| Tips and Tricks of the Pros |
By Investing legends Philip Fisher, Warren Buffett, and Peter Lynch were
remarkable in that they were great investors and great teachers.
Today, I'd like to introduce you to a lesser-known but highly successful
money manager, Bob Olstein, whose writings are also a treasure trove for
students of investing. Bob Olstein, manager of the Olstein Financial Alert Fund, has run
circles around the S&P 500 over the past five years, earning 23%
annually for his investors versus 7.5% for the index. Olstein's winning
approach to investing is articulated on his
website through many excellent articles, one of which ("We Are
Concerned About Our Performance") reduces his value investing philosophy
to 30 short principles. Today, I want to share with you 10 of my
favorite Olstein principles, along with a few thoughts of my own on each
one. 1. Buying companies with excess cash flow (more cash coming in than
going out) is the best defensive maneuver against financial risk. A contrast of Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO)
and Lucent (NYSE: LU)
provides a perfect example of this principle. Cisco's consistent cash
generation, even through the recent downturn, has prevented its
shareholders from suffering the degree of losses faced by Lucent holders.
All along, the difference in risk between the two companies should have
been readily apparent to anyone paying attention -- Lucent has been
bleeding cash from operations since 1999, whereas Cisco has generated
operating cash flow profits for every fiscal year going back to 1995.
While neither company has been a good investment over the past several
years, a comparison of stock performance over just the past 52 weeks finds
that Lucent shareholders have lost an additional 50% of their investment,
whereas Cisco holders are sitting at about breakeven.
2. Volatility does not represent risk but creates
opportunity. This notion causes most finance academics to foam at the mouth, but
volatility is the friend of the value investor. Every stock has a great
deal more volatility than does the underlying business. For example, I
found that the average S&P 500 stock over the past year ranged nearly
30% from its midpoint price to its 52-week high or low. Detailed knowledge
of a company can allow you to take advantage of this volatility. The key
is being able to assess a stock's approximate fair value. With that
knowledge in hand, a stock's volatility over the course of time will
likely present an opportunity for you to acquire shares at a price below
your fair value estimate. 3. Risk is defined by financial strength, predictability of cash
flow, and quality of earnings; as opposed to the size of company, number
of years in business, and the volatility of the stock. This is a fantastic definition of what risk is and what it is not. Big,
old companies are not necessarily conservative investments.
AT&T (NYSE: T) and
Ford (NYSE: T)
investors over the past year can attest to that fact. It's the Olstein
perspective on risk that makes me a very comfortable owner of tiny
Integrity Inc. (Nasdaq: ITGR).
The company has only $71 million in sales and a market cap approximately
half of that, but I consider the risk to be low given its reliable cash
generation and pile of cash in the bank. 4. We would rather spend one night with a company's financial
statement looking behind the numbers via an inferential analysis, rather
than one day with management. Management is not the answer to error
avoidance and defensive investing. Unlike managers, the numbers rarely lie. Name practically any company
that's fallen from glory over the past year because of financial disaster
-- Enron, WorldCom (Nasdaq: WCOM),
Gap (NYSE: GPS),
VeriSign (Nasdaq: VRSN)
-- and you have an example of a company that you'd have been better off
studying the financials than talking to management. 5. Waiting for the catalyst to appear before buying an undervalued
stock will result in the purchase of a fully valued stock. I like this one a lot because I believe sheer value to be a perfectly
sufficient catalyst in and of itself. Remember
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) at
$10 a few years ago? There weren't any catalysts in sight back then, but
the stock traded for a P/E of under 8. Today, the stock is at around $31,
selling for about 19 times earnings. 6. The timing in value investing comes from paying the right price.
Unfortunately, the right price usually occurs in conjunction with negative
business fundamentals and/or periods of negative psychology. A good example is Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV)
during the week after the events of 9/11. Amidst a huge swell of negative
psychology, a short-lived opportunity arose to buy the premier airline for
$12, or around 15 times trailing earnings. The stock has since recovered
to its pre-9/11 levels above $18. As Warren Buffett has said, "A great
investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a
one-time huge but solvable problem." 7. The most important virtue of a value investor is patience.
Periods of misperception usually take longer periods of time to unwind,
but the rewards for patience can produce the returns you seek. For beaten-down, hated stocks, patience is a must. An example from my
own portfolio is Elan Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: ELN),
which I bought after it tanked on accounting concerns this year. I bought
knowing that the stock had little chance of recovering anytime soon, but
with a single-digit P/E ratio, enough cash to cover its off-balance sheet
debts, and a legitimate pipeline of several promising drugs, I liked
and continue to like my chances of an eventual turnaround in the stock
price. I'm willing to wait the likely 12-24 months necessary to get the
payoff I'm expecting. 8. You cannot limit your search for value. Value can occur in large
companies, small companies, cyclical companies, growth companies,
technology companies, etc. Setting up artificial barriers to investing can
be performance limiting. William Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust has used the same broad
concept of value to beat the S&P 500 for the past decade. In the
mid-90s, Miller was brilliant to buy Dell (Nasdaq: DELL)
and AOL (NYSE: AOL) at
seemingly high multiples to current earnings given the earnings boom that
both companies were about to enter into. Value investing doesn't mean
buying a certain type of company; it just means buying companies that are
undervalued based on a rational, conservative analysis of the
fundamentals. 9. Having a strict sell discipline based on cash flow valuations
rather than the price momentum of a stock is difficult to practice, but it
is a required discipline of a value investor. When to sell is the most difficult question an investor faces. As a
value investor, though, the answer is clear (if not still difficult in
practice): Sell when a company reaches your estimate of full valuation. In
my own portfolio, I've begun to sell a retailer that has shot up 100% from
my purchase price a little over a month ago and recently surpassed the
low-end of my estimate for fair value. It has been difficult to sell given
the awesome momentum, but this is the discipline necessary to keep my
portfolio positioned in companies that all have rationally determined
valuation upside. 10. Never allow tax decisions to take precedence over investment
decisions. Any overvalued stock should be sold regardless of tax
consequences. We hope your biggest investment problem is high taxes
produced by high profits. I think tax consequences were one of the main reasons investors hung on
to overvalued stocks during the mania. The desire to avoid taxes is so
strong that it occasionally warps good investment decision-making. This
principle is related to #9: Nothing should stand in the way of selling
your fully valued stocks -- not stock price momentum, not taxes,
not a "moral" commitment to long-term investing. When a stock reaches full
valuation, it's time to sell. These are just 10 of Bob Olstein's investing principles. For his 20
other value investing tenets along with numerous interesting
articles, I encourage you to visit the "In the Manager's
Opinion" section of Olstein's website. Matt Richey
is a senior investment analyst for The Motley Fool. At the time of
publication, he was long on Integrity Inc. and Elan Pharmaceuticals and
had no position in any of the other stocks mentioned. Matt's personal
portfolio is available for view in his profile. The
Motley Fool is investors
writing for investors.
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