RUNNING THE NUMBERS: ELECTION 2004

Running the Numbers is on hiatus, and may remain so permanently. To make a long story short, I simply don't have time to keep up with all the polls, and many of the recent ones from Rasmussen in particular are tracking polls, which are tougher to figure into my formula without giving them undue weight compared to the others. In addition, I have become acutely aware of what an imprecise science polling seems to be in light of the many recent fluctuations and inconsistencies, and I'm not convinced this is necessarily providing much of an accurate picture anyway. I might come back after the election and calculate one-month averages for all the most recent ones just to see how close my formula comes in the end, but there's a good chance I won't update any more until then. For now, I'll leave the most recent update (the one from 9/11/04) on the site.

Thanks to everyone who visited over the past six months, and I encourage you all to check out the other number-crunching sites that I have linked below.


Scenario as of 9/11/04: Bush 275, Kerry 263
Solid + Leaning Electoral Votes: Kerry 233, Bush 207
Solid Electoral Votes: Kerry 190, Bush 172

Bush 275, Kerry 263

Democratic Pick-ups
Colorado, New Hampshire

Republican Pick-ups
Wisconsin

States Recently Changing Hands
Colorado to Kerry (9/10)
Florida to Bush (9/8)
Tennessee to Bush (9/8)**

All Recent Changes

Arizona: leaning red to solid red (9/10)
Colorado: weak red to weak blue (9/10)
Pennsylvania: leaning blue to weak blue (9/10)
Florida: weak blue to weak red (9/8)
Minnesota: weak blue to leaning blue (9/8)
Missouri: weak red to leaning red (9/8)
New Mexico: weak blue to leaning blue (9/8)
Tennessee: weak blue to leaning red (9/8)**
West Virginia: weak red to solid red (9/8)**
Minnesota: leaning blue to weak blue (9/6)
New Mexico: leaning blue to weak blue (9/6)


Skip to the latest updates & commentary

Overview

The purpose of this site is to collect the available Bush vs. Kerry state-by-state polling data and offer some informed speculation as to how these numbers, if accurate, might affect the outcome of the 2004 election. I do not use sophisticated statistical analyses or nationwide polls, only statewide polls and the results from the 2000 election. Thus, unlike the Election Projection site, I am not offering a "projection" of what will actually happen in November 2004, but rather a sort of best-guess scenario along the lines of "If the election were held today...." If more than one poll is available for the state, I calculate the weighted average of those recent enough to be relevant. A state in which the Zogby Interactive polls constitute the majority of the data is marked with an asterisk; a state in which ZI constitute all of the data is marked with two asterisks. (For explanation of weighted averages and the use of the Zogby polls, see below: How these numbers are calculated.)

DISCLAIMER: I am a loyal Democrat and a longtime supporter of John Kerry, so I will freely admit that my comments further down are biased. :)


States To Watch


The following states have available Bush vs. Kerry data and either (a) are traditionally considered swing states or (b) have been significantly closer than one might expect. The number of electoral votes and the average polling numbers are given for each state.


Solid Blue States (Kerry leads by 6 points or more)

New Hampshire (4) Kerry 50, Bush 43 (2000: Bush 48, Gore 47)
    Kerry 50, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 51, Bush 43:
Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 49, Bush 42: American Research Group 8/3-5

Oregon (7) Kerry 51, Bush 44 (2000: Gore 47, Bush 47)
    Kerry 54, Bush 43: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 53, Bush 43: Zogby 9/2
    Bush 46, Kerry 45: Riley Research Associates 8/26-9/1
    Kerry 54, Bush 43: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21

