The stray bullet TL parts 11-15

The stray bullet TL
parts 11 to 15

Part 11

The first shots of the second European war come from a neutral and target an entity that legally does not exist any more or is a neutral counting on which diplomat is asked. In the night between August 17th and 18th Churchill sends the Fleet Air Arm after Fiume and the Austrian battleships based there. Catching the defenders by surprise and the ships largely unmanned, the Blackburn Ripons of the HMS Courageous, Hermes, and Glorious open a new chapter in naval warfare sinking 4 out of the 7 battleships of the Kriegsmarine lying there.

Among the actual combatants Germany has mobilized the largest army of the continent, 216 division, Facing it there are 120 French divisions in the west and 170 Russian and 45 Polish divisions in the east. The German army has more aircraft and tanks that either of its opponents alone but is outnumbered by both combined. The French army is the most mechanized force among three. Russians and Poles the least.

Technologically the Germans and the Entente are roughly on par. The Luftwaffe's fighter force is largely built around Arado Ar-64 and Ar-65 fighters which are roughly as good as Armee de'l Air's Newport Delage 62 and Dewointine D-27. The Polish P-7 is something of an oddity being probably the best fighter in the world but available only to the Poles and in limited numbers at that. The French can hope of gaining qualitative superiority with the newer D-500s and MS-225 that are entering service at the start of the war and all countries have more designs in the drawing boards. The three opponents most common tank designs aren't much differing in capacity either although the French heavy and medium tank designs are generally superior to the German ones. Unlike 1914 the German war plan calls for putting the weight of their efforts against Russia while staying on the defensive in the west. The French and Russian plans are more...traditional, with the Russians attacking into Germany and the French doing the same should the main German effort be in the east. In the east the front turns in a gigantic battle of engagement as the Russian and German thrusts meet each other. Russia's internal troubles have affected the efficiency of the high command as politically acceptable generals aren't necessarily capable as well. Coupled with better mobility and training on the German part the results are disastrous. The Russian attack into Germany is driven back with over a million Russian and Polish casualties by the end of September. In the following 3 months the Germans keep the initiative in the east forcing the combined Russians and Poles behind the Vistula in Poland and advancing along the Baltic coast further north. Russian and Polish casualties by then are in excess of 3 million men. Things are far bleaker for the Germans in the west. Their successes in the east have been largely due to putting the bulk of their available forces there. Thus the French attack into the Saar is met by considerably inferior numbers on the German side. With the Armee de'l Air controlling the skies over western Germany French armor and infantry drive the Germans out of Saar before September is over. By the year's end the French army is holding everything west of the Rhine and south of the Mosel including Trier and Mainz. The French have paid brutally for their success suffering around a million casualties but German casualties have been worse and their position greatly enchaced.

Britain is particularly by the turn of events and a major war going on in the continent. Under pressure from its more warlike members, namely Churchill, the cabinet while not in the war yet has taken active steps in support of France. The Royal navy is covering the French coast while shipments of war material going to France. Units of the British army have been already deployed in Belgium [1] ostensibly to protect its neutrality from the Germans. It is becoming increasingly clear to the British government that if the war continues Britain may well be dragged into it. The British are also concerned about the economic situation. The USA suffered from a serious financial panic when the war was declared thus floating loans for arms and supplies in the US market has become more difficult, although France, Russia, Poland and even Britain are making orders nevertheless. [2] The war is even proving something of a blessing in disguise on that extend as economic mobilization and war orders are diminishing the effects of that crisis. For the time being at least. Following events in Russia Churchill comes to power in February. The new prime minister doesn't declare war on Germany right away as the French hoped but most consider it just a matter of time to happen.

Italy is fence sitting. Both the Germans and the French can offer potential spoils but Mussolini doesn't thinks the war has been decided yet to risk his country taking sides. Churchill in his correspondence [3] with il Duce has made clear Britain will take a dim view of Italian adventurism against Entente allies in the Balkans. Mussolini is not quite sure this is not a bluff or Churchill's personal opinion but post Fiume is not so eager to find out. This leaves attempting to retake Cilicia but embarrassingly enough the Italian navy doesn't have enough amphibious capacity for such an operation to succeed. Mussolini practically enough is working a deal with Bursa recognizing the situation in exchange for trade concessions.

