Part 6
1918 found Europe back in peace but with tensions not much lower than in 1914.
Some tension would also start coming from previously unpredicted directions.
The United States had stayed out of the war. Given its outcome public opinion
was just as glad about it and wasn't particularly sympathetic to either side.
The was a large liberal group that was in favour of the western allies. That
group was further supported from atrocities on the part of the central powers,
a very effective Entente propaganda and the German submarine warfare. Meanwhile
the large German immigrant community was understandably in favour of their
native land over her European rivals. The Irish were also disliking Britain
and such feelings became only stronger with the British army putting down
the Easter uprising in 1916.
Both groups were willing to agree that it was better that America had stayed
out of the European mess. After all from the pro Entente group's point of
view the Entente had won even without the US so in retrospect US military
intervention was somewhat superficial. For the anti-Entente groups keeping
the US out of the war was good enough as having it join on the German side
was arguably not feasible.
Economically the United States had prospered during the war as most of its
possible economic rivals were busy destroying each other and massive war
orders were placed by the Entente powers. US agriculture exports had grown
somewhat less markedly than someone before mid 1915 would expect as Russian
exports had then resumed but had been still large.
Thus the US kept on its isolationist policy while approving a massive naval
build-up with no less than 18 battleships to be added to its existing 17
dreadnoughts. It was not quite clear against who this was. Stated USN goal
was achieving parity with the large European navies. Several groups loved
it for their own reasons. For the isolationists the large USN could keep
the problems of the world away. For imperialists and internationalists it
allowed the US to project power around the world. For the industry it meant
large profitable contracts while labour could hardly dislike the resulting
jobs. That it grew the British concern was an unintended but considerable
side effect. Relations with Japan and the recovering Germany also suffered
from the USN build-up.
Among the great powers Japan was the other great beneficiary of the war with
its economy rapidly growing and the acquitance of most German Pacific and
Chinese possessions. Japan had also provided valuable support to the Entente
although this did not create any great feelings of gratefulness on the western
part. "Naturally" Japan had her own toy acquisition project so called 8+8+8.
The Tokyo earthquake would put it into strain but the Japanese navy nevertheless
kept the construction
going if on a slower pace while Japan was rebuilding. This gave additional
headaches the British admiralty which did not quite know with whom to compete
first. Still Britain was rather disinclined to leave her alliance with Japan
especially given the US neutrality and Japan was quite welcoming the alliance
as well.
Russia was among the winners of the war. On the other hand it had over 1 million
dead and millions more wounded during the war and had suffered economically
during it. Russia wasn't entirely happy with the peace settlements as well.
While moderates found the treaties good enough and were content with the
Pontian and Polish satellites and the settlement over Constantinople more
extremist voices would had preferred all three to be mere provinces of the
empire.
Almost inadvertedly some of the pre 1908 distrust and tension between Britain
and Russia started resurfacing as Britain and Russia found their spheres
of influence and possessions much closer. Russia wasn't so happy with France
over Constantinople and the creation of Poland. This was largely overseen
but two rival factions started emerging in the Russian elites. The first
called for keeping the alliance with France. The second would prefer to see
Russia coming closer with Germany.
Politically Russia faced a sensitive situation. The three main groups consisted
of absolutists in the right, communists like Lenin and Trotsky and a broad
coalition of moderate forces Keresky holding power for the time being. Peace
and the victories just before had kept the worse off and gave Kerensky room
and time to work with. But as time passed post 1918 Russian politics started
coming increasingly more polarized.
The right wing started getting increasingly dominated by what was generally
thought of as fascists outside Russia. While having much in common with it's
Italian counterpart it held a much broader ideological spectrum compared
to it. Among its ranks could be found from violently anti-Semitic black hundrends
to supporters of the return to absolute monarchy. Panslavism was the dominant
but not the sole ideology among the Russian fascists. Besides the "Slavojanofili"
the panslavists could
be found the "Vostochniki" the orientists outright rejecting westernization.
While not particularly influential early on Orientism turned in it's final
form into "Eurasianism" would have interesting effects in the evolution
of Russian fascism.