Washington (11) Kerry 50, Bush 43 (2000: Gore 50, Bush 45)
    Kerry 47, Bush 45: Strategic Vision (R) 9/4-6
    Kerry 52, Bush 44: Gallup 9/3-6
    Kerry 53, Bush 44: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 49, Bush 42: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 48, Bush 43: Strategic Vision (R) 8/21-23
    Kerry 53, Bush 45:
Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 51, Bush 43: Survey USA 8/15-17
    Kerry 50, Bush 44: Moore Information (R) 8/14-15
    Kerry 49, Bush 42: Strategic Vision (R) 8/9-11



Solid Red States (Bush leads by 6 points or more)

Arizona (10) Bush 49, Kerry 43 (2000: Bush 51, Gore 45)
    Bush 54, Kerry 38: Market Solutions Group 9/3-5
    Bush 51, Kerry 45: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 45, Kerry 42: KAET-TV/Arizona State University 8/19-22
    Kerry 50, Bush 47: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21

North Carolina (15) Bush 51, Kerry 45 (2000: Bush 56, Gore 43)
    Bush 50, Kerry 46: Survey USA 9/6-8
    Bush 50, Kerry 47: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 53, Kerry 43: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 50, Bush 48: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 51, Kerry 45: Survey USA 8/13-15
    Bush 48, Kerry 45: Research 2000 8/9-11

West Virginia (5)** Bush 49, Kerry 41 (2000: Bush 52, Gore 46)
    Bush 49, Kerry 40: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 49, Kerry 42: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21


Leaning Blue States (Kerry leads by 3-5 points)

Iowa (7) Kerry 49, Bush 46 (2000: Gore 49, Bush 48)
    Kerry 51, Bush 47: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 47, Bush 47: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Kerry 51, Bush 45: Gallup 8/23-26
    Kerry 48, Bush 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: Moore Information (R) 8/22-23
    Kerry 52, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 48, Bush 47: Strategic Vision (R) 8/15-18

Maine (4) Kerry 49, Bush 44 (2000: Gore 49, Bush 44)
    Kerry 49, Bush 44: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 49, Bush 44: Survey USA 8/22-24
    Kerry 48, Bush 44: Rasmussen Reports 7/1-31

Michigan (17) Kerry 49, Bush 44 (2000: Gore 51, Bush 46)
    Kerry 52, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 48, Bush 44: Rasmussen Reports 8/27-9/3
    Kerry 51, Bush 43: Lake Snell Perry (D) 8/25-29
    Kerry 45, Bush 42: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Kerry 50, Bush 45:
Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 48, Bush 45: Survey USA 8/22-24
    Kerry 51, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 48, Bush 45: American Research Group 8/17-19
    Kerry 46, Bush 42: Strategic Vision (R) 8/14-17
    Kerry 49, Bush 42: EPIC/MRA 8/4-10
    Kerry 52, Bush 41: Survey USA 8/2-8/4


Minnesota (10) Kerry 48, Bush 45 (2000: Gore 48, Bush 46)
    Kerry 50, Bush 44: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 46, Bush 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/27-9/2
    Kerry 47, Bush 46: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Kerry 48, Bush 44: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 47, Bush 44: Hart Research (D) 8/23-25
    Kerry 50, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 47, Bush 44: Strategic Vision (R) 8/15-18

New Mexico (5) Kerry 47, Bush 44 (2000: Gore 48, Bush 48)
    Kerry 54, Bush 44: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 45, Kerry 42: Research and Polling Inc. 8/27-9/1
    Kerry 50, Bush 44: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 49, Bush 42: American Research Group 8/17-19
    Kerry 46, Bush 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/4


Leaning Red States
(Bush leads by 3-5 points)

Missouri (11) Bush 49, Kerry 45 (2000: Bush 50, Gore 47)
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: Survey USA 9/7-9
    Bush 55, Kerry 41: Gallup 9/3-6
    Kerry 50, Bush 48: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 48, Kerry 42: Rasmussen Reports 8/20-9/3
    Bush 49, Kerry 45: Moore Information (R) 8/24-26
    Bush 49, Kerry 44: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 46, Kerry 44: L.A. Times 8/21-24
    Kerry 50, Bush 49: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 48, Kerry 47: Survey USA 8/15-17

