The question is dramatically complicated. Unlike most nations, Iraq is a secluded and suspicious country, dominated by secrecy and loyalty to Saddam Hussein. Those who oppose his views are quickly eliminated, and so the population quickly realized that supporting Saddam is the only means of survival. Political change is not an option in Iraq. This type of society naturally makes it quite difficult for spies and defectors to contribute adequate intelligence regarding the development of Iraq’s military technology. However, the intelligence that has been gathered is enough to make an educated analysis.
The first concern is Iraq’s ability to deliver any weapons at their disposal. Iraq has dedicated many years into the development of long-range missiles, and has had reasonable success. These missiles are all designed to be able to deliver a nuclear or chemical strike, which Saddam would require in order for his missiles to be an effective threat. The Iraqis continued to develop several long and intermediate range missiles throughout the 1980’s, with the aid of the Egyptian, Chinese, and Argentinean governments. The result: under the guise of creating a rocket for space development, Iraqi had developed the most advanced missile system in the Middle East. The final product was the Al-Aabed missile, capable of carrying a 750 kg warhead over 2000 miles. Although no Arab nation has developed technology that would enable them to strike at Western Europe or North America by means of a missile, Iraq is more than capable of delivering a chemical or nuclear strike on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Greece, Pakistan, Israel, or Russia(Refer to Figure 1 on Pg. 8)This is especially significant, as Israel was the victim of multiple SCUD missile strikes during the Gulf War, despite the fact that they were a non-combatant in the war. They were attacked simply because they were allies of the United States, and they were enemies of Saddam Hussein.
This raises concern among many Arab nations, who worry that any association with the United States may prompt Iraq to strike at nuclear power plants, oil refineries, or major cities. The results of such a strike would be catastrophic to international relations and to the civilian community. Although it is difficult to assess Iraq’s missile capability, it is clear that Iraq has one of the most advanced missile systems in the region, and that these missiles are capable of delivering any means that the President Hussein deems necessary.
Others question the chemical capability of Iraq. Throughout the Gulf War, allied air strikes focused on depleting Iraq’s chemical arsenal and deployment capability. Trade embargoes have also been enacted to ensure that Iraq is not being supplied with chemical agents from the international community that could potentially be developed into chemical weapons. Following the Gulf War, United Nations weapons inspectors patrolled Iraq for several years, seeking to uncover whatever nuclear and chemical capability Iraq still had in place. But were these measures effective?
Unfortunately not. United Nations weapons inspectors were limited in where they could search, allowing the Iraqi military to play ‘cat and mouse’ games with the inspectors. This seemed ridiculous, since the agreement reached with the Iraqi government at the end of the Gulf War allowed them complete access to any facilities that they wished to enter and search. The inspectors were hindered constantly before eventually being withdrawn from Iraq in 1998. In their closing reports, they disclosed their findings and suspicions that Iraq still had stockpiles of chemical and biological agents, such as anthrax and smallpox. International intelligence has also been informed of such stockpiles. In a report released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies(an institute based through the cooperation of a group of developed nations), it confessed the probability that Iraq has hundreds of tons of biological and chemical agents(Renfrew, 2002). Although it is difficult to confirm the extent of Iraq’s chemical stockpiling, it is obvious that Iraq retains this ability and is capable of employing it.
This is an immediate and significant threat- an outbreak of smallpox or anthrax could kill thousands or even millions if released. But a new element has recently come to the attention of the world- nuclear capability. The Iraqi government has pursued nuclear armaments for years, however a renewed interest is what worries the United States and Britain. Between 1975 and 1980, Iraq had made trade agreements with Italy, Russia and France which resulted in weapons-grade nuclear material being sent to Iraq in the form of MTR’s(Material Test Reactors). Other countries, such as Nigeria and Portugal, also contributed. France was a main supplier, sending twelve kilograms of enriched uranium to Iraq, with a further sixty-eight kilograms promised. The reactors sent to Iraq would produce ten kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium per year – a nuclear weapon requires about six kilograms of enriched plutonium. Indeed, Iraq was well on its way to possessing nuclear weapons, and the world seemed content to aid them in their development. These nations did not openly support Iraq’s nuclear weapons programme, however their selective ignorance proved beneficial in the Iraqi market. The economic benefits of increased trade, arms deals, and petroleum profits quickly overturned any inhibitions.
However, not all countries were blind to Iraq’s development. While their allies supplied Iraq with nuclear materials, Iraq’s enemies kept a close watch on the events unfolding. Israel and Iran, already within range of Iraq’s intermediate range missiles, watched closely and decided to abruptly end Iraq’s development. A joint Israeli-Iranian operation was the result. Special forces agents and fighter-bomber strikes effectively destroyed all of Iraq’s nuclear development facilities and materials and raised public awareness into Iraq’s nuclear development. Nearly all nuclear agreements were terminated with Iraq due to increased public pressure(Darwish & Alexander, 1991). Iraq subsequently abandoned its nuclear development programme for a few years afterwards. However, in the late 1980’s Iraq’s nuclear interest had been renewed. The Iraqi government has constructed several nuclear centrifuge sites and nuclear testing sites, created from elements contributed to Iraq by suppliers in several countries.(Refer to chart on Pg. 11). These centrifuges concentrate nuclear elements, such as uranium, to the point where they become weapons-grade material(Toronto Star, September 25 2002). If enriched uranium is introduced to these centrifuges, the period of time necessary for the enriching process becomes dramatically shortened. Iraq could quickly develop weapons-grade material and renew its status as a nuclear threat.
Is Iraq an international threat? It has shown that it is through its constant technological advancement. It has chemical stockpiles, long-range missiles, and is showing promise as a nuclear capability. Iraq is a threat, and must be treated as one.