Russia has suffered worst from all in the war thus far. The defeats at German hands prove the spark putting on fire the Russian political powder keg. The fascist led right wing in the duma was against war to start with. With the defeats and the British neutrality Miliukov joins them putting Kerensky's hold of it precarious. In February 1930 the issue is decided in the worst possible way as general Kornilov's troops and St Petersburg and the Black hundreds make a coup against Keresky. Loyalist troops fight back but the damage is done. With Russia descending into chaos and civil war Poland is essentially left virtually alone facing the Germans in the east. By April the Baltic states and Finland have declared independence and been already recognized by Germany.

Even with Russia knocked out of the war Germany is in a somewhat unenviable position. The French and British have heavily reinforced Poland during the winter making an offensive against it costly, Czechoslovakia had 8 months to build up her army and enter the war on the French side and Britain is liable to do at any time. And between Russians and French Germany has lost over two and a half million men so far plus part of her industrial heartland. Letov von Vorbeck the leader of the ruling Pangermanists may be a nationalist but that doesn't make him blind. Germany can't defeat France, Britain and assorted minor allies alone. France can't hope to force the Germans out of union with Austria and the war is costly to both. Thus the most practical course of action would be for the Entente to receive some compensation in exchanging for recognizing the anschluss and bring the war to an end. The French beating back a German attempt to drive them out of their gains in April gives further incentive for trying a negotiated end to the war.

Von Vorbeck passes his proposal for an armistice through the kaiser to his nephew in Athens. As expected Alexander passes it to Venizelos and the Greek PM, one of the best diplomats of Europe and with excellent connections both in Paris and London, doesn't lose time arranging things. Cease fire comes in May followed by a peace conference in Athens between Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Even if no one is particularly keen on seeing the war restart negotiations drag on for months and in the end it is largely due to Venizelos and Churchill's pragmatism [4] that a final agreement is reached 3 months later.

[1] Where given the international situation the Belgians kept their alliance with France post 1927 but remain neutral in the present conflict.

[2] No repression on OTLs magnitude given the lesser shock of world war 1.

[3] which kept on even during WW2.

[4] In the Yalta sense.

Part 12

Russia of 1929 looks stronger than it ever was to most foreign observers. Her economy has massively grown after the great war and population is well over 200 million people. Her army is huge even if not as modern as these of France and Germany. At 21 battleships and rising the Russian navy can't be quite overlooked. Russia is also a leading power in aeronautics, especially multi-engined aircraft mostly thanks to such prominent designers like Igor Sikorski and a growing number of younger ones from Tupolev to Sukhoi and Mikoyan.

Underneath the giant is a rotting body though. It is true that post the Duma revolt of 1917 sweeping change was made and 1929s Russia is much more democratic and modern than its 1914 predecessor. A point can be made though that change was both not enough and too much at the same time. Not enough as the "Duma revolt" could not go far enough with liberalization and the Tzar holds considerable power to throw back behind the increasingly radicalizing conservative factions. Too much as it has allowed enough freedom both to extreme political groups ranging from the black hundreds to militant Bolsheviks and anarchists and to an array of separatist groups from Finland to central Asia. Worse yet the liberals are disunited in front of a multitude of enemies.

The spark Russia is waiting comes with the defeats at German hands in 1929. The browns, the Russian right wing coalition, weren't happy with the war from the start. What they see as British treason in neutrality and the defeats prove enough for the fascists to act. Kornilov's coup in February 1930 doesn't goes as smoothly as planned and Kerensky loyalists fight back. Tsar Mikhail II throws his weight behind the browns. By March 1930 with the rest of Europe still at war the whites of Alexandr Kerensky and the browns of Nikolai Maklakov and Felix Yusupov are fighting over the barricades of St Petersburg and Moscow. They are quickly joined in the fray by a large number of smaller players as Finland, Armenia and the Baltic states declare independence and Caucasus muslims revolt. More strange creations from Joseph Jugasvilli's "ethnic communist" state of Transcaucasia in Georgia and the Caucasus to the Central Asian socialist republic and the greens in Ukraine also appear on the map.

