The Soapbox
Rockville, MD
¨ 28 February 2004 ¨ wshingleton@hotmail.com
In A Betting Mood? Odds for 2004
The 2004 primaries upon us. The Soapbox is periodically updating the conventional wisdom on the Democrats' hunt for 2004. Odds expressed below are for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for any actual cash wager (unless you are an idiot). The first number is the chance of capturing the Democratic nomination, the second of the Presidency (assuming they win the nomination). Arrows are given to candidates whose profiles have been updated since the last rankings.
A big week for John Kerry, who continues to pick up major endorsements (Flordia Senator and former presidential candidate Bob Graham is the most recent). Kerry stopped the Edwards momentum dead in its tracks by sweeping the 24 February primaries, winning Idaho 54-22, Utah 55-30, and Hawaii 50-14 over Edwards in elections that did not draw major candidates' campaigns. Kerry is also helped by the continued presence of Kucinich in the race, which will likely bleed off enough Edwards votes to secure Ohio. Kerry is clearly gearing towards the general election and is helped tremendously by the relentlessly positive campaign that Edwards is pursuing (at least with regards to his principal rival; I wouldn't exactly call the Edwards stump speech a love-in with Bush-Cheney 2004).
Your fearless prediction: A Kerry sweep and the end of the primaries as Edwards drops out.
A new feature for the Soapbox - a breakdown of the current state of play in the electoral college for the general election Here.
90% (45%): John Kerry (Senator, Massachusetts, http://www.johnkerry.com/) - Kerry is poised for major wins on Super Tuesday. Polls show him with a substantial lead in Ohio, though even his staff doesn't think the trend will last until Tuesday. Kerry has begun to roll out policy positions, issuing a major foreign policy address this week. Kerry has to finish off Edwards by mid-March to begin raising and storing money for the general election; campaign finance reports indicate that Kerry was about break-even at the end of January, and all indications now are that he's spending money as fast as he takes it in.¯
10% (50%) John Edwards (Senator, North Carolina, http://www.johnedwards2004.com/) - The end of the road is coming for Edwards, who not only lost all three primaries on 24 February, but lost them all by more than 25 points. He even finished an embarrassing 12 points behind Kucinich in Hawaii. Unfortunately for Edwards, this is likely the shape of things to come on Super Tuesday, as the results in Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah indicate Edwards level of support in contests where there was no campaigning - i.e., what he will look like in New England, Maryland, and most of the other 2 March primaries where he has spent little or no time. He's trying to turn the campaign into a debate on trade and the economy, which is the right move since these are issues on which he is strong and on which the general election will likely turn. Edwards is still playing defense and waiting for Kerry to slip up - he needs to go on offense by tackling more than just trade, especially in a post 9-11 world.«
0% (1%) Dennis Kucinich (Representative, Ohio, http://www.kucinich.us/) - Salvaged a second-place showing in Hawaii, where he was the only candidate to campaign. As a result, Kucinich now has as many delegates (8) as Joseph Lieberman. Polling indicates that he will get squashed in his home state of Ohio, though he may affect the race there by drawing votes away from Edwards. Kucinich is drawing the protest vote that was previously divided among Carol Moseley-Braun and Joseph Lieberman and is picking up some of Dean's support from the hard left antiwar types.«
0%: (1%) Al Sharpton (Minister, New York, www.al2004.org) - Still getting the applause lines at Democratic debates by calling George Bush a liar and saying he'd ask the President where Osama is if he were on the 9-11 commission. But Sharpton is increasingly in debt and has been spending his money foolishly, for example by paying more per hotel room than any other campaign. Don't look for Sharpton to leave the race before New York, or even after it. After all, 'sense of shame' and 'Al Sharpton' have rarely if ever been seen in the same sentence.
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