By comparison the Russian communist party was far less influential especially
given the internal troubles it was facing after the death of Lenin. If anything
separatist tendencies among the various nations of the empire were deemed
more of a danger than the communists.
Italy was somewhat dissatisfied from the outcome of the war. It gains were
modest, or at least a lot of Italians thought as much. The performance of
the Italian armed forces during the war was also source of no little concern.
While Italian torpedo boats had made a quite impressive showing in the Adriatic
the battleline had suffered a severe defeat in the battle of Otranto losing
two out of her 5 dreadnoughts to the Austrians. The single dreadnought the
Austrians had lost while seriously damaged by the Italian battleships had
been lost to torpedo attacks and the Kriegsmarine beating a rather hasty
retreat in the sight of the Greek and French battlelines coming to the Italian
aid.
That at the end of the war the Greek and Austrian battleline were of comparable
size with the Italian one while the French battleline was more than twice
larger wasn't something acceptable to a navy than professed itself as among
the strongest if not the strongest navy in the Mediterranean. Despite the
cost the Italians went ahead with repairing Leonardo da Vinci and completing
their Carraciolo class battleships while follow on classes for the 1920s
went into the drawing board.
Italy kept an overly aggressive foreign policy towards Austria Hungary while
it kept looking for possible colonial expansion elsewhere. Ethiopia which
had beaten back a previous Italian colonization attempt in 1896 was a potential
target. Turkey was considered another. Greece and Serbia were deemed potential
antagonists and relations with both started getting gradually colder.
Tensions were also building inside the Italian society with the newly created
fascists and a growing communist party. In 1923 no more than 25,000 fascists
would march on Rome and the royalist government and army failed to counter
them despite ample capacity to do so. Bennito Mussolini had risen to power
with the de facto if not de jure consent of the monarchy.
Part 7
Austria-Hungary had suffered worse than any other state in the war.
Someone could find a little consolation in that the losses losses had established
a more homogenous state. The empire found herself without the bulk of her
prewar Polish, Ukrainian, Romanian, Italian and Serb populations. as it
was noted with a bit of irony this left just Germans, Hungarians, Chechs,
Slovaks, Croats, Slovenians, Jews and smaller groups to deal with. Discord
even among the leading nations of the empire was also showing. The Germans
were increasingly looking towards Berlin instead of Vienna as the national
centre. Hungarians hated outright the current emperor and were not willing
to see their position changing. Chechs during the war had made their hopes
of independence crystal clear and tens of thousands of Chech émigrés
could be found outside the empire's border in the aftermath of the war.
Franz Ferdinand was intent on saving the empire from her coming doom. To
the horror of the Hungarians he went ahead with applying his pre war
ideas. Thus the dual empire turned to the triple empire of Austria-Hungary-Bohemia.
The reform gave the empire a breathing space but came at the cost of further
alienation among Hungarians and Germans while the political compromises
forced to make the change at trialism at all effectively meant that the
army of the triple monarchy would effectively consist of nearly independent
armies of the member states as to the pre war Austrian and Hungarian armies
was added a Chech army and all three gradually went more independent and
larger. While the imperial army found itself at constant budgetary problems
from disagreements among the 3 the same did not hold so much true among
the "national" armies. Quality widely varied with Bohemia and Austria having
the best forces.
The sole consolation for Franz Ferdinand was the empire's navy as the
naval race in the Adriatic resumed in the 1920s. Vienna, Budapest and Prague
all agreed for their own reasons on funding the fleet unlike the army. Couple
with industrial capacity still larger than Italy's the triple monarchy
proved able to keep her own against the Italians throughout the decade.
The triple monarchy was alive and even prospering. It was also growing apart
with each passing year and many observers believed it would not survive
Franz Ferdinard. The question was more whether her constituent parts would
break away amicably or not and whether the crisis would expand over the
rest of Europe when it came. France and Britain weren't particularly in
favour of seeing Germany absorbing Austria and the Sudetenland, at least
not without compensation to keep the balance. In Germany not all were content
with seeing a pro French Czechoslovakia come to being.