Tennessee (11)** Bush 51, Kerry 47 (2000: Bush 51, Gore 47)
    Bush 53, Kerry 44: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 50, Bush 48: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21

Virginia (13) Bush 50, Kerry 46 (2000: Bush 52, Gore 44)
    Bush 51, Kerry 46: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 50, Kerry 45: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 49, Kerry 45: Survey USA 8/20-22
    Bush 49, Kerry 48: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21


Weak Blue States (Kerry leads by 2 points or less, including tiebreakers)

Colorado (9) Kerry 47, Bush 46 (2000: Bush 51, Gore 42)
    Kerry 46, Bush 45: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 49, Bush 46: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 47, Kerry 47: Rasmussen Reports 8/19
    Bush 47, Kerry 47: Survey USA 8/14-16

Pennsylvania (21) Kerry 48, Bush 46 (2000: Gore 51, Bush 46)
    Kerry 49, Bush 47: Survey USA 9/7-9
    Bush 48, Kerry 47: Gallup 9/4-7
    Kerry 50, Bush 47: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 48, Kerry 43: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Bush 48, Kerry 47: Gallup 8/23-26
    Kerry 49, Bush 45:
Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 52, Bush 44: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 45, Kerry 44: Issues PA/Pew Poll 8/13-21
    Kerry 49, Bush 44: Strategic Vision (R) 8/16-19
    Kerry 48, Bush 43: Quinnipiac University 8/11-16
    Kerry 48, Bush 42: Keystone Poll 8/2-15


Weak Red States
(Bush leads by 2 points or less, including tiebreakers)

Arkansas (6) Bush 48, Kerry 46 (2000: Bush 51, Gore 46)
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 49, Kerry 43: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 48, Kerry 47: Survey USA 8/20-22
    Kerry 48, Bush 46: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21

Florida (27) Bush 47, Kerry 47 (2000: Bush 49, Gore 49)
    Kerry 49, Bush 49: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 48, Kerry 44: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald 8/22-25
    Kerry 46, Bush 46: Research 2000 8/23-25
    Bush 49, Kerry 47: Rasmussen Reports 8/24
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: Gallup 8/20-22
    Kerry 50, Bush 49: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 47, Bush 46: Strategic Vision (R) 8/16-19
    Kerry 47, Bush 41: Quinnipiac University 8/5-10
    Kerry 50, Bush 43: American Research Group 8/3-8/5
    Bush 48, Kerry 47: Strategic Vision (R) 8/2-4

Nevada (5) Bush 47, Kerry 46 (2000: Bush 50, Gore 46)
    Kerry 47, Bush 47: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 48, Bush 46: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 44, Kerry 42: Research 2000 8/14-17
    Bush 49, Kerry 46: Survey USA 8/14-16
    Bush 47, Kerry 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/15

Ohio (20) Bush 48, Kerry 46 (2000: Bush 50, Gore 46)
    Bush 50, Kerry 47: Survey USA 9/6-8
    Bush 52, Kerry 44: Gallup 9/4-7
    Bush 54, Kerry 43: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Bush 48, Kerry 42: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Kerry 46, Bush 46: Columbus Dispatch 8/18-27
    Kerry 48, Bush 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 46, Kerry 43: L.A. Times 8/21-24
    Bush 51, Kerry 46: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Bush 49, Kerry 45: Strategic Vision (R) 8/15-18
    Kerry 48, Bush 46: Ohio Poll (University of Cincinnati) 8/11-17
    Kerry 47, Bush 45: Gallup 8/13-15
    Kerry 48, Bush 45: American Research Group 8/9-11

