Further thoughts on Causation


				Further Thoughts on Causation
				
				Professor Anonymous  Aug. 4, 1997
					
					
	It occurs to me that causation or cause-effect is such a difficult	
	
subject because there simply never is a simple A-causes-B relationship.	

Events are compound to begin with. All space-time events are relative

to some inertial event frame and thus involve a multiplicity of defining

characteristics to begin with. The minimal event of a single photon alone

in free space is an illusion. At very minimum I would expect any event to

involve some interaction with some other event. I believe even a minimalist

defininition of event will to some degree be self-referential and also

involve the concept of causality even if only indirectly.
						
	  It seems to me that, for the above reasons, any attempt to use	
	
pure 'philosophy' alone ( i.e. words and mind alone ) will fail to achieve

any useful solution to the 'causation problem' if indeed there is a

problem to begin with. Furthermore, any attempt to provide a compact

and precise definition will also fail. The more one attempts to rigidify

the concept, the more likely it is to blur. There may yet perhaps be

a way of formalizing the concept by using mathematics and new terminology,

but I suspect that in doing so one will exclude other aspects and

meanings, and issues within broader domains.
												
		
	There is, however, much that is still of interest if we keep our	
	
limitations in mind and our desire for stone-cold-clarity in check.	
												
			
I will be discussing cause and effect from mainly a physical point of	

view but will not exclude metaphysical factors outright.
							
				 ok, here goes -			
				
							
			 Fundamental Principles of Change				
	
	-1) The Principle of Implication ( Logical Syllogism )
	 0) The Principle of Change		
	 1) The Principle of Multiplicity		
	 2) The Principle of Branching
	 3) The Principle of Instantiation
	 4) The Principle of Indeterminism
	 5) The Principle of Diminishing Returns
	 6) The Principle of Conservation of Mass-Energy Exchange
	 7) The Principle of Exclusion
	 8) The Principle of Irreversibility
	 9) The Principle of Symmetry							
	 10) The Principle of Necessity and Sufficiency					
	 11) The Observer Principle
	 12) The Recursion Principle
	 13) The Principle of the Butterfly Effect
	
	
    -1) The Principle of Implication ( Logical Syllogism )
	
		   This principle and all higher order negative principles
		
	 belong in the domain of philosophy proper and will not be expanded
	
	 in this paper.
			
	
	0) The Principle of Change -							
	
		All things change eventually. Every event comes forth and
		
	goes in time. This is the essence of event - change. No change -	
	
	no event. In this sense an event is not really a physical thing.
	
	It is more the defining change within some set of physical things
	
	or the change within the properties or state of some system.
	
								
	1) The Principle of Multiplicity -						
	
		There is never one single cause for some effect or event.
												
	
	 Corallary to this is that there is no one prime cause to any event;
	
	 Every event has multiple causes and each cause is in itself the
	
	 effect of some multiple of causes. Cause and effect are relative
	
	 terms according to some contextual time stream.
											
		 Downstream from the event in question is also an expanding
		
	 multiplicity of effects for which it is a contributing cause.

	 Thus we have about any event we choose to consider, a sort of		
	
	 conceptual hour-glass shape or branching tree of descendant
	
	 actualities and emergent possiblities.
									
									
	2) The Principle of Branching -								
	
		This is really simply put as the Principle of Connectivity.
												
	
	 Every event is connected causally with certain prior events via
	
	 a progressively branching probable cause tree. It is also connected
	
	 to certain following events by a progressively branching tree
	
	 composed of possible effects.
											
		 The whole web of connection flows in time from cause to effect.
									
	This converging and branching tree ultimately is bounded by the	
	
	relatavistic light-cone which defines the extreme extent of possiblity
	
	of connection. Anything outside the light-cone of some event can
	
	be neither a contributing cause nor a deriviative effect.
	
		The sharpness of the cone is a function of how simply we
		
	define the extent of the event in question. Even with sub-atomic	
	
	particles, there is a certain fuzziness to this web of connection.
	
						
	3) The Principle of Instantiation -				
	
		Every event-web is an instance or subset of all possible
		
	threads of connectivity. A causal thread is a subset of said event-web
	
	and represents a thread of connections from one event to another
	
	further up or down in the two-fold hierarchy. The point is that
	
	any actualized path is but a small subset of all possible paths,
	
	and any actualized event web is but a small subset of all possible
	
	ways an event could have happened. This principle could be called
	
	the reality principle because it says an event which really happened
	
	might have happened otherwise; yet still it happened the way it did.
	
	
	4) The Principle of Indeterminism -
	
		For any event we can't even surmise what all the possible
		
	connections might be. Since the tree of possibility branches outward
	
	in the past and future, the more remote the connection, the
	
	greater the uncertainty as to what were the contributing or
	
	derivative factors. Also causes contribute to events in varying
	
	degree and kind. Hence there is an added uncertainty which is
	
	irreducible. An event-web may be punctuated by deterministic threads
	
	which preclude and proclude other threads ( see Principle of
	
	Exclusion ). It may also be punctuated by quantum uncertanties which
	
	defy reasoning by deterministic syllogism.
	
	
	 5) The Principle of Diminishing Returns
	
		 In general the degree of contribution to or reception by any
		
	 event in the event web is inverseley proportional to its connective
	
	 distance from the signature event - signature event being the one
	
	 at the heart of the 'hour-glass'. NOTE: every event in the
	
	 hour-glass also has its own hour-glass web of connectivity!
	