By June the browns are solidly in control both imperial capitals as well as north and central Russia. Siberia and Byelorussia have largely gone to the browns while the Ukraine and south Russia to the whites who have managed to destroy the Green there. The Caucasus while nominally white is in chaos. The central asian socialist republic is engulfed into internal fighting between Russians and muslims. With military operations starting to increase in pace as both sides armies get organized the frontline in mid 1930 is following the Ukrainian border to Kursk from there to Voronez on the Don river and then following the Don to Tarytsin and from there following the Volga to the Caspian sea in Astrakhan. Areas south of the line are mostly controlled by the whites, north of it by the browns. In the north the browns are fighting against Finland and the Baltic states who are backed by the Germans. The whites with the odds not seeming to their favour have recognized the independence of the new states. While the brown forces in Siberia largely led by Eurasianists invade the CASR in Europe the brown take the offensive against about everyone. Central Asia's attempt at communism crumbles under the weight of the brown armies. The Baltic states drawing uppon German support hold their own. Further north the Finnish army drives back the invasion and counterattacks into Karelia. In Ukraine the Whites beat back the brown offensive. A young not particularly well known officer, Georgi Zhukov, rises to some prominence inside the white army in the Ukraine battles. The browns may be considerably stronger compared to the whites but fighting on a multitude of fronts aren't doing particularly well anywhere. The whites launch a counterattack that comes close to threatening Moscow in December before it can be checked, while the treaty of Athens in September has left Germany free to support Finland and the Baltic states and has opened the possibility of Polish intervention. Reluctantly Maklakov and Mikhail come to the conclusion that the can't fight anyone at the same time, the whites have to be taken care first. After their destruction the question of the Baltic can be revisited on different terms. With the treaty of Riga in December 17th 1930 the browns officially recognize the independence of Finland and the Baltic states.

The escape of the Russian Baltic fleet battlecruiser squadron to Sweden makes world headlines in April 1930 but hardly affect the civil war. The Russian Baltic fleet more than held its own against the Germans during the war. It had started with 4 old Gangut class battleships, 4 Izmail class battlecruisers and 6 modern 43,000 ton battleships with 16 inch guns. The Russians actually won a battle in the gulf of Riga in January only for the coup to come the next month. The Russian Constantinople fleet declared for the whites. Most of the baltic fleet has declared for the browns with the exception of the battlecruisers and their escorts which try rushing for western waters. Vice admiral Kuznetsov's ships evade the modern battleships squadrons, decimate the Ganguts at are unfortunate enough to be in their path sinking all of them, only to intercepted by German battlecruisers further west. Ismail already damaged in the previous battle is sunk and Kuznetsov is forced to sail his ships into neutral Sweden.

The Caucasus starts with an all against all with Armenians and Russians fighting the muslims and sometimes each others and Jugasvilli's Georgians fighting all in addition to rebels inside Georgia. By the summer of 1930 the muslim revolts are dying down while Jugasvilli's "Transcaucasia" is going down under Armenian, Pontian and Russian attack. Tsalik as Jugasvilli ends up known ends up executed by the Pontians in Tiflis late in 1930, but his reign of terror has cost the lives of thousands before destroyed.

For Mustapha Kemal the Russian civil war seems an almost unbelievable opportunity after his victory in Cilicia the previous year, provided he plays it right. Things in the west haven't changed match Greece doesn't need Russia to defend Ionia or the straits and an attack threatening Entente supply lines to the whites wouldn't be particularly advisable yet. The Pontian kingdom and Armenia are different questions though. Attacking the Pontians may well bring the Greeks in the war and with Cilicia not a year past Mussolini could well join them. Attacking Armenia is a different question though. Come August half the Turkish army under Ismet pasa is unleashed into Van and Erzerum. Armenians resist with fanatism but are overwelmed. By November the Turkish army is back on the 1914 border and Armenia has signed a treaty joining white Russian. The christians in the areas recovered are forced out. About 300,000 Armenians get killed outright. A further 100,000 thousand will die in the Caucasus winter. For Armenians it is a disaster on par with the 1896 massacres. [1]

Armenians aren't the only group to suffer this way during the civil war. In brown controlled areas the black cohorts have a virtually free reign and the progroms launched against Jews are unpreceded in scale and ferocity. Nearly 600,000 are killed and almost 2 million flee Russia largely going to Palestine France and French Algeria. Relatively smaller but yet significant numbers flee to South America, mostly Argentina, the Constantinople free state, Greece [2] Britain and South Africa. Yet smaller numbers find their way to the United States, the progroms were not enough for US immigration rules to significantly relax and Germany. Come 1931 the browns with most other fronts closed turn all their efforts against the whites. White armies are steadily driven back under the pressure despite generally better leadership of their part. By June the front has been driven back to virtually the point it had started from the previous year. In July the browns launch a second invasion of Ukraine.