France was victorious having regained Alsace and Lorraine. The cost
in lives doing so had been heavy but not unbearably so, France had actually
found herself with a slight increase in population as the roughly 1.8 million
[1] of Alsace Lorraine more than covered war losses in absolute numbers.
But France had also in her eastern border a much larger Germany bound for
revenge while her alliances with Britain and Russia were becoming less secure.
As both nations recovered from the war the French found themselves
in an arms race with Germany. France had managed to establish a technological
lead over Germany during the war and by 1917 French army tactics were as
good as anyone else in the world and better than most. Faced with his larger
opponent in the east and in the wake of the successful 1917 offensives in
the west the French army built uppon it's existing wartime edge. Thus during
the 1920s with Foch and after him Petain [2] leading the French general
staff the army's organization was heavily influenced first by general Estienne,
the father of French tanks, and increasingly by one of Petain's young protégés
Charles de Gaulle. By 1929 the French army was the most mechanized
force in the continent and France sported better tanks and aircraft than
Germany.
Still with the German army following more or less the same road the size
disparity between France and Germany kept looming over French strategic
thinkers. The very fast growth of the French economy during the 1920s was
some consolation but wasn't redeeming the population disparities. If anything
it made the need of a larger workforce even more acute. Already before the
first world war France was receiving relatively large numbers of immigrants.
With the US closing to immigration and her own manpower problems even more
evident France opened herself more to immigration both from her colonies,
mainly Algeria, as well as Europe. Internal opposition to that policy was
evident and troubling but this did not stop France from receiving and benefiting
from large number of immigrants.
The French navy found itself being antagonized by Mussolini's Italy as well.
That was a race France could and did win. If anything the French were far
more troubled by the British distaste over a continental commitment and
the internal troubles of Russia making the alliance with Moscow less secure.
Partly as a counterbalance, partly in order to keep Germany encircled France
created an array of military alliances with Belgium, Poland, Romania, Serbia
and Greece. Britain short of her own alliances with Belgium and Greece
was rather more reluctant over the first ties in Eastern Europe.
Germany had been humiliated. It faced the problem of showing her people why
she had to concede defeat while it was supposedly winning and its armies
were in enemy territory. Perhaps worse was a large part of the officer corps
and army veterans holding similar opinions. There were also political problems
as the imperial constitution was becoming more and more unworkable. Germany
needed a scapegoat. She found it in Austria-Hungary mismanaging the war
and forcing Germany to peace. It needed an ideology and political change.
Pangermanism could play this role and the army was quite willing to back
"liberalization" of the political life as long as it left its millions of
veterans backing backing pangermanist policies and the expansion of both
army and navy, while even some socialists were in favour of some of
the internal political measures. [3]
That Germany should prepare for revanche was generally agreed. Against whom
was a different question. England, France, Russia even the triple monarchy
presented an array of potential targets and Germany did not particularly
like any of them. Germany resumed naval construction as soon as the armistice
was signed trying to cover the ground lost during the war. With chancellorship
going from Ebert's social democrats to Tirpitz's Pangermanist league during
the 20s and the role of the army strengthened at the cost of the Kaiser's
power Germany kept steadily arming while trying to improve its strategic
situation through diplomatic means. Germany tacitly supported the
pro-anschluss circles in Austria while trying to build upon the personal
ties between Wilchelm and Franz Ferdinard to keep her alliance going for
as long as the triple monarchy would keep being on the map. For the
day after Berlin had already opened links with Budapest. Mussolini's Italy
was another potential ally if some agreement over the Duce's hopes in the
Adriatic could be reached. And Berlin wasn't shy to be in contact with the
browns in Russia in hopes of bringing Russia into the German camp.
Britain found itself with a deteriorating strategic situation throughout
the 1920s. The empire had won the war. The economic cost had been heavy but
relatively manageable, British debt to the United states was a around 2.5
billion dollars and Britain was owned more money from her European allies.
[4] Britain's position as the world's banker had taken a heavy hit but hadn't
been shattered. The British economy recovered and grew through the decade
perhaps not as fast as France and Germany but still notably.
