THE CHAPTER 11. LET'S HAVE A LOOK In the FUTURE

So, that us waits ahead. Let's begin from scales largest. First of all from scale of the universe. Speak, that now universe are increasing. Really, if to  mean  a red displacement, the most long-distance objects, which we can observe, depart from us with a velocity close to speed of light. However light from them reaches us approximately for 15 billions of years. I that is, we see them in a status, which they had 15 billions of years back. In what they a status are now, we do not know. Probably, cvasars already become normal galaxies as well as ours and do not depart any more from us, and on the contrary, come nearer to us.
       Depending on an average denseness of substance of the universe can be (if speak  a little simplified) two models of the universe are. If the denseness is more than some magnitude, the universe, having reached the maximum size, will begin to decrease. The red displacement will be replaced violet and through some tens billions years the universe will be compressed in a point. Large explosion again will happen and will begin to arise the new universe.
         If the average denseness is less than some magnitude, the universe will be increasing eternally.  Gradually will burn out all (or nearly so all) hydrogen in stars. The stars will go out. The galaxies will be disorganized. The universe will die and will dissipate in infinite space. Precisely average denseness of substance in the universe the scientists yet do not know. But so, or otherwise, but eternal there is nothing. It is possible quite confidently to speak, that through three, four, and can five tens billions of years of our universe any more will not be.
       Closer limit to our existence is determined by our Sun. Here there are calculations more exact. Now, have been existing 7 billions of years, our Sun is approximately in a middle of the life. Approximately after 7 billions years a hydrogen will be burned and our Sun will complete existence, to have been exploded up as a new star and will to convert to the white dwarf - iron star. That, as it is shown on  Photo 7. From the Earth it will be observed so. In some a moment the Sun will begin to be increased in sizes, taking more and more part of the sky. The luminosity of it  will be increased  much more. On the Earth becomes completely intolerably heat. Then, being more increased, the Sun will begin to redden. Then the huge red full-sphere, more darkening, will reach the Earth. Then the sky becomes red, and in due course and absolutely will darken. On it stars and one bright star, that remained from the Sun, - again will appear . As a mass of the Sun to decrease, orbits of planets, including Earth will be changed. On Earth will come  a deep cold. All.
        But it in the event that the Earth will live before that time. And the scientists doubt of it. For a history of the Earth the processes of differentiation envelop 64 % of planetary substance. The further development of these processes will reduce  all of Earth internal activity because of an expenditure of substance magma. Terrestrial crust and nucleus will come to contact on depth of 2100 km. The nucleus will take 54,5 % of a planet, the external shell will make 45,5 %, denseness 6,8 g.sm³ , The square of the Earth will be reduced on 72 mill.km ² , and its radius on 470 km. Such parameters the Earth will have through 1 billion of years. The termination of internal activity of the Earth will reduce in gradual vanishing of a hydroorb, which volume constantly replenished in an outcome of processes of a volcanic activity. With vanishing in deep space of a hydroorb the existence of a biosphere will be stopped also. The atmosphere of a gradually becomes carbonic, as the amount of oxygen will not replenish. Also pressure essentially will fall. Average temperature on a surface of the Earth  will fall   on hundred degrees also. The high-power strains, which will arise on the boundary of a nucleus and terrestrial crust, will  rupture of a planet, and it will cease of its existing.
        But it will be through a billion of years. Whether to exist the men so long?. Very doubtfully. First of all, we understand, that the civilization is inconceivable without consumption of natural resources of a planet. Now this consumption has reached enormous sizes. As far as these resources will suffice us? The different scientists give different evaluations. But majority consider, that the main sources of not renewed resources (petroleum, gas, iron ore etc.) will be reached in some decades if we will be have present consumption. Probably, they make an error. Probably, the mankind will produce certain mechanisms of strictly economies, it is more secondary processing of scraps etc. Nevertheless, after two hundred, three hundred, at last  five hundred years and of resources will not suffice. Moreover the civilization should consume more and more resources and energy, differently it will begin to be degenerated and, in the final account, will perish. At least within the last two centuries of technological era, the consumption of energy by mankind has increased on 3 - 5 % annually, that means doubling energy each 15 - 20 years. Thus, all terrestrial stocks of fuel, not excluding and nuclear, will be taken out during nearest hundred years. The realization of controlled thermonuclear reactions could supply further development of our power at least for the nearest centuries, while it will not reach a geophysical limit, that is comparable to a stream of a solar energy, continuously dropped on the Earth, and threatening disastrously to change all terrestrial climate.