Poland has grown increasingly troubled by the situation to her east. The civil war has allowed the Poles to proclaim a republic after Nikolai died thus throwing off the most visible sign of the Russian influence but till peace was signed with Germany they couldn't do much. Now the brown advances threaten to sever the links between Poland and their allies in the west which Warsaw doesn't find particularly tolerable. When the browns invade Ukraine the Polish army turns east. 1 million men veterans of the war with Germany and better armed than both the whites and the browns hit the brown advance to the south in the flank.

The Polish intervention turns the tide again against the browns. The Poles proved better than the Russians fighting by their side in 1929. They prove as much against the browns in 1931. The Poles and the whites drive the browns out of Ukraine link with each other. And then are stopped cold by the browns. Destroying an outflanked invasion force was one thing. Successfully taking the offensive against someone holding most of Russia's industry and population an entirely different thing. For the next 6 months both sides end with ample proof that the war has been brought into a stalemate. Continued brown offensives against the Poles and the whites essentially fail with large casualties and little ground gained. Polish and white Russian counterattacks at best restore the ground lost in brown offensives.

Neither Maklakov not Kerensky are interesting in seeing their fellow countrymen dying by the hundrents of thousands to no end. Neither is willing to compromise either. Reluctantly they agree to a cease fire in christmas 1931, formal peace when it comes to Poland. The Russian civil war is over for the time being. Both Kiev and Moscow are relatively certain a certain round will come in the future to determine the final winner. Fascism and democracy will be wearily seeing each other over the new borders for years to come.

In the Caucasus the war has already ended since the spring. The Turkish army was poised to go beyond the 1914 Ottoman borders. But this time this would be coming to direct confrontation with the whites. The Entente didn't particularly like to see her white allies faced with one more large opponent. Germany isn't entirely certain she wants to see the browns winning either. From Berlin's point of view a divided Russia is far better for German interests and Letow von Vorbeck rather distastes the browns.

In March the Greek army concentrates into Ionia poised to attack. A Serb expeditionary force in addition to British and German troops are deployed in Constantinople the Serbs as a "loan" to Russia the British and Germans on explicit agreement to leave with the crisis over. The Serbs and British deploy on the Turkish border. The Germans are there to keep the balance inside Constantinople. French troops are massed in Syria with an expeditionary corps deploying in Ionia as well. The offer sent to Bursa through Berlin is relatively simple. White Russia and Turkey will agree on a return to the 1914 borders. Should the Turkish army cross them the Entente will invade Turkey. Kemal doesn't lose any time to agree. In two years he has managed to regain land lost to Russia and Italy and offered official recognition of his gains. That is more than good enough.

[1] The Armenian genocide was stoped at her early stages in 1915 by the collapse of the Ottomans then.

[2] Thessaloniki is the possibly the largest Sephardic city in the the world in 1930 and Smyrna also has a relatively large Jewish contingent ATL.

Part 12.1 Peace settlements

Treaty of Athens between France, Germany, Britain, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Italy

1) Istria annexed by Italy

2) Dalmatia annexed by Italy

3) Austria and the Sudetenland annexed by Germany

4) Slovenia, sans Istria, and including the port of Fiume annexed by Germany.

5) Czechoslovak independence is recognized.

6) The kingdom of Hungary recognized as the successor state of the triple monarchy. Hungary to be ruled by the house of Hapsburg. Karl to resign the titles of Austrian emperor and king of Bohemia. All the AHB navy to be taken over by Hungary.

7) Posen annexed by Poland.

8) Military protection of Luxembourg to be undertaken by France.

9) Saar annexed by France.

10) Independence of Finland and the Baltic countries is recognized.

11) The treaty to be considered binding between Germany and Russia as well. Germany not to seek border changes with Russia.

Protocol over minorities between France, Germany and Poland.

1) An exchange of population to take place between the signing countries involving the areas annexed by Germany and Poland.

2) Ethnic Germans in areas annexed to immigrate to Germany.

3) Residents of Saar of French language or otherwise declaring themselves affiliated with France to remain in the Saar, should the French government accept their declarations.

4) Poles residing in Germany can choose between going to Poland or France.

5) Full monetary compensation to be given to all exchangees for non removable assets.

Arrangements ending the Russian civil war

1) Bukovina and former Austrian Galikia passes from Russia to Poland.