The German navy had ceased to be a danger for a while as it was down to 18
battleships compared to Britain's 39 at the time of the armistice. Even
the 2 power standard was being kept as the Hochseeflotte and the USN put
35 battleships together. Then the Americans went forward with doubling
their fleet, Germany having refused any clause on the size of its navy in
the treaty proceeded with finish the 9 battleships she had in various states
of construction and starting further classes in the 1920s, Japan went forward
with her own massive naval program and even smaller powers like France,
Russia, Italy and the triple monarchy entered the fray to the extend their
economy allowed.
Britain had somehow to keep up with her antagonists while facing troubles
both in the Middle East and increasingly in Ireland. The Irish problem was
ended by granting Ireland independence while securing the RN presence in
Irish ports. The two powers standard was changed into an "one power" standard
while the role of the Dominions in imperial defence was increased.
With Germany deemed the major strategic threat Britain kept most modern
units of her fleet, especially the newer N3, G3 and G4 battleship classes
, in home waters to counter the Hochseeflotte.
In the Pacific Britain couldn't antagonize either the US or Japan at least
while facing the Germans at the same time. Thus the Anglo-Japanese alliance
was renewed despite adversely affecting relations with the United States
and the foreign office put increasing efforts trying to solve troubles between
the US and Japan. British naval present in the Pacific was kept in such
levels that combined with Japan they'd be a match for the US Pacific fleet.
This left the Mediterranean were Britain returned to her 1914 strategy with
the French navy taking most of the weight. To this was added a small but
still significant Greek navy especially for a role no one would openly admit,
namely countering the Russian naval presence in Constantinople. RN ships
frequently showed up in the Aegean and the two navies kept close ties including
a British naval mission in Athens.
[1] Mitchell, "European Historical Statistics 1750-1970" gives 1.874 million
for Alsace Lorraine in 1910.
[2] Who ATL was conveniently in the Balkans gaining both his fame and experience
in the offensive.
[3] The socialist laws can take care of these pesky fellows if they go out
of line.
[4] Overall allied war costs are less than half the 57 billion of OTL. The
same holds true for the central powers but less so German war costs are
around 80% that of OTL.
Part 8
Come 1916 the Ottoman empire or the
remains of it were in a sorry state. The terms of the treaty of Galata had
been applied at gunpoint by allied armies with the nationalists failing to
make any changes. Post that the empire had itself with a Kurd uprising and
civil war in her hands. The civil war had ended in a compromise between
the sultan's government and the nationalists as its continuation had threatened
to tear apart what remained of Turkey. The sultan maintained his throne
in Bursa but he by late 1916 he was becoming once more no more than a figurehead.
The new rising star in Turkish politics was general Mustafa Kemal. Kemal
had made a name from himself first in Libya against the Italians and then
in the defence of Galipoli against the Anzacs and the Greeks. His command
had been actually wiped out there but had fought longer and better than any
other Turkish unit. The general and his supporters were not shy over creating
a myth over it and Kemal was ruthless, capable and pragmatic all useful traits
on what passed for politics in Bursa at the time. Kemal's senior supporters
were young Turks nearly to the last even if this was generally played down.
The Turkish government first concentrated on securing full control of
the territory left to her by the peace treaties. The Kurdish uprising ill
equipped and lacking organization was crushed quickly and so were dissenting
factions that could threaten the civil war. Then Kemal turned his view over
the possibility of regaining any of Turkey's lost territories. Kemal's doctrine
deemed the whole of Anatolia as a homeland for homogenous Turkish state.
The state inherited by the war was homogenous in the aftermath of the population
exchanges or enough so anyway with the christians removed. It hardly held
all of Anatolia. The straits, Ionia, Cilicia, Trebizont and Armenia were
all terra irredenta for Turkey.