       There are some dreamers and visionaries, which forecasted to us a perspective of resettlement in space. But I think , dear reader, hardly you wish a perspective of life in metal boxes with an artificial climate, artificial meal and generally in artificial life. As the construction of space cities for all mankind finally will finish our poor planet.
                      So that if to evaluate time of development of a human civilization, plus  a degradation time of it up to a level, when it already will lose the right is proud to be named as a civilization, it is more than two - three thousands of years to give very difficultly. But it is very optimistic variant.
                      Is much probablese pessimistic. Is valid, as we mentioned earlier, the moral human  practically was not changed  by a all history. On the other hand, the scientific and technical progress does  more accessible means of a mass destruction by terrorist, and  by a criminal groupings. Fifty years back nuclear technologies were accessible only to two superstates - USSR and USA. Only they have created the nuclear weapon.   Now these states officially five, not officially seven - Russia, USA, Great Britain, France, China, Pakistan and India. Are ready to enter in a nuclear club, if be have desire, Southern Africa, Brasil, Japan, Germany, Ukraine and further everywhere. We are on a threshold of a possibility of purchase (if is availability of appropriate money) nuclear weapon with any community, including criminal one.
                      But the progress in creation of means of an destruction does not is limited by nuclear. Now we are on a threshold of discovery of even more high-power power sources. In different laboratories of the world the research works are conducted, about which the broad public practically nothing knows. In particularly, in a direction so-called microlepton technologies. The new technologies will allow to create certain technical devices of an incredibly huge destructive force and sizes, say, about a pack of cigarettes, and technologically so that to make such device  can anyone master from a garage. And necessarily such person will, which by some cause will commit suicide, that all globe will shuddered. 
      It would not be desirable to trust in it, but also to refuse that idea, that the conflict between a moral imperfection of the person and by scientific and technological power can to lead to loss of a civilization, and most likely will, it is simply impossible. Also there will be not later, than in nearest some hundreds years.
                      What will be farther? On optimistic variant, mankind deprived of resources, will be slowly degrade, to lose earlier mastered knowledges and technologies, and gradually, during several millenniums to return in paleolit.  On pessimistic variant, the sequence of social, national and other conflicts with use of more and more high-power means of destruction lead to that situation, when the existing climate from the given stable equilibrium will pass in to another stable equilibrium, in which the life generally is impossible.
         For example, mass use of the weapon such as nuclear will lead to large smoke and dust content in atmosphere. At the expense of it the reflective ability of atmosphere will be increased and less light the Earth will reach. There will come so-called nuclear winter. Temperature on a planet will fall so, that the snow coverage will reach at least subtropics. When a dust and smoke will be drop, the snow coverage will increase reflective ability of a surface of the Earth (so-called albedo), therefore temperature already will not be increased any more. The zone of a snow coverage, and then and icing, will be distributed to all planet, the oceans will freeze. Average temperature will fall up to a minus fifty degrees on equator and up to hundred on poles. All alive will perish. The history will stop the run.
        There is a problem, whether can life and civilization to revive again. No! Certainly, no. The conditions of arhaey and billions of years are necessary for origin of life. Neither that, nor other on the Earth any more will not be. As to a civilization, the resources on the Earth will be so exhausted that in the future a man will not expect  for any more except for as on a stone cuts.
        Sometimes it is possible to hear that it is possible on the Earth earlier  a high developed civilization was existed . No, did not exist. The Earth already so is dug over by archaeologists, that the remnants of engineering activity of a civilization, such as dams, bridges, channels, tunnels, air stations and cities, certainly, would be detected. And main, the civilization in any way must to become technological,  differently it and not a civilization. And therefore not have been remaining  of a coal,  petroleum,  gas, uranium, or anything for us.