2) Formal peace with Germany is accepted.

3) The border between Tsarist and Republican Russia to follow the following line: From the Polish border following the Pripet river to Mozyr. From Mozyr to Gomel. From Gomel to Bryansk. From Bryansk to Orel and then east to the Don. Following the route of Don to Tsarytsin. From Tsarytsin following the route of Volga to the Caspian.

Arrangements between Turkey and Republican Russia.

1) Van and Erzerum districts annexed by Turkey

2) Exchange of populations involving the christians of the 2 districts and a similar number of Caucasian muslim rebels.

Part 13

With the Christmas armistice ending the Russian civil war in stalemate peace returns to Europe once more. While the second European war economically proved less costly compared to the Great war, coupled with the Russian civil war it has has claimed around 4 million lives, a number easily comparable to the 5 million of 1914-17 war. Most European countries are not particularly keen in seeing one war costing a few million lives fought per decade.

The previous decades have seen the continued proliferation of a variety of shames for multiethnic organizations, from the United states of Europe, an idea dating back to Saint Simoninsts of the 19th century and championed by such people like Aristide Briand and Eleutherios Venizelos in the 1920s, to smaller schemes like the Balkan league.

The second European war brings one of these to fruition when the league of nations first proposed by US president Wilson in 1917 is finally created in 1933. Based in the city of Geneva in Switzerland the league spreads to encompass all of Europe sans the two Russias as both claim entry as the true Russia and decline entry to the other one. Outside Europe almost every country sans the United States also joins the league. The United States stay for the time uninterested.

A league supreme council is established with with permanent members having the right of vetoing League decisions. The UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan are the first 5 permanent supreme council members. In hopes of future US and Russian entry provisions for the admission of more permanent council members are made.

For the United States the 2 decades post the great war were good and mostly uneventful. The 1929 economic crisis was quite a shock with GDP dropping by almost 25% but by the end of 1931 the US economy is already well into the road of recovery, helped to no small extend by European war orders. Under Roosevelt, the US enters a period of quick economic growth

Politically the first cracks in US isolationism can be seen. The US shows rather little interest in getting involved with Europe. Its relation with Germany is relatively good to no small extend due the large Irish and German American communities. Relations with Britain are friendly although the naval antagonism and British alliance with Japan have taken their toll. In the Pacific relations with Japan are polite if not particularly warm and that is the direction the increasing US interest in foreign affairs looks to. The concentration of most of the USN there with major bases in Cavite and Pearl Harbor as well as the military construction in the Philippines are signs of the increasing interest of the US in the region. Silently the Americans are trying to move the European colonies in the area to the direction of independence. There is no inconsiderable US interest in China as well. Only a few are concerned with the Russian pacific presence as most don't take it seriously.

Germany was turned back into the second largest economy on Earth after the Russian civil war and the incorporation of Austria. The great war was quite devastating but fortunately for the Germans not as much as it could have been if it continued and the economy more than recovered in the 1920s. The second European war the loss of Saar and Posen notwistanding has left Germany with more people and industry than it had started with and by 1938 the German economy is booming.

Not all is has been well for the Germans though. Germany fought 2 major wars in the past 20 years to see the first being lost and the second ending in a stalemate. This has taught some humility to both the German ruling elites and the general staff and made them somewhat adverse in seeking a third round with France. The naval antagonism with Britain continues but oddly enough given the past half century Germany is increasingly finding common ground with Paris as fascist Russia keeps growing ever stronger during the 1930s potentially threatening most of the rest of Europe.

Britain had 2 reasonably good if worrisome decades. It played a crucial role in allied victory in the first European war and managed to keep out of the second European war. Its economy remains the third largest in the world and together with the empire it is comparable if not larger than Germany. Nevertheless the British strategic position keeps deteriorating. The old two powers standard is but a memory from the 1920s. The one power standard that replaced it is maintained only due to the active participation of the dominions and even then Britain is hard pressed to keep it as German and US industrial capacity keep growing.

Geography presents its own problems as Britain has commitments all over the world. With an aggressive fascist Italy and Russia again a threat, Britain is unable to concentrate everything against the possible German threat. The entente with Japan while certainly helpful doesn't mean that Britain is free of obligations in the far East.

The Empire is both an asset and a handicap for Britain. Dominion and Indian military and economic contributions are vital for the empire. At the same time this forces London to take the dominions opinions on foreign policy far more seriously than it would have done otherwise especially with her dependence on dominion contributions increasing with time.

