IN YOUR OWN WAY. WE MUST STAND UNITED TO DEFEND OUR COUNTRY. AFTER VICTORY WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO DEBATE AND DEVLOP A NEW BLUE PRINT THAT REFLECTS THE NEW REALITY IN ETHIOPIA.

God Bless Ethiopia

Allah bless Ethiopia

Tsegaye