        For someone these conclusions will be shown too gloomy, for whom that can and not so. Someone will not agree with me. Well, think, decide themselves. But I more than two thousands of years  of existence of our civilization can not to give in any way. That is why I do a conclusion, that the life time of a civilization can to be no more than ten thousands of years.

THE CHAPTER 12. SO, WHETHER WE  ALONE IN UNIVERSE?

So, the dear reader, we is briefly, somehow, have looked through ALL UNIVERSE and all processes from Large explosion to finish of the universe and from a nucleus of hydrogen up to a civilization. Now we have possibility to count probabilities of those events, which have supplied a possibility of origin of our civilization, so also civilizations generally. And consequently, and to evaluate, whether one we in the universe.
         So, the galaxies and stars develop naturally. There is not sense here to use of a laws of probability. The first event, which has made to possible origin of a civilization, this collision of the white dwarf and neutron star. And first of all, the white dwarf should hit in a field of an attraction of a pair of stars: the Sun and neutron star.
         The distance from the Sun, on which the white dwarf should pass by, should be approximately equal to a distance from the Sun up to orbit of an average mass of planets, that is approximately of 200 millions kilometers. Thus, the white dwarf,  should hit casually on square equal   p ×R², Where R = 200 ×10 ⁶Km, that is equal 1,2 ×10 ¹⁷ Km ² .
       From what distances the white dwarf should hit in this purpose. For this purpose we shall evaluate an average distance between stars on a rim of a galaxy. As we mentioned in the chapter by fourth, in a neighbourhood of the Sun, radius 50 light years(l.y), approximately 1000 stars, with an average distance between them about 5 light years. We take into account, that approximately 70 % from them such as the Sun. From them no more than 30 % conjugate and, at least, no more than 10 % from conjugate include a neutron star were on an approaching distance from a main star. Then in volume with a radius in 50 light years will be no more than 20 stars, at which the planetary system can be derivated.
      Let's define an average distance between such stars. For this purpose we shall define volume of an orb with a radius in 50 light years. It is equal 4/3 × p × 50 ³, or approximately 500 000 l.y³ . Average volume on each approaching star will be 500 000/20 = 25000 l.y³. We shall define a radius of an orb of such volume. It will be equal to the cubic root of this figure divided on four, or approximately and in round figures twenty light years.
       Let's assume, that the initial star - white dwarf is between approaching stars, that is on a distance from each from them in 20 l.y. A direction of its movement accidentally. Let's calculate probability that from a distance in 20 l.y the white dwarf will hit in area of an approaching star. It needs square of an orb with a radius in 20 l.y to divide on square about an approaching star, which we already have defined - 1,2 × 10 ¹⁷ km² . The formula of definition of square of an orb we know. Having calculated on this formula and having transferred in kilometers we shall receive, that the square of an orb will be equal 5×10 ²⁸ km² . Then the probability of such event will make approximately 10 ¹⁷ / 10 ²⁹ , Or   10 ^-12 .
     Now we shall calculate, how many time is necessary, that the white dwarf has reached an approaching star. The white dwarf should fly with a velocity no more by third space, differently it only will change a trajectory and will abandon an approaching star. For a conjugate star it will be a velocity about 20 km / with. 20 l.y is approximately 2 × 10 ¹⁴ km. Then the time will make 10 ¹³.s. In one year approximately of 30 millions seconds. Then it will  three hundred thousands of years.
      As we mentioned in our Galaxy number of stars approximately equally 10 ¹⁰ . From them the main mass, is not less 80 % is in a central part of a Galaxy, where for some reasons life is impossible. That is we can consider 2 Ч 10 ⁹ Stars. Then it is necessary probability 10 ^-12, obtained by us, to multiply on this number of stars.
         From this we shall receive, that during approximately three hundred thousands of years the event, circumscribed by us, can take place in our Galaxy with probability 2 ×10 ^-3 . We shall accept, that the emerging of planetary systems is possible then, when the amount of the white dwarfs will reach number, about equal to number of stars such as the Sun. And it can take place, as we considered above, not earlier than five billions of years up to an event, considered by us.