			
	 6) The Principle of Conservation of Mass-Energy Exchange
	
		 Given an hour-glass-event arbitrarily demarcated above and
		
	 below the center of change, the sum total mass-energy exchanges	
	
	  within the total light-cone of said event will be conserved
	
	  i.e. the exchanges above will balance the mass-energy exchanges
	
	  below.  This is precisely true for deterministic branching and
	
	  and in the long haul true for indeterministic branching also.
	
		  This principle along with the principle of diminishing
		
	  returns forms the basis for causal accounting of all change.	
	
	  Events thus ebb and flow according to their substance and energy.
	
	  Substantial connectivity threads breed object persistence,
	
	  while energetic threads increase the branching and rate of change.
	
	  The total structure, however, remains in balance. It might be
	
	  worthwhile to speculate as to the integrated extent of event-cones.
	
	  There will be quantum limits and chaos uncertanties which form	
	
	  natural limits to any such cones. Are all created equal within
	
	  this context? I suspect not!
	
	
	 7) The Principle of Exclusion
	
		 Some events exclude the interaction of others that might
		
	 have influence. Deterministic event threads are a prime example.	
	
	 Consider the problem of who shot JR. One might define the bullet
	
	 leaving the gun as the signature event of a possible event-web.
	
	 Up until the the trigger was pulled, there might be an endless
	
	 web of possible and probable causes from the emotional content
	
	 of the shooter to the actions of bystanders, and even the weather.
	
	 Once the trigger initiates a leveraged exchange of movements and
	
	 energies within the gun, however, a certain inevitability ( but
	
	 not absolute certainty ) narrows down the number of connecting
	
	 threads. We are most comfortable when discussing cause and effect
	
	 if we have such a narrow set of determined branchings. Actually
	
	 however the reality is never simple, and there is allways a
	
	 multiplicity of causal connectivity which defies total analysis.
	
		 When scientists talk of closed systems or controlled experiments,
		
	 they are hoping for situations thus reduced to deterministic scope	
	
	 or narrowing of the event-cones to the exclusion of all otherwise
	
	 possible causes and effects. Note that I said 'hope for'. In fact
	
	 one might say that the Principle of Exclusion is the closest one
	
	 ever gets to describing what is meant by a closed system.
		
	
	 8) The Principle of Irreversibility
	
		 There is a flow called the arrow of time. The flow within
		
	 a pair of signature event-cones is convergent from past to present
	
	 and divergent from present to future. In general one cannot
	
	 reverse the flow or reverse the set of connecting threads. There
	
	 are exceptions to this but even they reside within the context of
	
	 a larger set of event cones where parity is preserved. This might
	
	 also be called the Principle of Conservation of Parity. One
	
	 can turn a glove inside out but the handed-ness of the glove will
	
	 change. Also any real gloves undergoing such a transformation
	
	 will have indeterministic uncertainty losses which eventually
	
	 degrade or expand its event cones.
	
		 In case one hasn't noticed, recursion is an integral part of	
		
	 this discussion. My essay called "Fractal Man" highlights this	
	
	 as principle itself integral to all event realities.
			
	
	 9) The Principle of Symmetry							
	
		 "as above so below" should be our motto here. There is
		
	 obvious symmetry between the converging and divergent halves of
	
	 an event web, but there is also a symmetry within causal threads
	
	 too. A significant thread carries either lots of mass or lots of
	
	 energy type influence and will reflect itself through the apex of
	
	 the two event-cones revealing itself downstream in time as a
	
	 major influence.  Interplay between the massive and energetic
	
	 threads determine the overall character of events. Less influential
	
	 threads color and alter the pattern.
	
	
	 10) The Principle of Necessity and Sufficiency -				
	
		 Within the context of not being able to precisely define any
		
	 given event-web, it may still be possible to talk of necessary	
	
	 causes and sufficient causes. There may be a set of causes which
	
	 if not active in the case, fail to produce the event. There
	
	 may yet be other influences which factor in and color the event
	
	 but which do not change the essential character of what picques
	
	 our interest. There may yet be again a set of causal influences
	
	 sufficient to produce or reproduce the essential event in question
	
	 but only in its broad details, allowing for a whole set of
	
	 indiscriminate causal threads which even if deterministicaly
	
	 operative still offer no real import to the discovery in question.
	
	
	 11) The Observer Principle -
	
		 Any observer of real event-cones is part of his own event-cone.
		
	 To make any real observation, there must be an overlap between cones.
	
	 That is, the observer becomes interwined with the event cone of
	
	 observation and affects it as well as is affected by it. More
	
	 simply put - The observer and event are but subsets of some larger
	
	 event web.
		
		
	
	 12) The Recursion Principle -							
	
		 The words 'cause','event', and 'effect' can only be defined
		
	 recursively. The operative lever is the word 'effect', upon which	
	
	 'cause' and 'effect' are contextually defined. The preceding
	
	 principles demand that the relationships are recursive.
	
		  There is a real-er more subtle form of recursion operative
		
	  also. This is due to the fact that causal threads which have a
	
	  narrow spatial scope can induce feedback. Effects can be causal
	
	  agents for an event which repeats in time. There can also be
	
	  synergistic effects between close causal threads inducing avalanche
	
	  effects.
	
	
			
	 13) The Principle of the Butterfly Effect						
												
			
		 Chaos Theory teaches us that events can be spawned which		
		
	 have no set of prime deterministic causal threads. Convergence	
	
	 into simple order can manifest almost serindipitously. Conversely
	
	 a tiny simple low-mass, low-energy thread might be the last straw
	
	 which topples an empire or instigates the birth of a whole new
	
	 immensely powerful event-web.
	
	
	 Well, such is life.

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