China, India and south-east Asia stand out as the world's economic powerhouses, writes Graham Bowley. These economies, along with Chile, Uruguay, Turkey, Spain, and parts of Africa, are enjoying growth - as measured by the increase in gross national product per head - of 3 per cent or more each year. This makes them the third wealthiest group of countries - in terms of total gnp - after the more mature economies of the US and Europe, which are growing at a rate of 1-1.9 per cent each year. Their per capita income, however, remains among the lowest. People living in these high-growth countries, with a total population of 2.85 billion, earn $2,350 per head, compared with $12,220 per head in the richer countries. Many other countries are still falling behind. Sixty-three per cent of 209 economies, including large parts of Africa, the Middle East, South America and most of the former Soviet Union, has negative growth between 1985 and 1993.
The next 16 years will see tremendous economic change in China. By the year 2010 China will likely become the third-largest economic power in the world, according to an article in the latest issue of Outlook magazine. The article predicted that between 1995 and 2000, China's GDP -- the value of goods and services produced -- will grow at an average annual rate of 9 per cent to top 4,185.7 billion yuan ($504.3 billion). In the article, economists at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said that the GDP's annual growth rate during the 2001-2010 period will not be lower than 7.5 per cent. Developing at this rate, the country's GDP will reach 8,626.9 billion yuan ($1,039.38 billion) by 2010. The per capita GDP will reach 6,311 yuan ($760) after 2000 provided that the annual birth rate keeps at 0.7 per cent, the article said.
The chambers of commerce and business associations should reorient and modernize their services to help the industry meet the challenges of liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy, he said. Indian industry is undergoing massive restructuring and reorganization through acquisitions, amalgamations, mergers and demergers. It is also striving hard to induct new technology and to produce quality, cost and energy efficient and environment friendly products to become globally competitive.
China's economy will grow by 9 percent in 1995 since the government intends to achieve the dual goals of containing inflation and reducing unemployment, the People's Bank of China predicts. The currency issue in 1995 could be limited to around 142.4 billion yuan ($17 billion), or the same amount as in 1994.
China daily
March 24, 1995
By Ban Hongwei
The recent fisheries row between the European Union and Canada reiterates the trend that economic interests have become a top concern for a country in developing international relations during the post-Cold War era. The 20th century has seen two catastrophic world wars which devastated mankind. As people around the world celebrated the end of World War Two, the Soviet bloc, and the United States and its allies stood on the brink of the Cold war. "During the past 40 years, security concerns played a dominant role when the world was overshadowed by the Cold War," said Zhang Yebai, a senior research fellow in American studies under the China Association of Social Sciences (CASS). "With the breakup of the Soviet Union and its eastern European allies, security issues have been eclipsed by economic interests," Zhang said. "On the one hand, economic co-operation has been strengthened greatly. On the other hand, friction is booming. "While admitting to booming economic conflicts, we should have a clear idea that co-operation is the main trend," Zhang said. Worldwide economic integration and localization show that economic development has become a major global issue. Most countries pursue co-operation to boost their economies, said Zhang. Yet the recent dispute between Canada and Spain on fishing quotas epitomized the growing economic conflicts and friction of the world, Zhang said. The fisheries row focused on fishing rights in international waters off Newfoundland. On March 9, a Canadian garrison team captured a Spanish fishing trawler, the Eatia, off the coast of Newfoundland. Spain immediately responded. It stopped all formal visits to Canada and threatened to break off diplomatic relations. The European union, which enrolled Spain as a permanent member in 1986, sent an ultimatum to Canada about freeing the fishing boat. On March 15, Canada released the Spanish vessel, which greatly eased tensions. Yet first round negotiations in Brussels on the fishing row reportedly landed on the rocks. The talks are reportedly expected to be resumed at the end of this week. The behind-the-scenes reason for the dispute is not so complicated, the researcher commented. When Spain and Portugal became members of the European economic community nine years ago, the two countries' vessels were forbidden to fish in waters of other European countries. Then Spanish and Portuguese fishing boats turned to waters near Canada to seek their fortunes. This year, an agreement on the total volume of fish in waters near Canada -- sharply decreased compared with previous years -- was reached in the name of protecting the fish. Under the compromise, Canada owns a larger share of the fishing volume while European union countries only have a small proportion. Canadians insist they are protecting fishery resources. The Spaniards insist they are fishing in international waters. Given their own economic interests, neither would compromise easily, Zhang said. With economic development playing an increasingly important role in international relations, struggles on gaining natural resources are becoming severer, Zhang commented. Thanks to quick scientific development and fast-growing efficiency in the fishing industry, fishery resources are being swiftly exhausted. With the world markets swelling demand and decreasing fishery resources, competition is becoming more radical, Zhang added. The fisheries row between Canada and the EU is not the first one. Last year, in the same international waters, Canada seized a Panamanian fishing boat for similar reasons. Canada used to take a peaceful attitude towards world affairs. As members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Canada and Spain uses to boast good relations. But in the post-Cold War era, when their economic interests were infringed upon, Canadians have chosen an adventurous way to fight their opponents, Zhang continued. "The dispute seems to be unexpected, but on second thoughts, we find it's in line with the tendency to make economic interests a top priority in world affairs," said Jin Junhui, a senior research fellow with china institute of international studies. Only a month ago, France and the United States had a severe quarrel over espionage. Previously, sensitive cases, like surveillance with allied countries in Europe, would have been solved silently. The French-US quarrel, once again, showed that economic conflicts and friction between western powers as well as the world will become more serious, Jin said.