Subject:   A CALL FOR UNITY


This is a bit  long, so read it when you have a few minutes.


Subject: The War


This was written by an academic advisor at the USAF Academy. He is
not only a brilliant man, but also an individual who combined that
brilliance with common sense to lead others. His words are ones that
haven't been heard much yet but I believe will come to be true before we
have the chance to recover from this initial tragedy. Recently, I was asked
to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have
joined the cast of thousands who have written an "open letter to
Americans." Please share it with others if you feel so moved to do so.





14 September, 2001


Tony, Dear Friends, and Fellow Americans,

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last
week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling
from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it.
This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,
politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the
media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not
committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as
such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a
ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong
way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect
their capabilities. The many
parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor
are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against
a complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our
new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over,
just like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in
the years following WW II. These men hate the United States with all of
their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral
commitment.


Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier
and statesman, stated, "the moral is to the physical as three is to one."
Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said
moral conviction was five times more important in battle than physical
strength. Our enemies are willing -- better said anxious -- to give their
lives for their cause. How committed are we America? And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught
to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and
surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was
not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate,
with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ole' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must
not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the
world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in
this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to
prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not
equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our
soldiers are much better than the enemy is, and we have some excellent
"counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage
rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may
come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if
their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to
die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time
consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply
put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on
multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive
until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. For the most part, our
military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by
men and women who grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled
in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be linear
warfare; there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high
technology weapons.  Our vast technological edge will certainly be helpful,
but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming
battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked
aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the
ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart
bombs.


We must also be patient with our military leaders. Unlike Americans
who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time
on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of
attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses
its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time
of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that
America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only look as far back
as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military
history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning
a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on
by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than
three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Same Bin Laden
is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the concept. We can
expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but also less
audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations
to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities. These
attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the average
American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our resolve.


But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of
the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy
has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will
turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be
right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von
Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in
history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed
of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of the
government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the field
of battle, in that order. Every
American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not
just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center
or Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we
are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through
a few more hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can
do that, we will eventually prevail.  Everyone I've talked to in the past
few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another,
"I just wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep
faith in America, and continue to support your President and military, and
the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally
certain. God Bless America


Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy