Getting to Know the Numbers |
1. Profits Behind the Numbers
2. Guide to Company Reports
3. Choosing A Stock
Back to Stock Analysis |
Choosing A Stock |
Note: This is geared toward fundamental analysis. Something analogous
could be done for technical analysis.
This is the procedure we follow when we are considering the purchase
or sale of a stock. While holding, we just monitor the news and investigate
earnings reports and surprises, and make sure that the reason for buying
is still valid.
Since no one has the time to research the entire universe of stocks,
it makes sense to use screening
to narrow the field down to a few dozen that you will pay closer attention
to. If you can research one or two stocks a week, you should be able to
put together a good knowledge base (including a few worth buying) in a
couple months.
To maximize the value you get out of your research time, it's good to
decide what you're looking for before you begin.What questions are you
trying to answer, and what information will you need in order to answer
those questions? Basically this means thinking about what your analysis
will involve before you start your research.
What's a particular stock worth? Everyone has a different answer. Here's
InvestorGuide's answer: A stock is worth the value of all its future dividends,
discounted by the interest rate. This is why earnings are so important
- the assumption is that earnings eventuallly become dividends. All the
research and analysis is designed to help calculate this value.
Although everyone does their research differently, here are a few things
you might want to look into.
Annual reports:
-
Income Statement
-
Earnings growth (earnings acceleration is even better). Does the company
have a record of exceeding analysts' expectations? Earnings are considered
by many investors to be the most important single number, the assumption
being that earnings pave the way for future dividends.
-
Revenue growth.
-
Stable or increasing margins.
-
Stable or increasing R&D spending as a percentage of sales. (specifically
for technology companies)
-
Tax abnormalities. For example, taxes below 25% usually mean the company
is using tax loss carry-forwards against income, which are only a temporary
earnings booster.
-
Number of common shares outstanding. Increases in the number of shares
negatively impact earnings per share (issuance of new shares isn't necessarily
bad; the important consideration is why they're doing it).
-
Cash Flow Statement
-
Cash flow. Ideally, cash flow would be positive, large, and increasing.
In any case, understand why the company's cash flow is what it is.
-
Balance Sheet
-
Debt. The debt to equity ratio (long term debt divided by stockholder's
equity) is the measure typically used. Lower is better, and zero is ideal.
-
Cash (relative to annual sales). Cash is always a good thing, but it's
especially important to companies that sometimes want or need to temporarily
go cash flow negative. Remember that when new shares are issued, proceeds
from the sale also appear here.
-
Return on equity. This is a measure of net income relative to stockholder's
equity. Higher is better.
-
Receivables and inventory. They should not be rising much faster than sales
are.
-
Current ratio. This is the ratio of assets (cash, receivables and inventory)
to liabilities. The higher the better.
-
Management's Discussion and Analysis
-
This is the section where the company helps you interpret what the numbers
mean; for example, why revenues or margins changed. Pay special attention
to the section in which they describe the outlook for the future; they
typically discuss some of the potential threats and uncertainties they
expect to encounter.
Other important considerations:
-
What are the products and/or services? Do you see a continuing need for
them? Are the products and/or services things that customers buy once or
repeatedly? Do you see competitive offerings that are as good or better?
-
Can the company protect their position? If not, big margins can quickly
become small margins. Are there no close substitutes to the products and
services they offer? Are there barriers to entry? Do they have copyrights,
patents, innovative processes, economies of scale, de facto standards,
or anything else that will help them defend their niche? Is the product
highly differentiated? How do they compare with their competition?
-
Are they generating significant earnings and revenues from products introduced
within the last few years?
-
What's the outlook for the future, both for the company and for their industry?
Do they have lots of new products/services coming? Do they have favorable
long-term prospects? Where will they be in ten years? Consider what the
analysts and others expect for the future, but also make your own determination.
If possible, work out your own revenue and earnings projections. Another
technique is to assume that the analysts' expectations are completely factored
into the current price; if you think the outlook is better than they do,
the stock could be a bargain.
-
Current dividends. This is more important for portfolios focusing on income
rather than capital appreciation, or for investors fearful of a broad market
downturn. Growth stock investors are willing to wait patiently for earnings
to turn into dividends.
-
How's the management? What's the corporate culture? Are they able to attract
and keep highly skilled personnel?
-
Insider ownership (more is better, especially by the CEO), and recent insider
activity.
-
Do they have a global presence? U.S. companies that operate around the
world have outperformed the S&P 500 handily over the last 5 years,
and should continue to do so.
-
How is their marketing?
-
Do they have a consistent operating history? Uncertainty is something to
be avoided, unless you are adequately compensated for it. Change, difficult
situations, product shifts, and big mergers all bring with them uncertainty.
If a company doesn't have experience with these things but you see them
coming, be careful.
-
Do they have a history of success? Past performance is no guarantee of
future results, to paraphrase the mutual fund mantra; but there's certainly
a positive correlation (on Wall Street and in life).
-
Is the stock expensive or cheap? Compare the P/E ratio (or book value,
or price to sales ratio, or price to earnings growth, or whatever measures
you use), relative to the company's historical average and relative to
the industry. See if discrepancies are justified. Also, do their design,
manufacturing and distribution costs increase or decrease each year?
This list is not comprehensive, but should give you a good start. MarketGuide
has some more thoughts on stock selection.) Note that the list focuses
on the company's long term prospects. If you think you spot a stock which
is temporarily undervalued, one which you expect to hold for just 6 or
12 months, you would probably want to ask a different set of questions.
If you are seriously considering a purchase, you should also research
that company's competitors. Follow the same basic research strategy, only
in less detail (unless you have the time to do an equally thorough job).
You may decide to buy a competitor instead.
Once you've gathered the facts, you should then perform the .
^ back
to top ^