Wisconsin (10) Bush 47, Kerry 46 (2000: Gore 48, Bush 48)
    Kerry 50, Bush 48: Zogby Interactive 8/30-9/3
    Kerry 50, Bush 44: Lake Snell Perry (D) 8/25-29
    Bush 48, Kerry 46: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Bush 48, Kerry 45: Gallup 8/23-26
    Bush 48, Kerry 45: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 45, Kerry 44: L.A. Times 8/21-24
    Bush 47, Kerry 45: Moore Information (R) 8/22-23
    Kerry 51, Bush 46: Zogby Interactive 8/16-21
    Kerry 46, Bush 46: Strategic Vision (R) 8/14-17


Updates & Commentary

9/11/04: More From Survey USA; Plus, The Remake of the Sequel to "New Jersey Might Be Close"


If SurveyUSA are on the mark with their latest round, it's relatively good news for Kerry as it indicates that Bush's "bounce" is tapering off. They have Kerry behind by 2 in Missouri (where Gallup had Bush way ahead) and up by 2 in Pennsylvania (which has narrowed to a dead heat). Of course, they also have Kerry getting creamed in Indiana, Kansas, and Kentucky, but that's really no surprise.

A second poll showing only a 4-point Kerry lead in New Jersey has surfaced, this a Star-Ledger/Rugters-Eagleton poll. Both the weighted average and my own instinct keep it in solid blue, however -- though it shows a closer race, this poll has Kerry leading 43-39 with 5 percent for Nader. This is probably due more to Kerry supporters wavering and declaring themselves undecided after the RNC attacks than to a real rise in support for Bush, and if you do the math, Bush would have to win 67% of the undecideds just to battle Kerry to a 47-47 tie.

Strategic Vision has Bush within 2 in Washington. I don't buy it, especially since even Gallup, which has not been terribly friendly to Kerry lately, has an 8-point Kerry lead there. In any case, the state stays solid blue in the weighted averages.

9/10/04: Who Knows


More state polls from Rasmussen, Zogby, Gallup, and Survey USA, along with a couple other outfits in Arizona and Oregon. As usual, they do not agree with each other. For example, Zogby Interactive has Bush up by 11 in Ohio, Survey USA has him up by 3, and Gallup has him up by 8 using their (rather questionable) "likely voter" screen and 1 among all registered voters. All of these pollsters have produced screwy numbers on occasion, so it's hard to say that any of them is more likely to be right than the others. I've also now gotten the last two rounds of Zogby Interactive polling for Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia; it's on the basis of these newly added Zogby numbers that Colorado is now weak blue (!!!). Florida, meanwhile, turns weak red despite a marginal Kerry lead according to Zogby as some older pro-Kerry polls cycle out of the calculation. Other updates of significance include Arizona and West Virginia moving to solid red (though the latter shift is due to Zogby Interactive alone), Tennessee moving back to the Bush column, and a very tight race in Pennsylvania. The shift of Florida and Tennessee gives Bush the lead in overall electoral votes (though not in solid or solid + leaning electoral votes) for the first time in quite a while.

Frankly, I'm about ready to just throw my hands up in the air at this whole thing, and not just because Bush has gained -- every day, it seems like there's some pollster in some state completely contradicting what another is saying, and I never have any idea who's right or why. I'll try to keep updating between now and the election, but I'd encourage you to check out some of the other sites below for more regular and probably more insightful analysis.

9/6/04: Yes, Bush Has Gained; No, The Sky Is Not Falling


To anyone who actually believes that Bush is about to walk away with this race (per the methodologically suspect Time and Newsweek polls), check out the first round of mid-RNC state polls. Research & Polling Inc. has Bush leading 45-42 in New Mexico, while Rasmussen has Kerry up 50-42 in California and a tie in Minnesota. Has Bush gained? Yes. Is he ahead by 11 points? No. If he were, he'd be above 45 percent in a swing state like New Mexico. He isn't. If he were, he'd be doing better than a tie in Minnesota, where he lost by only 2 points in 2000. He isn't. And if he were, he'd at least be in the game in California. He isn't.

