quiltrept@aol.com
Soon after leaders from four African countries and the secretary general of the OAU announced that talks at ending hostilities have failed, Agence France Press is reporting that artillery fire is being exchanged between Ethiopia and Eritrea at the Zalambessa battle front.
The unfolding event was expected, especially given Meles Zenawi's ominous reply to reporters yesterday that the Eritreans have to pay for their bombing of civilians. The news out of Eritrea today by Esayas Afewerki accusing Ethiopia of breaking the airstrike moratorium by advising commercial airliners that they notify Ethiopia 10 minutes prior to entering Eritrean airspace was also further evidence that war was imminent.
The start of this war, like any war, is very unfortunate, due to lives that will be lost on both sides. Sadly, the best efforts do not seem to have an effect in averting it, and the two sides are set to fight it out.
First, analysis the probable reasons for both parties to agreeing to cessation of airstrikes is in order
As they have stated numerous times, the Eriteans clearly wanted the international community to pressure Ethiopia to lift the air and maritime blockade it had "imposed" on Eritrea because, not only was Eritrea hurting economically, but its image as an independent nation able to secure its interests was being put into question because the conduct of its own affairs was being forcefully dictated by another. The Eritreans' lobby bore fruit and the diplomatic community did indeed pressure Ethiopia to agree to the cessation of airstrikes.
What did not apprear clear in the beginning, however, was why Ethiopia would give in to international pressure and agree to the deal. It now seems evident that Ethiopia needed the relative peace that accompanied the cessation of airstrikes so that it can reinforce its front lines. An even more important reason, however, was the business of declawing Eritreans within Ethiopia it saw as security threats.
True to the inextricale position the two sides locked themselves into, with Ethiopia setting Eritrean withdrawal as a precondition, and the Eritreans equally forociously stating they will not leave, the two sides are now set to fight the "mother of all battles."
It will remain a mystery for some time to come why Eritrea felt it could successfully claim land which was, if not owned, atleast administered by Ethiopia as implicitly attested to by the US-Rwanda peace team. Once it had locked itself into that position, however, it was very difficult for Eritrea to back down without losing face and appearing weak, thereby encouraging subsequent future attacks from neighbors with axes to grind.
On the Ethiopian side, there were several factors that came into play. The first of these, and maybe the most important because of the emotional aspect attached to it, is the bombing of Ethiopian civilians by Eritrea at Makalle and Adigrat, cities in Tigray.
TPLF, the leading member of the ruling coalition in Ethiopia, hails from the province of Tigray. Because of this fact, its members would, naturally, be expected to react more strongly to the bombing.
The Ethiopian side also knows that since the border conflict is not really at the heart of the dispute, but rather economy is, resolving the border conflict now is no guarantee for avoiding future confrontations. Because of more resources it can command to support the war effort and also the larger number of fighters at its disposal, the Ethiopian side feels, understandably, it can punish Eritrea and give it a lesson to remember in the future.
It may be important to note that the legend of the superior fighting ability of the Eritreans, based on their 30 year war and its successful culmination in their favor, may end up hurting them. In its unending search for drama, the western media may ultimately be responsible for dramatizing the heroism of the Eritreans, inflating their ego, and leading them the wrong path which will culminate in their very likely defeat in this war.
What many people lose sight of is the fact that the Eritreans are not a different breed. They are no better than, but only as good as, the Tigreans who are just as deadly because, to quote Mengistu Hailemariam, former dictator of Ethiopia, "they are the same people."
The people of the entire region, that is, Ethiopians, are good warriors. One only needs to consider their victory over a then-modern European power, Italy, at Adowa a hundered years ago.
Therefore, do not expect a "miracle" from the Eritreans in this war. They are more than matched by their opponents, who hail from Tigray and, presumably, from all over Ethiopia.
It is too premature to talk about what happens at the conclusion of the war and possible scenarios at this moment, but suffice it to say that the victor will have a lot to say about it. That will also be a subject of another report.
Quilt (of faces, languages, cultures and beliefs)
quiltrept@aol.com