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SNOOZE YOU LOSE When our grandchildren ask
where all the oil went, how will we answer them? We're
engaged in a one-time hydrocarbon feeding frenzy the likes
of which the world has never seen before and will never see
again. As someone who once drove a pickup truck to Patagonia
I may not be the best person to ask, but is there a
neglected ethical issue here? About a year ago I was
standing on Main Street in Aspen when a semi drove by.
Emblazoned in large letters on the side was a question:
WE'VE SHOT ALL THE BUFFALO NOW WHAT DO WE DO? In 1872 there
were 15 million bison roaming the Great Plains. A decade
later only a thousand were left. Pelt hunters had ruthlessly
slaughtered the rest. The heedless waste, the bloodthirsty
savagery seems criminal today. I wonder if future
generations will view our pell-mell liquidation of oil,
arguably Earth's most valuable resource, as equally
senseless, shortsighted, and greedy. If there were a ready
substitute that would be one thing. But there isn't. In
fact, there is no substitute for oil in the ways and volumes
in which we use it today. Petroleum is a gift of geology, a
one-time windfall and we're spending it like there's
no tomorrow.
LYRICS Everyone has their favorite car song. Daddy
took my T-Bird away… Every woman I know is crazy about
an automobile… I've got the fastest wheels in
town…. Mustang Sally, you better slow your Mustang
down… I drove my Chevy to the levee, but the levee was
dry… Oh Lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz. My
friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends…
 CAR BOMB You hear
about the population explosion. And yes, the
population has doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion
since 1950. In the same period, car numbers shot up
from 50 million to 500 million. Cars, in other
words, are reproducing five times faster than
people. They're breeding like (VW) Rabbits.
WHO WILL FUEL CHINA? America was first to enter
the Oil Age. We got a 60-year headstart on most nations. The
developing world is racing to catch up. From Asia to Africa,
three billion people crave the automobile lifestyle. Who can
blame them? Mobility is wonderful. GM, Ford, and Toyota are
building new plants in China, India, and Thailand. But Asia
is oil poor. India has almost no oil. High hopes for new
discoveries in the Tarim, a frontier basin in western China,
have not been realized. The Chinese national oil company is
investing in Venezuela, Gulf of Mexico, and Caspian
Sea a telling vote of no confidence in prospects at
home. Without large domestic reserves it will be impossible
for China and other densely populated countries to develop
an oil-intensive lifestyle like Americans enjoy. If India
and China used as much oil per person as we do, world
production would have to triple. It can't; there's not
enough oil. But if it could, all the globe's remaining oil
would be consumed within 20 years. After that… well,
you wouldn't have to worry about your next car payment.
Looking ahead, the tremendous inequities in oil
distribution and consumption are morally
troubling and militarily worrisome. As oil depletion spreads
worldwide, by 2015 five nations in the volatile Middle East
will produce half the world's oil. As more Asians take to
the road and demand outstrips supply, oil prices will rise.
Economic jousting for oil who can pay most is
certain. Military confrontation can't be ruled out. With
America using three times more oil than any other nation,
future generations of young Americans may again take to the
battlefield for oil.
Left, five countries in the Middle East have two-thirds
of the world's remaining oil. Right, the largest oil
consumers. The U.S. uses three times more than Japan, eight
times more than England.
REALITY CHECK Which nations have oil and which
nations use it? Fully two-thirds of the world's oil is in
five Muslim countries. The chart at right explains why
Iraq's Saddam Hussein gets press, why the State Department
frets about Iran, why the U.S. military did not leave Saudi
Arabia after the 1990 Gulf War, and why we fought that war
in the first place. (George Bush: "Our way of life is at
stake.") America's future, Japan's future, Europe's future,
China's future, Europe's future…all are inextricably
linked to the Middle East. In the deserts of Saudi Arabia,
the U.S. military is building fortified air bases.
Ostensibly we are there to protect our Saudi friends. In
reality, we are an occupying force protecting our access to
their oil. Some Saudis are resentful of our presence, as we
would be if they were building air bases in Nevada. Would we
leave their county if asked? I wonder. My son is 7. He'll be
18, fighting age, in 2009, about the time an Oil Crunch may
arrive.
 OPEC REDUX As the U.S.
produces less oil, we must import more. Indeed,
America imports more oil than any other nation
uses. Uncle Sam's appetite is humonguous, verging
on gluttony. We import more than Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, Spain and
Sweden collectively use. And why not, because at
$15-$25 a barrel, imported oil is a steal. The tab
for 1997 came to $67 billion, less than 1% of the
nation's gross domestic product. The bargain may
not, indeed can not, last. As global population and
oil demand rise, more and more people will be
competing for less and less oil. By 2015, only a
handful of nations will be exporting significant
quantities, and a revitalized Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries, our old OPEC
nemesis, will be in driver's seat again, able to
control prices at will. Since Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Iraq, and Kuwait can sustain their projected
production past 2020, the world will not suddenly
"run out" of oil. But $16 a barrel will be a thing
of the past.
SPORT UTES In recent years, as oil prices have
plummeted, Americans have fallen in love with gas guzzling
minivans, light trucks, and sport utility vehicles. In
Seattle Microsoft millionaires drive Humvees. Light trucks
and sport utes command 45% of the new car market in the
U.S., a powerful trend aimed in exactly the wrong direction.
That these vehicles sell well is not surprising. They tower
above traffic, can summit Everest, and are safe in a crash
(good because sport utes have more than their share.) If
they're thirsty, so what? Gasoline costs are only 1/8th the
total cost of driving. Driving a car that gets 30 miles per
gallon rather than a 15-mpg sport ute saves about $520 a
year not much in many budgets. Americans care little
about fuel efficiency because gasoline is inexpensive. In
Europe motorists pay $3 to $5 a gallon. Most is tax, added
by governments to encourage conservation. A Suburban has a
40-gallon tank. Filling up in Finland would cost 200 bucks.
Needless to say, Finns shun Suburbans. Bargain-rate gasoline
has a hidden cost, but we don't pay it at the pump. Rather,
we pay $50 billion in taxes to (Occupation by Means of Military) protect access to Persian
Gulf oil, we pay in smog and premature deaths from air
pollution, we pay in climate change. But when gasoline is
less expensive than milk, Americans have little incentive to
conserve. People aren't dumb.
If gas is cheap, oil must be abundant. Big is best. If
you have an Explorer I'll get an Expedition. It's a 'fuels
paradise.' Party hearty.
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