It didn't take much to decide that any immediate attempt to regain any
of the lost territories would fail. Constantinople, Trebizont and Armenia
would mean a war with Russia and certain destruction. Cilicia was under
Italy and the Italians didn't give any signs of being willing to leave it,
quite the contrary as the Italian settlers indicated. Ionia would mean a
war with Greece. Even if Greece was alone in the fight Turkey at the moment
was hardly in any position to take on the Greeks and win. The Turkish navy
was non existence, Greece had come out of the war with a large battle hardened
army liberally supplied with modern arms, while Smyrna and the whole Erythrean
peninsula had been quite extensively fortified providing the Greeks with
a secure bridgehead.
Kemal opted to bide his time. Turkey had first to be modernized and rebuild
her army and navy before entering any foreign adventures. Reforms went forward
often enough by force during the 1920s. In the aftermath of the population
transfersabout 2 million Greeks and Armenians had left Turkey with a little
less than 3 million Turks taking their place. In overall the conditions of
the ttransfershad been relatively smooth and the assets of moth groups roughly
eequal. Evenso relocating both populations without undue strain or damage
had taken quite some effort by the governments involved. Turkey was adversely
affected by the loss of what was the greatest part of her skilled workforce.
At least the war had been over fast enough for Turkey to leave her economy
relatively unscathed.
Compared to Ottoman days the economy would do better by far during the
1920s with very high growth rates. Unfortunately for Turkey this wasn't enough
to much affect the balance of power with most of her neighbours. Turkey's
GDP kept being considerably behind Greece and her population wasn't much larger
either although there the disparity between the two countries would gradually
increase.
Diplomatically Turkey renewed relations with her allies during the war.
Bursa and Sofia found common ground in antipathy towards Greece and Serbia.
The triple monarchy shared a common threat from Italy. And the Turkish army
and navy found themselves again with German arms and training missions.
Greece was among the countries that had most benefited from the war. Between
1912 and 1917 it had tripled in size and the population exchanges with Turkey
and Bulgaria had established a largely homogenous state. Greece also found
herself with large Armenian and Jewish communities within her borders. Both
were well integrated inside society and Greece was somewhat notable in the
her absence of anti-Semitism. Constantine had died before king George and
his son the would be George II normally had ended accepting the throne of
Trebizont after clashing with his grandfather and Venizelos during the war.
After the death of George I in 1919 the throne had passed to Constantine's
second son Alexander who was rather more co-operative with Venizelos and
unlike many members of the royal family very popular after his marriage with
a Greek.
Venizelos was for every practical reason the man ruling Greece. He was
highly popular in "old Greece" and wildly so among the more recently liberated
Greeks. Venizelos liberal party was dominating Greek political life as a
result and went ahead instituting a broad array of economic and social reforms
in the decade after the war. The Greek economy was one of the few to actually
benefit from the war [1] and the acquisition of Ionia opened up further
opportunities. Throughout the decade the Greek economy kept growing fast.
By 1929 industrialization levels were well ahead from anyone else in the
Balkans. [2]
The one sore spot for Greece was her international relations. Both Bulgaria
and Turkey were openly hostile. Relations with the Triple Monarchy
and Germany were "correct" but no one much doubted allegiances. Relations
with Russia weren't hostile but weren't particularly friendly either as the
two countries often found their interests conflicting given the Greek ties
with the western powers. Relations with Italy often varied with the mood
of the Duce but generally Italy tended to be antagonistic with Greece and
her allies often enough. But the two main threats were Turkey and Bulgaria.
Greece found herself increasingly outnumbered as the time passed in
case it had to fight a two front war as it seemed likely. Fortunately for
the Greeks their larger economy allowed them a much better equipped army
and air force than either of their two neighbours while they were not the
only country that felt threatened by Turkey and Bulgaria.
As soon after the war was over Greece, Serbia and Romania came together
establishing the Balkan league with French auspices. Montenegro was
soon added to the alliance. The league practically encircled Bulgaria between
hostile nations neutralizing her in case a war was confined in the Balkans.
The Greek navy was of central importance for Greek strategy and to some
extend for the Balkan league as a whole as it was the only considerable naval
force the league had at its disposal. The prime goal of the navy was keeping
it's superiority in the Aegean in case of war. The possibility of the RHN
finding itself in conflict with Italy, Austria-Hungary -Bohemia or even the
Russian Constantinople fleet couldn't be overseen as well. The Greeks correctly
decided that they didn't have the resources to seriously compete even the
secondary battleship race that was taking place in the Adriatic and that
they weren't likely to find themselves in such a war without at least one
of the Entente great powers on their side as well. Thus the RHN concentrated
it's resources on naval aviation and the light fleet. Only single battleship
was completed by 1929.
