The heavy fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the last three days is a sad commentary on the mad obstinancy of the Eritrean dictator Issayas Afwerki.

No matter what the outcome of the current fighting, the fact remains that there is only one way to find a peaceful resolution. That is through the internationally-backed OAU peace plan. Virtually every respected international organization has endorsed this plan. Virtually all the aid donors which help finance the Eritrean economy have told the Eritrean government to accept the peace plan "without delay."

Why? Because it is a "fair and balanced" peace plan as the UN Security Council described it.

It is a peace plan that is drawn up according to the principles of international law. There is not going to be another peace plan. There are not going to be amendments to this peace plan.

No matter how many Eritreans and Ethiopians end up wounded or killed on the battlefield, the final resolution of this conflict is already clear. We know what the outcome will be.

Why then all this fighting?

The answer lies with the famous boasts of the Eritrean dictator when confronted with calls from the international community to withdraw his army from the areas it invaded:

"Withdrawal is unthinkable." "Morally it is unacceptable, and physically it is never going to happen." "We are not going to withdraw even if the sun doesn't rise."

It is in defense of these stupid boasts that young Eritreans are deployed all along the Eritrea-Ethiopia frontier. So far it seems they are holding on. But this conflict is not going to be decided in three days. Back in June, 1998 under an article titled "Tough Times Ahead" I wrote that "we are in for a long drawn-out series of battles that could go for six months or longer."

Indeed that may be an understatement. Eritrea is not going to accept the OAU peace plan. This leaves Ethiopia with no option but to defend itself using any means necessary. In particular this means using air power.

The air moratorium of June 1998 was, in my view, a blunder by Ethiopia. Two days of airstrikes had isolated Eritrea by air and by sea. Airlines stopped flying to Asmara. Ships were refusing to visit Massawa because of prohibitive insurance rates. The Eritrean economy was at a standstill. Most foreigners were evacuated and their embassies were all closed or reduced to skeleton staff. The Eritrean dictator was getting desperate. "We can survive for a short while" he told the London Times, and threatened to launch terrorist-style attacks inside Ethiopia in order to disrupt and isolate Ethiopia (Ethiopia was essentially unaffected at the time).

In any case the air moratorium cannot be taken seriously. No country can ever be required to give up its best weapons while enemy troops remain entrenched in its territory. That was just a temporary gift to Eritrea. Now that the air moratorium is dead, the way forward is clear. Ethiopia should re-establish the position it voluntarily gave up in June 1998. Then Ethiopia can sit back and wait… It may take more than a year, it may take strategic aerial bombardments every now and then, but eventually the Eritreans will be forced to attack. Once their supply lines are interrupted, once Massawa becomes off-limits to shipping, once Asmara airport is permanently deserted, then the Eritreans will be forced to come out of their trenches and launch an attack. That is when they will be decisively defeated.

In the current clashes, it seems that Ethiopia's objectives are limited. Ethiopia cannot sustain a prolonged offensive right now. There are simply not enough resources available. To guarantee success Ethiopia needs to mobilize a far greater proportion of the country. When attacking fortified positions, overwhelming force is required. This Ethiopia does not have.

According to the AFP Ethiopia's army now numbers 320,000 while Eritrea's is 270,000. At least 50,000 Ethiopian troops will be deployed in the rest of the country. This means that numerically, Ethiopia does not have any advantage over the Eritrean army. This is despite the fact that the Ethiopian army must attack fortified Eritrean positions without the benefit of surprise. A common rule of thumb for such operations is that a numerical superiority on the order of 10 to 1 is needed. Ethiopia has no such advantage right now.

In the meantime though, the bravery of the Ethiopian forces in the face of withering fire from the entrenched Eritreans is commendable. When we read about their heroic sacrifices, when we see how they are carrying out their missions without the benefit of surprise, without the benefit of cover, this is when we support them even more.

-Dagmawi