In India growing nationalism presents its own problems finally forcing London to offer India dominion status within 10 years when the second European war starts in 1929. The Indian congress recognizing that full independence is not feasible right away, not to mention noticing that the other dominions are getting more or less fully independent as the time progresses is quite willing to settle for the offer.

By far though the greatest internal problem of the empire is in the middle east. Back during the great war the Ottoman collapse in 1915 forced Britain to try keeping the peace over her new domains and enforcing the treaty of Galata with very limited forces. Compromises had to be made and were actually made creating a number of semi independent kingdoms in Arabia and promising Jews a state in Palestine as well.

The Russian progroms against Jews in the 1930s have forced a huge flux of Jews in Palestine. Arab reaction to this is less than positive and tensions between the two communities rise. By 1940 Britain is facing strong nationalist movements inside both Iraq and Egypt supported by Russia, Italy and Germany to various extends.

For France the decades after the first world war were something of a golden age. It has taken back its lost provinces all the way back to 1814 with the incorporation of Saar. Luxembourg may find itself a part of France in the not too distant future. Economically the 1920s have been better than the the 1930s but the French economy is still showing quite respectable growth rates nevertheless. French pre wars population problems have been mostly alleviated from the increasing flow of immigrants especially from Russia.

Diplomatically things are getting complicated for the French. The entente with Britain is holding but the two countries are gradually distancing themselves somewhat in the aftermath of British neutrality in the second European war and Britain's general policy of trying to keep away from any strong continental alliance that might entangle the country in a new war. The two countries sometimes find themselves antagonizing each other outside Europe which puts some additional tension in their relations. The French central and eastern European allies are feeling as much threatened by Russia as they are feeling from Germany and even in Paris a lot of people are starting to perceive the fascists as more of a danger than Germany. For the first time since 1870 Germany and France find themselves reproaching themselves in a serious way. A lot has still to be done but by 1940 France and Germany are much less liable to find themselves coming to blows and even cooperate sometimes.

Much like Britain France faces has problems with the rise of nationalism in her colonies. French reaction varies from military action and settling refugees from Russia in Algeria to furthering attempts to fully integrate Algeria and Lebanon with metropolitan France.

Italy has had the misfortune of Mussolini leading it since the 1920s. Worse Mussolini looks largely successful gaining Dalmatia and Istria in 1929. This has strengthened both the position of Italian imperialists as well as that of the fascists while strengthening il duce's already strong ego. Italy's economy and industry have kept growing but they are still not comparable with any of the other European great powers.

Thus Italy's real problem in the 1930s is the increasing danger that either its adventurism will set off a major European war or it will get it into a conflict either with France or Britain which is liable to lose. Even if it avoids them in the highly antagonistic international environment of the 30s potential victims for Rome's ambitions are becoming rare not to mention usually armed to the teeth. Increasingly good relations between Rome and Moscow are something of a concern as well.

Both Russias are unfortunate places to live in the early 30s with the civil war and its aftershocks. The brown state the one usually referred as Russia much to the chagrin of the Whites is a mix of old style Russian absolutism and fascism with Michail holding the reins of power together with Maklakov. The fascist hold on power doesn't affect Russia's economic growth. It hardly affects investment in the country. Led by people like Henry Ford foreign investors keep streaming into the country. The anti-Jewish progroms initiated during the civil war are continued after its end expelling most remaining Jews by the decade's end. That Russian military power is hardly affected as well given the large armantment programs initiated by Maklakov is an understanding.

Compared to the brown areas the white ones, that come to be known either as Ukraine from the main white holding or democratic Russia, are in a far better condition as far as the rule of law and civil rights are concerned. As Ukraine holds some of the major export markets of the old Russias with its grain and the industrial and mineral production of the Don basin and the Caucasus it is able to quickly recover from civil war and economically grow. Everything though is being done with the fascist menace looming on the north and there are also substantial internal problems with the millions of refugees created by the war. Besides that fascist Russia is nearly twice the size of her democratic counterpart and grows fast enough for the gap to actually widen with time.

