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DOWWed 835 Que Prem

Westmount City ... great place to live & good readingA Window on Westmount Ville Marie

A Window on Leaders Wednesday Night







A Wednesday Night Forecast

      westweb |------David T. Nicholson |-------Diana T. Nicholson






WEDNESDAY, March 4th, #835

On Wednesday evening March 4, 1998, between fifteen and twenty guests gathered around the Nicholson dining room table for a serious discussion of the path to be taken by Québec in the near and mid term in the aftermath of Daniel Johnson's resignation as leader of the Québec Liberal Party[Version en Français]; what attributes are desirable in a candidate seeking to succeed Daniel Johnson? What pitfalls lie in the path of the aspiring leader of any political party in Québec? What are the particular challenges to be met by a new leader of the Québec Liberal party? Would Jean Charest be willing to face these challenges? Would Jean Charest match the profile of the optimum Premier or Leader of the Opposition? If not Charest, who in politics would better fit the profile, who in the business world? Would a businessman succeed in a social-democratic society like Québec?

The Problem with Québec politics:

As is somewhat generally true of politics in Canada but particularly in Québec, there is an absence of a variety of basic political philosophies identifiable with a particular party. Both the Parti Québécois and the Québec Liberal Party embrace a wide gamut of members and philosophies ranging from conservative to social democratic, soft sovereignists, hard sovereignists, federalists, union leaders and industrialists. What distinguishes the Parti Québécois from the Liberal Party is its ability to rally its members (and a large part of the electorate) around a single issue namely sovereignty and against a common enemy, namely the federal government.

As these and similar questions were debated, some consensus emerged, particularly with respect to the essential qualities in the next leader of the QLP.

How well does Jean Charest meet the profile?

On the positive side:

  • He speaks well and has the ability to rally people behind him.
  • He has demonstrated his ability to convince people in the courtroom.
  • He is young, francophone, thinks on his feet, has demonstrated his ability to win and to rally people around him in the last referendum.
  • All things being equal, he could very well defeat Lucien Bouchard, if not in this election, then in the referendum that follows it. However, not all things are equal.
  • His stance on the Supreme Court reference would put him in good stead with francophones. He can safely ignore anglophone and allophone opinion without risking their support.
  • He brings no (provincial political) baggage with him and would not be identified with one or another faction of the QLP
  • His relationship with Jean Chrétien is far from warm
  • He has the ability in both languages to raise the passion and anger of his listeners.

On the negative side:

  • He would render himself very vulnerable if he were to renege on very conservative statements made previously on such issues as medicare and pensions.
  • His stand on gun control is not popular in Québec
  • The QLP consisting of such diverse factions presents a challenge to their leader that even Jean Charest might not be able to represent them adequately in the face of the opposition.
  • He would have no firm power base within the Party
  • The PQ are attacking him as the ROC candidate
  • He has another agenda (leading the PCs to power federally); this would represent a total reversal of his career - would he remain committed?
  • Messiahs do not have great track records.

Who are other candidates, political and business?

  • Pierre Pettigrew - too closely identified with Claude Ryan
  • Lucienne Robillard -- not viable
  • William Johnson - non starter
  • Raymond Garneau, Pierre Gobeil, Laurent Beaudoin ( or another business leader), -highly unlikely in the first two cases and perceived as "vieux jeu"- most business leaders perceived as politically too right wing.

Among the guests, more were inclined to endorse Jean Charest, but the opinions were far from unanimous, particularly when at least one individual who knows Mr. Charest maintained that he would not succumb to the pressures to run.

Alliance Québec Elections

The discussion turned to the anouncement that William Johnson will be a candidate for the presidency of  Alliance Québec[Version en français]. It was generally felt that, if successful, the imposition of his extreme, partitionist views would represent a huge step backwards for Alliance which has been reaching out to federalists of all hues and has attempted to create genuinely helpful policies with respect to issues such as health care and education. Furthermore, it appears that Mr. Johnson and his supporters are attempting to turn Alliance into a power base for the Equality Party in the next election. Alliance, which receives federal funding, is not - and should not be - representative of any single political party. It is a lobby group for the interests of anglophones in Québec.

Those who wish to become involved and are not currently members of Alliance have until one month prior to the Meeting on the 26th of April (25 March) to become members and therefore eligible to vote for the slate of delegates to the Annual General Meeting.

Perhaps a Johnson win would mean the Government would have to cut off its $900,000.00 funding because of it affilation to the Equiks.


To have a say on who wins this race you must be a member.
Just fill in ths form at [Version en français]
or e-mail AQINFO@AQ.QC.CA any questions. You do not have to be a Canadian or from Quebec to be a member just a resident.

Please Phone 875-2771


Please see Constance a Hope!

Finally, the discussion left the political arena with a question: What event is likely to bring on a world-wide depression?

The unanimous reply (excluding abstentions) from software manufacturers, professors, computer teckies, stock market analysts, professors, economists and the other guests:

MILLENNIUM CPU BUG

Too many companies are ignoring the situation, even in North America and the developed world. Among those companies are some very large ones.

The problem, suggested one guest, is more acute overseas. Now that it has been identified in the financial markets, North American corporations will throw money at it until it is solved.

Another guest spoke of ramifications which have not yet been considered, citing a recent take-over which fell apart when the extent and cost of the corrective work to solve the Millennium bug in the target company was ascertained.

Others' experience indicated that for some major North American companies, it is already too late, pointing out that the correction of the situation involves endless, tedious tasks of checking and re-checking every line of code. In many cases there just isn't enough time if the task isn't already underway.

One consultant stated that there is so much risk of litigation that their company is refusing to take on de-bugging assignments. To underline the risk, the example was given of a control tower operation which has been thoroughly realigned for year 2000. One line of code is missed. As a result, there is an air disaster, many lives lost. The consultant would be sued and wiped out. A lawyer objected, suggesting that the answer is to establish a limited liability company for the purpose of carrying out such assignments. However another aspect of the reluctance to take on such assignments is that they would require that many talented young experts immerse themselves in old technology, losing the necessary edge for career development. This is not good long-term strategy for them or their employer. You must see our full page on Y2K for real help.

On this cheerful note, the discussion was brought to a close.

Notes by Herb Bercovitz and Michael Judson

Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson


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We Talked about






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    Required Reading

  • Chris Goodfellow on Banks

    New

    Wednesday #831 Feb 4th



    by Dr. Desmond Morton


    by Stephen Jarislowsky
    Jarislowsky on the Stock market
    Jarislowsky on Westmount a must read


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    Please call Diana Nicholson Please phone (514) 934-0023
    e-mail your interestPlease e-mail us your interest.