3 ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL There are many ways to soften the inevitable transition to a world in which oil is more expensive. They include more efficient cars, smarter land use planning, mass transit, and alternative fuels but we won't begin implementing them, at the local or national level, until we recognize that a grave problem looms. At the moment, this nation is asleep at the wheel. Time is short. If we want to retool our transportation systems, a world oil peak in 2010 or even 2020 is next month. A peak in 2005 is a train wreck tomorrow. But few are talking about this predictable development. Even fewer are planning for it.

Today an average Chinese uses just 1/25th as much gasoline as an average American. As the region's economic growth continues, Asia's appetite for oil could prove insatiable.

ROAD WARRIORS In 1900 oil married the automobile. Together they gave birth to a century of travel. Today oil is so thoroughly woven into the fabric of America that we can't imagine life without it. Fish don't worry about water and Americans don't worry about oil. Instead we swim in it. Think of your life: the kid schlepping, commuting, and errand running. Skiing on the weekend, Thanksgiving at mom's, a conference in Chicago, a jaunt to Vegas or Lake Powell, a Sunday drive to Grand Junction. I know middle-class Coloradans who do their Christmas shopping in Minnesota at the Mall of America. Texans drive 1,000 miles to shoot a Colorado elk, hunting-and-gathering taken to new extremes. Oil is fundamental to agribusiness: the average potato travels 750 miles. How long have people in Colorado been eating bananas grown in Guatemala and beer brewed in Germany? How much longer do you think? Will driving a Saab to Moab to go mountain biking be a weekend option in 2050? By then Saabs will get 80 miles to the gallon and so it might be. Then again, maybe not.

FROM THE CRADLE TO THE GRAVE

More than half the world's oil and 70% of U.S. oil will be consumed during a single human lifetime. That span happens to coincide with the Baby Boomer generation born after World War II. The graph at left shows the phenomenon. The Boomers were conceived as auto culture kicked into overdrive. As newborns, they were driven home from the hospital in a car. They grew up listening to songs like Mustang Sally and Little GTO. Getting a driver's license was their rite of passage. During their lives many Baby Boomers will drive and fly a million miles, equal to 40 trips around the globe. Magellan and Amelia Earhart were the famous circumnavigators of their day. Now every man is Magellan, every woman Amelia.

SLICING THE PIE Geologists estimate that U.S. oil production will ultimately total 260 billion barrels. A sliver of that pie was consumed between 1859 and 1949, the first 90 years of the Oil Era. A much larger slice if we can call 70% of the pie a slice will be used between 1950 and 2025. Our grandchildren and their kids' kids will inherit what's left. By 2025, when U.S. population will exceed 300 million, just 15% of U.S. oil will remain.