[1] See Dertilis for the most recent calculation of the Greek GDP over
the period.
[2] As in OTL actually per Bairoch, although here the gap is going to be
even larger as the Greek economy doesn't suffer the effects of the Asia Minor
disaster.
Part 9
As of 1929 a bit less than 12 years have passed since the treaty of Geneva
ended the great war. All nations of the continent have more or less
recovered from the economic damage caused by the war. Most of Europe is
prospering compared to 1914. Not every advanced nation though has done as
well as it's counterparts. By 1929 some of the changing trends are becoming
quite notable.
The United States is securely the largest economic and industrial power in
the world. American GDP is larger than all the other great powers on
the planet combined. Industrial output is nearly a match for the next 3
largest industrial powers combined. The gap between the US and the rest
of the world is somewhat closing with time but still the sole thing preventing
the US from being the sole superpower is American isolationism. Russia
is in the middle of a rather major economic boom. In 1929 it has just overtaken
Germany's position as the second largest economy on the world. Her industry
is still lagging behind USA, Germany and Britain but is catching up fast.
Should the country survive it's mounting internal problems unscathed in
less than a generation it will be far stronger than anyone else on the continent.
And unlike the US Russia has every interest in wielding her power.
Germany is still the second largest industrial power on the planet and barely
into the third place in terms of GDP. But Germany's relative position towards
France and especially Russia is eroding. It is not so much Germany not being
one of the fastest growing economies of the world as her potential rivals
in the west and the east growing slightly and considerably faster respectively.
France has prospered after the war. Both her economy and industry are growing
considerably faster compared to the years before 1914 and over 1 million
immigrants mostly from Algeria and eastern Europe have provided a much needed
population boost. The French performance both economic and military wise
in the great war had provided the nation with not inconsiderable confidence
and the following decade keeps that spirit alive.
Britain is doing relatively well economically but not as spectacularly as
the continental powers. The British financial sector was hit hard by the
war but not catastrophically. Still the importance of the dominions in keeping
some short of economic balance with Britain's main rivals can't be understated.
Italy isn't doing bad but isn't doing spectacularly well either which given
her relative backwardness compared to the other great powers isn't particularly
good. The fascist rule and high military spending are in part responsible
for this.
For Japan the 1920s were somewhat mixed economically. With the possible exception
of Russia Japan has the lowest per capita income among the powers. The 1923
earthquake and crisis in agriculture have hardly helped either. Still Japan
is doing well with exports and has a larger per capita industrial output
than many richer nations.
Austria Hungary Bohemia is doing well economically but this fact is often
lost in the growing internal troubles. Still the triple monarchy is a match
for Italy. Or would be if all three constituent parts actually end up on
the same side in case of crisis.
Poland is often considered the strongest among the small powers. Its economy
has done well post independence. Sandwiched between Russia and Germany and
with her foreign policy practically following Moscow's word the influence
Poland could expect otherwise is severely limited.
Greece is the other "strong among the small". Her economy has done spectacularly
well since 1909, and Greece is witnessing the industrial revolution a century
late. Per capita industrial output has more than tripled post 1912.
Turkey is among the fastest growing economies of the planet. On the negative
side it has started from too low which partly accounts for the fast growth
rates.
Serbia suffered heavily during the great war. It has rebuilt and witnessed
some reasonable growth. While not as good as Greece or Turkey it has done
rather better than Bulgaria or Romania. Montenegro is effectively integrating
economically with Serbia and political union doesn't seem improbable. Unless
Mussolini has different ideas.
