Ethiopia Says War Has Marginal Effect on Economy
PANA: April 9,1999
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (PANA, 04/09/99) -
A senior Ethiopian official said in Addis Ababa Friday that the impact of the ongoing border conflict with Eritrea had been minimal on the country's overall economic performance so far.
"The war's impact on our economy had been very limited," Neway Gebre-ab, chief economic advisor to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.
Speaking at a news conference organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association in Addis Ababa, he said the country had averaged an annual GDP growth of 6 percent during the last six years (1993-98).
"We hope to maintain the same level of growth this current Ethiopian fiscal year (1998-99 ending in June)," he said.
The border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea surfaced in early May last year. It had so far led to one fierce fighting in 1998 and several others during the last two months.
The conflict has yet to be resolved, although both parties have accepted an OAU framework agreement to end the war.
Eritrea announced its acceptance of the agreement in late February after war broke out and its forces were forcibly evicted from the disputed Badme area in north-western Ethiopia after nine months occupation.
Neway said, however, the direct impact of the border conflict with Eritrea had been "horrendous" in two regional states -- Tigray in the north and Afar in the north-east -- bordering the conflict areas.
"At least 300,000 internally displaced people in the two regions have been affected," he added.
He stated that the government had been able so far to spread defense expenditures over two fiscal years, entailing reduction in capital expenditures. The border conflict surfaced near the end of the 1997-98 fiscal year that was followed by the 1998-99 fiscal budget ending in June.
Asked to comment on reports on estimates that both Ethiopia and Eritrea have been spending an average of one million US dollars a day on war efforts, Neway said: "This is on a high side for us."
He pointed out that in any war situation, road transport is usually the first to be affected.
"Fortunately, this did not happen in our case. There had been no rise in road transport tariffs rate, even in the two regional states close to the conflict area," he said.
Neway, who has the rank of minister, maintained that despite "limited" impact of the border conflict on the country's economy, "we did not deviate from Ethiopia's tranditional stringent fiscal policy dating back to the era of the late Emperor Haile Selassie."
He stated that inflation has been kept at bay -- below 5 percent for the sixth consecutive year. But the Ethiopian currency, the birr, had depreciated against the dollar from 7.087 in May 1998, when the border conflict with Eritrea surfaced, to 7.910 at present.
He attributed this to 30 percent fall in the world market of the price of coffee, the principal foreign exchange earner.
"This has been offset by the fall of petroleum price on the world market and bumper crop at home during the 1998-99 harvest season," he said.
"The depreciation of the birr against the dollar has nothing to do with the border conflict," he stated.
Ethiopia's annual export earnings, which wase in the range of 250 million dollars to 300 million dollars in the early 1990s, has doubled to 600 million dollars in 1997-98.
"It appears the 1998-99 figures will not be very encouraging due to the fall in coffee price," he said. He expressed hope that the price of coffee on the world market would rebound in a year or two.
Neway said some donor countries had tried to use aid as a means "to change" Ethiopia's "attitude" regarding the stand it had taken on the border conflict with Eritrea.
Consequently, some donor countries he did not name, "promised and withheld bilateral assistance", he said, describing the this as "a very unfortunate signal".
By Ghion Hagos, PANA Staff Correspondent