Despite the claims from both sides that this war will be short, I fear that we are in for a long drawn-out series of battles that could go for six months or longer.

The situation on the ground currently favors the Eritreans. They have apparently been planning for this eventuality for some time now. In addition, their supply lines are far shorter, and cover paved roads.

Ethiopia is way behind in terms of preparations for war. We are still in the process of basic mobilization and re-forming units. Thanks to Meles Zenawi's previous complete trust in the Eritreans, nothing was done to prepare for the defense of the northern border. On top of that, the Eritrean military leadership was allowed great access to the military command in Ethiopia…. Eritrean airforce pilots were trained at Debre Zeit in Ethiopia... Eritrean intelligence teams operated almost freely inside Ethiopia, assasinating dissident Eritreans and monitoring developments at Assaita (Afar State) through their consulate there…. etc… etc…

As a result, the Eritrean military probably has excellent insight into any Ethiopian military operations that might take place.

Currently, there is a danger of the Ethiopian army being caught in a pincer movement between Badime and Zalambessa. The Eritrean army in this area almost certainly outnumbers the currently available Ethiopian forces.

I hope the Ethiopian military refrains from direct frontal attacks on the fortified Eritrean military positions. We need patience. It will take several months before the Ethiopian army is ready to carry out serious offensive manouevres to outflank the Eritreans.

In the meantime, it is best to stick with the air war which has been quite succesful so far. Eritrea is isolated, and its economy at a standstill - simply because of two days of air raids.

- Dagmawi