9/4/04: Nader on Ballot in Michigan


An appeals court has put Ralph Nader on the ballot in Michigan. As a result, I've gone back to using the numbers that include him, and the state shifts to leaning blue. The good news about Michigan is that Bush still has yet to top 45 percent there despite all the recent fluctuations, while Kerry is consistently at 45 or higher.

Still no mid- or post-convention state polls to report.

9/1/04: Methodological Change, and Partisan-Polls-A-Plenty


Okay, hopefully this will be the last methodological tweaking before the election. First of all, I'm going to start weighting partisan polls as worth half a regular poll, just like I do with Zogby. This is largely because Strategic Vision -- which even conservative number-cruncher Gerry Dales seems to take with a grain of salt -- are starting to exercise a disproportionate influence on the weighted averages in the states where they've been polling.

Also, I'm now counting non-Nader numbers in states where Nader is officially off the ballot. I'll retroactively adjust the numbers for any older polls that fall within the current one-month range, and indicate as such on the Polls by State page.

Anyway, most of my updates are from either Strategic Vision, Republican-affiliated Moore Information, or the Democratic polling outfits of Lake Snell Perry (in Michigan and Wisconsin) and Hart Research (in Minnesota). Briefly, here's what seems to be going on as far as I can tell: Bush is making some real gains in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Strategic Vision has him ahead in all three, as have some other recent polls, though Lake Snell Perry has Kerry leading in Wisconsin); Kerry is holding on in Michigan (after a couple polls showing a Kerry lead of only a few points, he's back up to a 5-point margin or more in the three most recent); and Ohio is still a question mark (Strategic Vision has Bush up by 6, but before that the Columbus Dispatch had a tie, and before that Rasmussen had Kerry up by 2, and before that the L.A. Times had Bush up by 3, etc. etc.). There are also new numbers for Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri, but they have not moved appreciably.

Though the weighted averages are an improvement for Kerry with Michigan turning solid blue and Missouri turning weak red, that's more due to the methodological changes than anything in the numbers themselves (specifically, I'm now using non-Nader numbers in both). In addition, Florida might have shifted to Bush by now under the old system with Strategic Vision being counted the same as everyone else, though I didn't do an alternate calculation to find out.

Incidentally, it's worth acknowledging that my system takes longer for trends to be reflected than that of some of the other number-crunchers on the web (hence Pennsylvania is still leaning blue and Wisconsin only weak red at the moment). While this may be less of a "snapshot" as a result, I think it also takes greater account of the "softness" of each candidate's support. For example, Kerry was clearly ahead in Pennsylvania until late August, meaning that the new support for Bush, if real, comes from people who were either supporting Kerry or undecided until very recently and should probably not be considered "Bush supporters" in the same way as the 40-45% of Pennsylvanians who have been in his column all along. If their support for Bush turns out to be solid, we'll see it reflected in more polls and the weighted averages will catch up after a few more rounds.



Non-Battleground States

These are the one-month averages for states not considered battlegrounds. Available data for every state, including older polls, are archived here.

Alabama (9) Bush 55, Kerry 38 (2000: Bush 56, Gore 42)
   
Bush 54, Kerry 34: Capital Survey Research 8/30-31
    Bush 53, Kerry 42: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 58, Kerry 37: Survey USA 8/21-23

Alaska (3)
Bush 56, Kerry 33 (2000: Bush 59, Gore 28)
    Bush 56, Kerry 33: Dittman Research (R) concluded 6/30

California (55) Kerry 52, Bush 42 (2000: Gore 53, Bush 42)
    Kerry 52, Bush 42: Survey USA 9/6-8
    Kerry 51, Bush 42: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 49, Bush 46: Survey USA 8/16-18
    Kerry 54, Bush 38: Public Policy Institute of California 8/4-11
    Kerry 53, Bush 41: Strategic Vision (R) 8/9-11
Connecticut (7) Kerry 45, Bush 38 (2000: Gore 56, Bush 39)
    Kerry 45, Bush 38: Quinnipiac University 8/11-17