GDP in millions of dollars 1913
USA 92300
Russia 18889
Germany 18535
France 14730
Britain 14395
Italy 6750
AHB 6064
Japan 4930
Greece 1921
Poland 1902
Romania 1594
Turkey 1102
Serbia 889
Bulgaria 552
Industrial output 1929 (Britain 1900 =100)
USA 518.7
Germany 212.4
Britain 171.4
Russia 154.8
France 94.7
AHB 63.3
Japan 51.5
Italy 46.4
Poland 15.0
Greece 7.1
Serbia 2.8
Population, selected countries, 1929
Russia 221,762,000
USA 119,100,000
Germany 71,654,000
Japan 62,100,000
Britain 46,297,000
France 43,293,000
Italy 40,616,000
AHB 38,119,000
Poland 22,524,000
Romania 13,010,000
Turkey 12,296,000
Greece 8,426,000
Serbia 8,330,000
Bulgaria 5,934,000
Part 10
On paper as of April 1929 the European alliances haven't
much changed since 1914. Germany and the triple monarchy are still technically
allies. Italy is often enough seen as sitting on the fence. The Entente is
still there as well although all 3 main members have quibbles among each
other. Outside Europe the only powers of some account are the United States
and Japan. The United States are still clinging on their isolationism. Japan
is a British ally much like 1914. The balance of power stills to be holding
despite the triple monarchy's internal troubles.
Emperor Franz Ferdinard has the somewhat dubious privilege of being the
man to inadvertedly topple the balance for a second time when he dies in
April 6th 1929. The death of the emperor effectively brings the death of
the empire as well. Kronprinz Karl not having the best of relations with
Franz Ferdinard is in Switzerland at the time of the death thus unable
to immediately take action. Austria Hungary and Bohemia aren't necessarily
willing to see the triple monarchy falling apart but their goals wildly diverge
by 1929.
The Hungarians want either an independent kingdom of Hungary to include
Slovakia and parts of Austria or Hungary becoming the dominant part of the
union and if possible seeing the slavic pole of the monarchy dismantled altogether.
The Chechs are willing to see a very loose federation and free trade zone
but nothing beyond that. The Austrians have become increasingly dubious
over the uses of the triple monarchy and the factions favouring union with
Germany increasingly have the upper hand.
Any hopes of the triple monarchy being dismantled in peace are torn away
when the Hungarian honved is mobilized and the Chechs and Austrians follow
suit with their own mobilizations. With Czech and Austrian claims over the
Sudetenland conflicting with each other, Chechs and Hungarians in conflict
over Slovakia and Austrians and Hungarians in conflict in the Adriatic
it doesn't takes much for the empire to fall into a 3 sided war. Or
a 4 sided one if someone counts the Croat revolt.
By the end of June the triple monarchy is nothing more than a legal
fiction. The imperial army has been too weak to try holding the country together
by it's own. Worse yet with the majority of its officers being of German
origin it quickly breaks up and gets largely incorporated into the Austrian
army. In the meantime the conflict has involved into full scale war raging
from the Adriatic coast to the German border. Hungary generally fairs worst
in the fighting. Chechs and Austrians are considerably more industrialized
and field rather more effective armies than the Hungarians who also have
to deal with the Croat revolt. In the Sudetenland were Austrians and Chechs
fight against each other the Austrians generally have the upper hand due
to popular support unofficial aid from Germany and the Chechs concentrating
most of their efforts into Slovakia. In Slovakia the Hungarian army is repeatedly
defeated by the Chechs who drive it out and only the fighting in Sudetenland
and Czech fear of Hungarian invasion stop worse from happening. In the Adriatic
the Austrians advance into Slovenia. Further south the Croat revolt is proving
too successful for Hungarian confort.
For the months between April and July the Austrian succession crisis is
steadily involving into a problem of European proportions. Germany expects
to absorb no less than Austria. Italy under Mussolini sees the situation
as a golden opportunity to expand at the former triple monarchy's cost. Britain
isn't particularly happy at the idea of Germany adding her own ports to the
Mittelmeer division or Austria uniting with Germany. On the other hand
the British don't want to get into a war if it can be avoided. France is
emphatically against the idea of Germany adding Austria into the empire,
without Germany compensating elsewhere at least, but the Poincare government
is not really willing to go to war with Germany on its own thus needs either
Russian or British support. British support isn't very forthcoming. Russia
is a different matter.
