Commentary:
Common Sense and an Incentive to Choose Peace

As the Ethiopia-Eritrea war continues into its second year, the solution to the war remains as obvious as it was from the beginning. Eritrea should never have sent troops into Badime on May 12, 1998. Once it made that grave mistake, it should have availed itself of the opportunity to withdraw peacefully in the context of the US-Rwanda peace plan. Instead of withdrawing however, the Eritrean leader ordered further attacks on Ethiopia, culminating in the occupation of Zalanbessa on June 3rd 1998.

This is what has lead to the current stalemate. If Eritrea had not occupied Zalanbessa and the other territories subsequent to invading Badime, the war would be over now.

If Eritrea claims it has “withdrawn” from Badime what prevents it from withdrawing from Zalanbessa and Alitiena? Ethiopia has even offered Eritrea a cease-fire in advance of a withdrawal as long as Eritrea indicates it will withdraw its troops and allow the pre-existing civilian administration to return.

Clearly, Eritrea is using the OAU peace plan as a cover for its belligerence. There is no logical basis for accepting a “withdrawal” from Badime but not Zalanbessa and Alitiena. True, it was Ethiopia’s blunder for not specifically incorporating the requisite language about ALL occupied territories into the OAU peace plan. This has left a loophole for the Eritreans to exploit, despite the fact that Ethiopia accepted the plan with the explicit written proviso that Eritrean withdrawal was to be effected from ALL occupied territories.

COMMON SENSE
In terms of common sense however, this issue is what the Americans would call a “no-brainer.” The principle of withdrawal and re-instatement of the status quo was the issue in both the US-Rwanda peace plan and the OAU peace plan. Obviously, Eritrea continues to reject this cardinal principle of international law. If the principle applies to Badime, it applies also to Zalanbessa, regardless of the face-saving language within which it was embedded.

Eritrea’s rejectionist stance is clear when we note that Eritrea actually hasn’t done anything at all to comply with the OAU peace plan. For example, as we know, Eritrea didn’t withdraw from Badime; it was forcibly ejected. Suppose Ethiopia had instead ejected Eritrea from Zalanbessa and not Badime. Would Eritrea then have agreed to withdraw its troops from Badime in accordance with the OAU peace plan? Would the Eritrean elites be demanding that their government withdraw from Badime? Of course not. The Eritrean diplomatic maneuvers are purely tactical and not motivated by a desire for peace.

A peaceful resolution of the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict requires Eritreans to face the facts. Their government initiated a brutal invasion of Ethiopia. Once the Eritreans face up to this point, the next step becomes obvious: the invading troops should withdraw, the displaced civilians should return, and the pre-existing civilian administration should be re-established.

SAVING FACE?
If the Eritrean government and its supporters refuse to face the facts, then this war will proceed to its logical conclusion. As noted earlier, this war would already have ended in a complete Ethiopian military victory, had not Eritrea created more work for the Ethiopian army by occupying additional territories (e.g. Zalanbessa and Alitiena). These areas were occupied while intense diplomatic efforts were underway to resolve the crisis caused by Eritrea's occupation of Badime. Continued occupation of these territories is now critical for the Eritreans to “save face.” They are the only remaining “fruits” of Eritrea’s disastrous military adventure

In the coming months the Eritreans may win a battle here and there, but they will lose the war. “Saving face and losing all” – that was the title of an early article about the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, and it may well be used again to describe this chapter of Eritrean history.

INCENTIVES and ACCOUNTABILITY
The Eritrean leadership and its supporters are responsible for the deaths of thousands of Eritreans and Ethiopians and they should be held accountable. The benefit of saving thousands lives was not a sufficient incentive for the Eritrean dictator to pull his troops out of Badime.

To hold the Eritrean dictator accountable, the issue of Badime should no longer be part of any diplomatic discussion. Eritrea initiated the war there and refused to withdraw. This resulted in Eritrea being ejected by force, and caused the deaths of thousands of Eritreans and Ethiopians.

As an incentive, the Eritreans should be informed that if they don’t withdraw from the remaining occupied areas, those sectors will also become non-negotiable.

This may provide sufficient incentive for the Eritreans to get out of their trenches in occupied Ethiopian territory and go back to their homes.

CONCLUSION
Eritrea should choose peace and go home.