Delaware (3) Gore 55, Bush 42

District of Columbia (3) Gore 85, Bush 9
Georgia (15) Bush 54, Kerry 41 (2000: Bush 55, Gore 43)
    Bush 55, Kerry 38: Strategic Vision (R) 8/26-28
    Bush 54, Kerry 43: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 54, Kerry 40: Strategic Vision (R) 8/14-17
    Bush 52, Kerry 41: Strategic Vision (R) 7/30-8/2
    Bush 53, Kerry 42: Rasmussen Reports 7/1-31

Hawaii (4) Kerry 48, Bush 41 (2000: Gore 56, Bush 37)
    Kerry 48, Bush 41: SMS Research 7/29-8/3

Idaho (4) Bush 55, Kerry 25 (Bush 67, Gore 28)
    Bush 55, Kerry 25: Greg Smith & Associates 6/8-14

Illinois (21) Kerry 53, Bush 38 (2000: Gore 55, Bush 43)
    Kerry 52, Bush 38: Market Shares Corp. 8/13-16
    Kerry 54, Bush 39: Rasmussen Reports 7/1-31

Indiana (11) Bush 57, Kerry 37 (2000: Bush 57, Gore 41)
    Bush 60, Kerry 36: Survey USA 9/7-9
    Bush 52, Kerry 40: Bellwether Research & Consulting 8/15-18
Kansas (6) Bush 60, Kerry 35 (2000: Bush 58, Gore 37)
    Bush 60, Kerry 35: Survey USA 9/7-9
Kentucky (8) Bush 56, Kerry 39 (2000: Bush 57, Gore 41)
    Bush 56, Kerry 39: Survey USA 9/7-9
    Bush 56, Kerry 39: Survey USA 8/13-15
Louisiana (9) Bush 52, Kerry 36 (2000: Bush 53, Gore 45)
    Bush 52, Kerry 36: Marketing Research Institute 7/14-20

Maryland (10) Kerry 53, Bush 41 (2000: Gore 57, Bush 40)
    Kerry 53, Bush 42: Survey USA 8/23-25
    Kerry 53, Bush 40: Gonzales Research & Marketing 8/10-15

Massachusetts (12) Kerry 58, Bush 30 (2000: Gore 60, Bush 33)
    Kerry 56, Bush 30: Merrimack College 7/18-28
    Kerry 59, Bush 30: Suffolk University released 7/18
    Kerry 60, Bush 31: Rasmussen Reports 6/1-30

Mississippi (6) Bush 61, Kerry 30 (2000: Bush 57, Gore 41)
    Bush 61, Kerry 30: Mississippi State University 4/5-21

Montana (3) Bush 53, Kerry 33 (2000: Bush 58, Gore 33)
    Bush 53, Kerry 33: Mason-Dixon 5/24-26

Nebraska (5) Bush 62, Gore 33

New Jersey (15) Kerry 49, Bush 42 (2000: Gore 56, Bush 40)
    Kerry 43, Bush 39: Star-Ledger/Rutgers-Eagleton 9/3-7
    Kerry 50, Bush 46: Rasmussen Reports 8/27-9/3
    Kerry 51, Bush 43: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 49, Bush 39: Quinnipiac University 8/19-23
    Kerry 52, Bush 41: Research 2000 8/18-19
    Kerry 49, Bush 40: Strategic Vision (R) 8/6-9

New York (31) Kerry 55, Bush 36 (2000: Gore 60, Bush 35)
    Kerry 56, Bush 37: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Kerry 53, Bush 35: Quinnipiac University 8/3-9

