Commentary:
Eritrea’s bad hangover

This week the Ethiopian Air Force completed a series of impressive air strikes against several targets across Eritrea. The satisfaction of these missions derives from the following:

• All targets appeared to have received at least some damage
• Civilian causalties were minimal
• All aircraft returned safely
• A relatively large number of sorties were flown across a wide area in a short period of time

The Ethiopian Air Force should be congratulated for planning and executing these missions successfully. Only one year ago it was neglected, underfunded, and understaffed. Now they have built up a formidable force that has taken control of Eritrea’s airspace. From Sawa to Masssawa, the Eritrean skies belong to the Ethiopian Air Force.

It should also be clear that great care is being taken to minimize civilian casualties. It would have been a simple matter for the Ethiopian pilots to drop their payload on the center of Massawa and massacre hundreds of Eritrean civilians. This is what the Eritrean air force did to Ethiopian civilians at Mekele and Adigrat. We are glad to see that the Ethiopian air force commanders are not retaliating for the disgusting Eritrean massacres.

Given enough time, the air war may be sufficient to get the Eritrean troops to withdraw from the occupied Ethiopian territories. Maybe not. In any case, it is well worth it because the value of the air-strikes is not just in the physical damage inflicted. The concrete demonstration of Ethiopia’s air superiority, and Eritrea’s inability to control its own air space, means that insurance rates for air and sea transport to Eritrea will skyrocket. This is war, and Ethiopia should not hesitate to use its air power to impose this punishment on the Eritrean economy. If the Eritreans don’t like it, they should get out of Zalanbessa and Alitiena. It is very simple.

A Bad Hangover

Like a bad hangover, the Eritrean nation is waking up to the hard reality of what it did the night before. Invading Ethiopia seemed like a good idea to the Eritrean dictator, and the Eritrean elites were dancing in the streets of Asmara.

No dancing now. Eritrea’s staggeringly stupid invasion of Ethiopia is yielding the predictable results. Close to one percent of the Eritrean population has been killed or wounded. The Eritrean army has been driven out of Badime, leaving behind the corpses of thousands of Eritrean conscripts who paid the ultimate price for their dictator’s silly boasts. Many more will die, as it is only a matter of time before the Eritrean army is cleared out of the remaining occupied areas.

In their defeats, the Eritreans seem to take consolation in boasting about inflicting casualties on Ethiopia. But when the dust settles, the Ethiopian sacrifice will be rewarded by the gratitude of the hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian civilians returning to their homes and resuming their peaceful lives. The occupied territories will be liberated and the Eritrean military machine will be destroyed.

And what good will the death of thousands of Eritrean conscripts have accomplished? Nothing. To die for nothing - that is every soldiers nightmare.

The surviving Eritrean conscripts will return to an economy in shambles and with poor prospects of recovery. Never again will Eritrea enjoy the considerable tax and trade revenue it derived from its association with Ethiopia.

“Eritrea will become the financial service center of the region!”… “Eritrea will become the regional trade and distribution center!”…. Such were the delusional slogans of a nation unrivalled in self-puffery. Now it is best to forget about those silly boasts. In the future Eritrea will be a distribution center for unemployed Eritreans looking for work in neighboring countries.

As for the spineless Eritrean intellectuals, we are going to enjoy reading their comic attempts to make something positive out of this military adventure. Instead of condemning the invasion they enthusiastically cheered the initial Eritrean advances… giggling about occupying Zalanbessa and making a spectacle about the Ethiopian soldiers who died defending that town. That was the pattern they set from the beginning, and they have only deteriorated since. If they want to go off the cliff with their dictator, then all we can say is “may God have mercy on their souls.”