From: quiltrept@aol.com (QuiltRept)
Date: 15 Jun 1998
Newsgroups: soc.culture.ethiopia.misc

An agreement was just announced between Ethiopia and Eritrea to refrain from aerial attacks and threats to do so. The announcer was none other than the White House, with due credit given to the Italians who brokered the deal.

Eritrea seems to be the initial winner in this deal because, with bombing threats from Ethiopia now removed, the business of maritime and aerial trade with the outside world can resume.

One wonders, then, what is in it for Ethiopia? Why agree to throw away your big stick?

Even though this is not made public to save Eritrean face, it seems reasonable to assume that Isaayas has agreed to the US-Rwanda peace plan and is ready to pull out in return. There could be no other explanation that would motivate Ethiopia to agree to such a one sided deal.

Long term outcomes from the confrontation:

1) Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea will never be the same and there could be other confrontations and wars.

2) Eritrea becomes a big loser because it has been shown to be belligerent and barbaric for bombing civilians.

3) Ethiopia becomes a winner because of its cool headed approach in the course of the conflict.

4) Ethiopia could be perceived as lacking an airforce and a pushover by other states in the region.

5) Ethiopia lost a chance to reclaim the port of Assab.

Final note: This thing is not over yet.

Quilt (of faces, languages, cultures and beliefs)