MEASURING ECONOMIC GROWTH

I.  Total production is a measure of an economy's growth

II. We use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to measure production

III. GDP: the total dollar value of all final goods/services produced within a country each year
    A. goods/services multiplied by their prices (essentially Q x P)

    B. 3 parts to consider
        1. Final Output
            a. only "final goods" are counted in the GDP
            b. "intermediate goods" (things used to make something else) are not counted in order to avoid duplication by counting an item twice
        2. Current Year
            a. secondhand sales are not counted
            b. those items were counted during the year they were originally sold
        3. Within a nation's borders
            a. counts production regardless of who owns it
            b. DOES count foreign businesses operating in US
            c. DOES NOT count Coca-Cola factory in Brazil

IV. Real v. Nominal GDP
    A. Nominal (current) GDP: uses current prices and is not adjusted for price increases
        1. w/out adjusting, GDP appears to grow every year

    B. Real GDP: adjusted for prices changes
        1. Real GDP allows us to see if actual production changed
 


BUSINESS CYCLES

I. Business Cycle: change in economy's activity

II. 4 Stages
    A. Expansion/recovery: GDP increases and unemployment decreases

    B. Peak: GDP reaches highest point

    C. Contraction: GDP starts to decline and unemployment rises
        1. recession: GDP declines for 6 consecutive months
        2. depression: severe and long recession

    D. Trough: GDP reaches its lowest point and starts to go back up
   *cycle starts all over again

III. Causes of Business Cycle
    A. Consumer Expectations
        1. if recession is near, people save more and spend less = GDP declines
        2. opposite is also true (in good times, people spend more = GDP rises)

    B. Money/Credit
        1. if interest rates are low, it is cheaper for people to borrow money to spend = GDP rises
        2. opposite is also true

    C. Business Investment
        1. more investment in capital, labor, and technology = more production = GDP rises

    D. External Factors
        1. events in world affect US economy
        2. high oil prices led to energy crisis and US recession in mid 1970s and early 1980s.
        3. businesss cut production and people bought less = GDP declined
        4. "war is good for business"
            a. every US war of the 20th Century (except the Gulf War) produced a huge economic boom
            b. the govt. typically spends a lot of money on wars, which produces jobs = GDP rises

IV. Predicting Business Cycles (indicators to watch)
    A. GDP
    B. new houses
    C. consumer confidence
    D. saving v. spending
    E. unemployment rates

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