Times of London
June 11, 1998
[Note: Sam Killey has a long association with the EPLF and should not be mistaken for an objective reporter]
Eritreans, despite an Ethiopian air and sea blockade of their country, are confident that the enemy has again underestimated them, Sam Kiley writes
STANDING by his luxury Toyota Land Cruiser, its white paint and windows covered with a camouflage layer of mud and cow dung, Mengith, one of Eritrea's new yuppies, an Internet junkie and communications engineer, was in a philosophical mood before heading for the front line.
"The Ethiopians, I think, made a bit of a mistake. They underestimated how militant our population is," he said.
Sporting the nearest thing to a military outfit he has worn since he fought in the Eritrean People's Liberation Front in the 1970s as a 15-year-old, he shrugged off the suggestion that his tiny country could not outlast Ethiopia in a protracted war.
"You have to understand, even our President does not have bodyguards. We are all his bodyguards, we are all soldiers, men and women, and we are all prepared to fight for our independence," he said, tipping back a khaki hat more suitable for a tourist in Kenya than a soldier.
Smoothing the creases in his off-white chinos, he explained that he had returned to his homeland after almost a decade in New Jersey, working for the American telephone giant AT&T. "I came back to make it work, to make money, and serve in my country," he said. "Things were going very well until this mess. Perhaps it is better that we get it over with now - sort out the borders once and for all."
Then he leapt into the £30,000 vehicle, and roared off to a front line that the day before had been pounded by thousands of mortars, artillery shells and missiles in a bloody battle for Zalambessa. His easygoing commitment to the Eritrean cause may be matched by the fighting spirit of the mainly ethnic Tigréans recently mobilised to swell the Ethiopian Army's ranks. But in the long run the Ethiopians are less likely to have the stomach for a conflict over what amounts to useless strips of rock and scrub along the disputed border.
If the conflict does drag on, however - and there are very few signs of a negotiated settlement - the Eritreans may have to tighten their belts. Ethiopia has blocked all commercial air traffic into Eritrea and threatened to shoot down chartered aircraft, including those carrying journalists. Eritrea's giant southern neighbour has also cut off most shipping coming into Masawa, the main port, with the threat of air attack. A net importer of almost all food, including the staple diet of njera, a pancake-like dish made from fermented grass seed which grows only in Ethiopia, newly independent Eritrea can ill afford a war. In financial terms, conflict will be ruinous.
Only five years old, and seen as a paragon of good governance by Western donors, Eritrea's future looked harsh but hopeful before fighting started early last month. A highly disciplined population, brought up to endure the harsh semi-desert climate, has backed enthusiastically the mobilisation of 60,000 people for reforestation and other public works. They think nothing of 18 months' compulsory national service, and endorse the self-help philosophy of their leaders.
But a Third World country cannot live on good intentions alone, not in peace time, and not in war. The evacuation of almost all foreigners earlier this week will set back plans to develop a Red Sea tourist trade, and aid is unlikely to flow in while Eritrea prosecutes a war of bewildering provenance.
Yemane Gebremeskel, the government spokesman, confirmed official concern over the air and sea blockade. He said the international community should pressure Ethiopia to lift its threat.
In military terms, Ethiopia has the overwhelming numerical edge, with about 600 battle tanks compared with Eritrea's few dozen. But Eritrea is almost impregnable. Its mountains suit neither tanks nor jets, rather favouring dedicated infantrymen, like those who fought for 30 years to win independence.
With a per capita income of £100 a month, Eritrea's Government is unlikely to invest in second-hand MiGs with a price tag of about £3 million. But it does have people like Mengith, prepared once again to take to the hills and fight for as long as it takes.
"The tragedy of this war is that it could go on for years. Both sides know about commitment. For the Eritreans, it is probably the only word they can understand at a time like this," said a clergyman in the Orthodox Church, a religion shared, like most other cultural assets, by both sides.
The fighting around Badme came after Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, declared that he would not restrict any counter-offensive to Zalambessa in the east, where a bloody battle on Tuesday claimed large numbers of lives on both sides. He was enraged by Eritrea's success in Zalambessa, indisputably inside Ethiopia, after a massive Ethiopian attack was repulsed. Analysts in Asmara, the Eritrean capital, said yesterday that Mr Meles had obviously ordered his generals to seize Eritrean territory around Badme so that it could be used as a bargaining chip in any peace negotiations.
They also expect him to launch an offensive around Asab, Eritrea's second Red Sea port. An Ethiopian victory there would be a major blow to Asmara, and would give Ethiopia its own access to the sea for the first time since Eritrea won independence in 1993.
The Ethiopian strategy, clearly aimed at stretching the smaller Eritrean forces to their limits along a border more than 1,000 miles long, was accompanied yesterday by artillery salvoes against Eritrean forces inside their own territory.
The fighting around Badme is likely to be treacherous because the normally rocky terrain has been recently inundated with heavy rains, turning the area into swamps, swelling rivers and cutting off road access to the border for both sides. The sudden deluge is unlikely to favour either side.
Missiles landing on boggy land are less damaging to infantry and big guns, and will force commanders to rely heavily on manpower to dislodge their enemies from trenches that are difficult to approach even with tanks.
"The fighting in Badme will be very bitter, very ugly, hand-to-hand, and lots of bayonet charges," said a Middle Eastern diplomat who has been based in Asmara for decades and was a witness to the conflict during Eritrea's 30-year war of independence against Ethiopia.
The escalating border conflict has been matched with a strident propaganda campaign against Eritreans living in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. Local newspapers have been running stories for weeks portraying Eritreans, many of whom are employed in government, as thieves, lunatics and spies. This week Addis Ababa claimed that 3,000 Ethiopians living in Asmara had been ordered to leave Eritrea and their possessions had been confiscated.
But there is no evidence of any significant anti-Ethiopian feeling in Asmara, where the Government launched a publicity counter-attack yesterday, saying that "the more than 100,000 Ethiopians residing in Eritrea continue to live and work as before".
In Senafe on Tuesday, I witnessed the arrest of an alleged Ethiopian spy. The young man stood out from the crowd because of his features, typical of Ethiopia's majority Oromo tribe. He was suspected because he appeared lost in the town about 15 miles north of the front line. The youth, wearing a nylon sports shirt and tracksuit bottoms, was trapped by civilians before being beaten and slung into the back of an Eritrean army lorry heading for the front.
"Will he be shot?" an Eritrean official from the Ministry of Information was asked. "No. He's just a small boy. They gave him a dollar or two and just sent him out into the wilderness. He'll be made a prisoner of war," the official replied.
Eritrea claims to have captured more than 100 Ethiopians. Some have been seen apparently in good health but Asmara has so far refused the International Committee of the Red Cross, or foreign journalists, access to them.