North Dakota (3) Bush 61, Gore 33

Oklahoma (7) Bush 58, Kerry 37 (2000: Bush 60, Gore 38)
    Bush 59, Kerry 36: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 57, Kerry 38: Survey USA 8/16-18
    Bush 59, Kerry 34: Cole, Hargrave, & Snodgrass (R) 8/10-12
    Bush 56, Kerry 36: Basswood Research (R) 7/29
Rhode Island (4) Kerry 49, Bush 25 (2000: Gore 61, Bush 32)
    Kerry 49, Bush 25: Brown University 6/12-14

South Carolina (8) Bush 53, Kerry 42 (2000: Bush 57, Gore 41)
    Bush 52, Kerry 43: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 53, Kerry 42: Survey USA 8/16-18
    Bush 54, Kerry 42: Public Opinion Strategies (R) 8/16-17

South Dakota (3) Bush 54, Kerry 40 (2000: Bush 60, Gore 38)
    Bush 54, Kerry 40: Public Opinion Strategies (R) 8/24-26

Texas (34) Bush 57, Kerry 36 (2000: Bush 59, Gore 38)
    Bush 57, Kerry 33: Scripps Research Center 8/9-26
    Bush 57, Kerry 38: Rasmussen Reports 8/1-26
    Bush 58, Kerry 37: Survey USA 8/20-22

Utah (5) Bush 67, Kerry 22 (2000: Bush 67, Gore 28)
    Bush 67, Kerry 22: Dan Jones & Associates 5/10-13

Vermont (3) Kerry 51, Bush 36 (2000: Gore 51, Bush 41)
    Kerry 51, Bush 36: WCAX-TV (released 5/5)
Wyoming (3) Bush 68, Gore 28

How These Numbers Are Calculated

To make a long story short, I use state polling data when they're available, and when they aren't available, I assume that the states are remaining in a "holding pattern" from 2000. If polls are available, I calculate the average of those within a month of the most recent. I also don't use any polls from before 2004. Because the Zogby Interactive polls have proven wildly inconsistent and use questionable internet-based methodology, they are weighted as worth only half as much as other polls.

If, for example, the following four polls were available for a given state,

2/25/04: Kerry 60, Bush 40
2/21/04: Kerry 55, Bush 45
2/17/04: Kerry 55, Bush 45
2/13/04: Kerry 50, Bush 50

then these average for a result of Kerry 55, Bush 45.

If, on the other hand, only the following two were available:

2/17/04: Kerry 53, Bush 47
1/3/04: Bush 55, Kerry 45

then only the first poll counts and the state average is given as Kerry 53, Bush 47.

If a poll is conducted over a period of more than one day (as most are), then the ending date for the most recent poll is used as the "cutoff" in determining which earlier polls count. So if a poll is conducted over the period of, say, April 17-23, then no poll is included in the one-month average that ended earlier than March 24. Previously I had used the starting date of the most recent poll as the cutoff; however, when Rasmussen released their month-long polls for May, I realized that (a) this would introduce all kinds of statistical absurdities -- a poll taken April 1-3, for example, would hardly be relevant on May 31, and (b) that I ought to narrow down the averages a little to keep them more reflective of actual trends.

All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5s rounded up (i.e. 43.5 becomes 44, 44.5 becomes 45, etc.).


Links

Other Number-Crunchers
Real Clear Politics
The Hedgehog Report
Election Projection
Free Republic Poll Section
D.C. Political Report
Chuck Buckley's Election Site
Samboni's State-by-State Poll Projections
Dales' Electoral College Breakdown
Swing State Project
Ed Fitzgerald's Unfutz
Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas
Race 2004
My DD President 2004 Analysis
Electoral Vote
Polling Organizations & Resources
Zogby
American Research Group
Survey USA
Rasmussen Reports
Polling Report
Research 2000
Pew Research Center
Strategic Vision
Other Sites of Interest
John Kerry for President
The Daily Kos
Upper Left
The Carpetbagger Report
Counterspin




E-mail me.
1