William Shingleton, "Flashpoint: NATO Threat Splits Montenegro,"
Jane's Pointer December 1998
Ever since the election in October 1997 of the reformist Milo Djukanovic as the head of the Yugoslav republic of Montenegro, analysts have believed that the Montenegrins would move out of the Serbian orbit. With the threat of NATO air strikes hanging over the his people, Djukanovic may have started a process which could lead to the final dissolution of Yugoslavia.
It was already known that Djukanovic had no love for Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic. This had been manifested in statements such as "Montenegro will not die so that Slobodan Milosevic can feel better." However, it seemed that Milosevic and Djukanovic had reached a sort of understanding whereby Serbia would allow Montenegro an unofficial autonomy if Montenegro stayed in Yugoslavia.
Things changed when, with up to 10,000 Kosovo refugees in Montenegro and with NATO threatening air strikes, Djukanovic went before the Montenegrin parliament and condemned Serbian policy in Kosovo and warned that Montenegro would be a target of NATO strikes. With Milosevic already refusing to seat Djukanovic's appointees in the Yugoslav parliament, it seemed that Montenegro was headed for the abyss. Indeed, after Djukanovic's speech there were indications that the Serbians tried to take direct control of the Montenegrin police. Moreover, Milosevic has closed down media outlets in Serbia which broadcast Djukanovic's speech.
However, these developments do not necessarily mean that Montenegro is about to split. Within Montenegrin circles, there is a major philosophical dispute as to whether or not there is a separate Montenegrin identity. More importantly, Montenegro is highly dependent on Serbia for economic aid and food and fuel supplies. Thus, unless there is a guarantee of such supplies from another source, it is unlikely that Montenegro will be more than a new thorn in Milosevic's side.