It is true that Alexandr Keresky is in favour of backing the western powers
and the whites have the majority on the duma. The browns are exactly pro German
either but between finding common ground with the western powers and doing
the same with Berlin the tend to prefer Berlin. Resurfacing tensions in the
relationship with Britain post the great war also result in Milioukov's factor
of the whites finding common ground with the browns. Thus Russia seems to
be willing to back France. Under the surface it faces the possibility that
its decade old internal crisis will come to open clash.
All things considered Bennito Mussolini isn't that well known for being
overly cautious or any serious lack of grandeur. In July 15th the Italian
army crosses the Austrian border while Italian forces land in Dalmatia. The
AHB navy torn by internal conflict keeps largely to port while the Croat
revolt has adversely affected Dalmatian coastal defences. France reacts recognizing
the independence of Czechoslovakia quickly followed by the Little Entente
and with some reluctance Britain. Germany moves forces to its borders with
Austria . Russia remains silent much to the concern of everyone.
For the Hungarians the Italian intervention is something of a blessing in
disguise. The Italians take the brunt of the fighting against the Croats allowing
Budapest to make inroads against the rebels. The cost namely losing Dalmatia
to Italy is heavy but Hungary faced potentially worse otherwise while the
Italians also effectively neutralize the Austrians. For the Austrians it
is military disaster as nearly 50 Italian divisions with air and armor support
drive into Istria and Austria proper. The Austrian army puts a near desperate
holding action against Italy but the only solution Vienna sees is anschluss.
With the pro-anschluss faction now firmly in control and the Austrian army
seemingly unable to hold back the Italians, Berlin, Vienna and Rome find
themselves at increasingly frantic negotiations.
Germany mobilizes early in August in what is seen as a prelude to declaring
union with Austria. Her mobilization is shortly followed by most of the continent.
Or at least the part of the continent that hadn't already mobilized earlier
on. France and Russia warn Germany against unilaterally uniting with
Austria or invading Czechoslovakia. Berlin keeps silent and London does not
go further than declaring it would protect the Low Countries and the French
coast in case of war. The British hope that the second reich will take such
warning seriously after the great war. The admiralty with Winston Churchill
is making certain plans about the AHB fleet should anschluss happen...
Since 1915 Cilicia has been something of an open wound for Italy as Turkish
backed guerillas kept fighting against the Italians. With the bulk of the
Italian army and navy tied up in central Europe and the Adriatic, Mustapha
Kemal takes his chances. A week after the Italian attack on Austria nearly
400,000 Turks stream over the Cilician border catching the Italian high command
by surprise. The Italian garrison even counting Armenian and Greek "colonial"
forces is outnumbered by about 4 to 1 and quickly overwhelmed. Two weeks later
the Turkish army is in the coast of the Mediterranean, tens of thousands of
Greeks, Armenians and Italians have died and the greatest part of Cilicia's
christian population has fled either to Cyprus or French held Syria with the
remaining following them into exile. An Italian counter invasion would be
problematic even if not fighting elsewhere. Kemal calls upon Berlin to arrange
a peace settlement with Italy.
It takes a month for Germany and Italy to come to an agreement and then
get Austria and Hungary agreeing as well. In August 15 Austria asks for union
with Germany. The Reichstag votes in favour the next day and the German army
enters Austria. Simultaneously a cease fire is enforced between Austria and
Hungary and over the Italian front with Italy keeping Istria and and Dalmatia.
The Hungarians are left free to finish off the Croats and turn uppon the Chechs.
Karl remains king of Hungary.
France and Russia issue a joint ultimatum in August 16th against the anschluss.
When Germany fails to respond war is declared in August 18th. Italy declares
her neutrality . Britain declares herself cobelligerent with France
and Russia announcing protection of the French coast. Belgium stays
neutral but after not inconsiderable pressure allows the British army to
deploy in advance to defend against the possibility of German attack. The
little entente, Greece, Serbia and Romania keep neutral but large Serb and
Romanian forces stay deployed on the Hungarian border.