        That there is a number of such events we can evaluate having divided five billions of years on three hundred thousands. This number will be equal approximately 10 ⁴ .  To multiply probability, obtained by us, 2 ×10 ^-3 On 10 ⁴, It will be equal 20. Let's take into account also, that the white dwarf, having hitted in an orb of an operation of a pair of a star and its satellite of a neutron star, can and not to form a planetary system, or to form such planetary system, in which planet, similar Earth be can not.
       For example, the white dwarf can confront with a main star, or orbits of stars will be rebuilt in such a manner that collision will not arise etc. Therefore it is possible quite definitely to assert, that the planetary systems, similar by ours can for all history of a Galaxy be estimated by units.
       Further, let's assume, the planetary system was derivated. But it does not signify, that life there will be derivated. At first, the planet claiming that on it will be derivated life, should be on the certain distance from the Sun. If it will be too close, a temperature on it will be lifted more than hundred degrees, or contrary - temperature will be less than zero, biiological (but other is impossible, as we have shown) life will not arise. Let's assume, that the probability that a planet will appear on the necessary distance is equal 10 ^-1 .
       Secondly, the rotation axis of a planet should not much be inclined, differently a half-year there will be a day, and the surface of a planet will be heated, and then of half-year night and the surface will cool down much. In this case the life not will arise too. Besides this the rotation rate of a planet should be for the same reasons enough large. Let's assume, that this probability can also be appreciated in 10 ^-1. So, rather optimistic  evaluation of  probabilities favorable for origin of life by a planet conditions is equal 10 ^-2.
       We spoke, that extremely important for evolution of life is the presence of oceans. And relation of square of a land to square of oceans should be about one to three. From this , as we assume, moon should be derivated by a passing of Venus  (or can be and other similar to it of a space body) at a short distance from Earth. Let's assume, that it was Venus. Its orbit should be such, that was close enough to orbit of the Earth, or intersected it. Let's assume, that this probability approximately 10 ^-2 . Further, declination its orbit should be about same as at the Earth. As is known, declinations of orbits of planets in relation to a plane of rotation of the Sun is different also reaches several degrees. And Venus when  intercept of the Earth orbit could pass above (or under) it at height in some millions kilometers. And to make such catastrophe, it should pass near the Earth in some thousands of kilometers (in view of radiuses of planets approximately in twenty thousands of kilometers). Then the probability it is equal approximately 10 ^-3 . Thus, the general probability is equal 10 ^-5 .
         Besides the part of crust, broken by catastrophe, must to by such that to ensure a relation of a land to oceans, which we mentioned above. In this connection, probability of creation of favorable conditions for life on the Earth  on the order will be lower, that is 10 ^-6. This is main events, which allow to arise life on the Earth. If these conditions is available, further origin of life and its development up to a civilization becomes natural and practically inevitable. Besides we shall take into account  a number of casual circumstances, each of which the probability of origin of life reduces slightly, but in the sum magnitude in 10 ^-2 will introduce definitely.
       Thus, the probability of origin of life from account on one galaxy is approximately equal 10 ^-8. That is about hundred millions galaxies it is necessary, that the civilization was derivated. And how many them generally. We shall be stipulated, that galaxies further 5 billions of light years can not interest us. Because these billions mean, that these galaxies are younger than ours on the same billions. That is they are not ready for origin in them of life. We mentioned in the fourth chapter, that the total number of galaxies in the visible universe is totalled of the order of two hundred millions, or 2 × 10 ⁸. If multiply this number on probability of origin of a civilization - 10 ^-8 , that will be received number close to unit.
      That is it is possible to make a conclusion, that all grandiosety of the universe exists only that the unique civilization, our civilization has appeared. Especially, in orb, that, nearest to us, in five billions of light years, the number of galaxies approximately in a thirty of time is less, than total number of galaxies in the universe.
       Now we shall consider the problem on the other hand. Let's assume, that we a little were mistaken, and other civilizations are. But they arose on stretch of the last five billions of years. Our civilization, as we have determined, can exist ten thousands of years. If to divide five billions on ten thousands and we shall receive number in 5 × 10 ⁵ . If even so much existed of civilizations during life of the universe, but, simultaneously with us would not exist by any. So that, if we also were mistaken a million times, the conclusion about our loneliness would not be changed.
    And that this implies, we shall discuss on the following page.

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