FLORIDA'S HURRICANE ZONE
FLORIDA'S HURRICANE ZONE
CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS
ATLANTIC STORM NAMES
The  Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

*Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt). Storm surge 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

*Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

*Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt ). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

*Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

*Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt ). Storm surge greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destructon of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.
CURRENT STORMS
LOCAL RADARS FROM WARNING/WATCH AREA
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The 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season looks like it will continue to have a concentration of activity in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Probably a little more of the Cape Verde type storms than last year, but still below normal for this region of origin. Cooling of the current moderate Pacific El Nino has already started - the El Nino is non-continuous west of 175E longitude. This cooling trend should continue with ENSO sea surface temperatures becoming neutral by June (perhaps even May) and remaining neutral for the remainder of 2003. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions should favor a slightly above average season - as follows:

Total Named Storms: 11
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2

Monthly distribution: June/July: 1, August: 3, September: 5 or 6, October: 2 or 1

Above normal landfall threat for the entire Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean islands, and south Florida and the Keys. The best analog years for the 2003 season are 1970, 1959 and 1978. If El Nino holds on into mid summer, the season will be less active, however, most rapidly warming El Nino's also rapidly decline (there have been a couple of exceptions in the past). Normal threat for the southeast U.S. and slightly less than normal for the eastern Caribbean islands.
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Above-Average Hurricane Activity Forecasted For 2003

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - Next year's Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to have twice as many storms as in 2002, the nation's leading hurricane forecast team said Friday.
In their first forecast for the 2003 season, Colorado State University professor William Gray and his associates said they expect 12 named storms between June 1 and Nov. 30. Of these storms, eight will become hurricanes and three will evolve into intense hurricanes.

The average is 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

``Information we have obtained and analyzed through November indicates that 2003 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season with above-average activity,'' Gray said. ``We expect Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be about 140 percent of average this upcoming year.''

Of the 12 named storms in 2002, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes developed.

Gray said the increased activity predicted for 2003 is due in large part to a predicted termination of current El Nino conditions and an anticipation of warm sea surface temperatures in the north and tropical Atlantic.

A moderate El Nino and uncharacteristically cool temperatures in the tropical Atlantic helped to inhibit hurricane activity in 2002, he said.

Gray and his team also call for an increased probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States in 2003.

According to the forecast, there is a 68 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2003, compared to last century's average probability of 52 percent.

Along the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 48 percent. For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 38 percent.

During the last eight years, four of the 29 major hurricanes came ashore. The storm seasons spanning 1995-2002 comprised the most active eight consecutive hurricane years on record. The Colorado State team said 2002 was a temporary deviation from the long-period average.
LOCAL CAMS FROM WARNING/WATCH AREA

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SUPPLY CHECKLIST
This is a basic list of things you should have during hurricane season. In case you have to evacuate and go to a shelter there is a list at the bottom of this page of items you should take with you.

A supply of bottled water (one gallon per person per day).

A supply of non-perishable package foods and canned foods (at least a three-day supply).

Water purification tablets(halazone).

A manual can opener and utility knife.

Disposable plates, cups,utensils, and paper towels.

A first-aid kit.

A battery-powered radio, 2-inch to 5-inch TV, flashlight and plenty of batteries.

Cash or traveler's checks.

Signal flare.

waterproof matches.

Charcole and lighter fluid or full gas tank.

Pet food and supplies.

Masking or duct tape.

Non-electric clock.

Ice chest and ice.

Lamp or lantern with fuel supply.


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SHELTER CHECKLIST
Cash

Blankets or sleeping bags

First aid kit

Portable radio, flashlight and extra batteries

Snack foods

Special dietary foods

Glasses, checkbook, credit cards, driver's license

Non-electric can opener

Bottled water

Four days' clothing

Canned or dried food

Canned liquids

Baby food and diapers

Medicine

Books, cards, games and children's toys
SUPPLY CHECKLIST

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