Japan was with the US the greatest beneficients of the great war and kept growing in power afterwards. But through the 1930s the country is facing no small internal trouble from the growing power of the militartists. The continued alliance with Britain has adversely affected the militarists rise but failed to stop it despite strong opposition inside the country. The second European war and the Russian civil war give the Militarists an advantage. The Japanese army occupies Manchuria in 1931 in the midst of the Russian civil war. In the following years tensions with China and Japanese incursions into Japanese territory constantly rise. Relations between Tokyo and Moscow aren't good either especially as Japan tries to use the republican Russians as a possible counterweight.

Part 14

That China of the time wasn't taken seriously was an understanding among Europeans and the rampant warlordism, corruption and backwardness of the ancient empire was not helping to change this icon. By 1921 though a reformist government led by Sun Yat Sen had been established in the south. Germany having lost her own holdings in China to the Japanese was quite happy to sell weapons and send military advisors. Russia soon followed the German lead on a limited scale in the 1920s on a considerably larger scale in the 1930s as the browns came to power.

With the German and Russian aid the KMT would manage to take control of most of China by 1925 and enter a rapid modernization program afterwards. The KMT still faced trouble from some warlords and a small communist party but the warlords could not match KMT troops firepower and training and Maklakov would make certain that the communists much like their European brethren would remain insignificant.

The biggest threat for the KMT would prove Japan. The Chinese government was not able to do much when the Japanese occupied Manchuria in 1931 nor when the Japanese established the satellite state of Manchukuo a year. Things would be different by late 1937 when the Japanese army would launch a full scale war against China. China might not be as ready as the KMT could hope. It would be still stronger by far than Qing China ever was.

Poland was on the rise. Her population had increased from 16.9 million in 1918 to well over 30 million in 1938 and with the exception of the substantial Jew and Ukrainian minorities was mostly homogenous. The Polish army had stubbornly defended during the second European war and while it had lost ground Poland was still standing unconqured at large when the war was over. Polish entry in the Russian civil war had probably saved the whites, further enlarging the country as well. While still mostly an agricultural country Poland started to close the economic gap with the more advanced regions of Europe helped to no small extend by the Polish overseas communities and French investments. Still the country faced the menace of vastly more powerful opponents both east and west. Much like Poland Greece was one of growing power of the day among the smaller European nations. A little over a century post independence Greek per capita income levels were comparable with western Europe at around 75% the French levels. The country also found itself with an array of enemies from Turkey in the east, to Bulgaria in the north and potentially Italy in the west while having military obligations to the Pontian kingdom further east. While Turkey had a population nearly twice that of Greece, Greece could rely on a stronger navy and air force as well as a better trained and equipped army. Bulgaria was both smaller and poorer. Things were getting much more complicated in case of a multiple front war or Italian intervention.

In an attempt to counter potential strategic encirclement the Greeks found themselves a leading member of the little Entente, together with Poland and Czechoslovakia and closely related with Britain and France. This wasn't entirely without trouble as it increased the chances of a clash with Italy or a war in central or eastern Europe spreading all the way to the Balkans and Anatolia.

Czechoslovakia was the last state to join the Little Entente, being the last member to win independence. Even without Silesia and Sudetenland the young nation controlled enough industry to place it among the 10 biggest industrial powers in the world and this quickly translated to a booming economy and a very formidable army and air force by 1938. If the Greeks formed the bulk of the Little Entente's naval power and her supply line to the west and the Poles the bulk of its independent military power on land the Chechs were its arsenal. On the other side of the pond Hungary, Bulgaria and Turkey played the role of a counterweight to the Little Entente. As such they were woefully inadequate alone should they find themselves at war with all 5 nations of the little Entente as combined they easily outweighed the joined Hungarians Bulgarians and Turks by more than 2 to 1.

Hungary rather ironically had become the last incarnation of the Hapsburg empire. It had inherited from its late predecessor a fleet, a few million Croats and other Slav minorities not particularly happy about being in Hungary, close to a million German with a keen interest in keeping aligned Hungary the right way, namely as a German friend and a long list of grudges almost with every single neighbour it had. On the positive side it had inherited a working, though mostly agricultural, economy and the last of the Hapsburgs to its throne. Having Karl had both its advantages and disadvantages though. One one hand the former emperor and current king was a relatively capable honest man. On the other he was forced to follow Germany's lead on foreign policy and his relationship with less liberal personalities like admiral Horthy was problematic. Hungary treaded along into the 1940s trying to compromise between its great power past and great power ambitions and its modest means. That it did not manage much in furthering her imperial ambition didn't really count as much as her success in science, were Hungary had some of the leading scientists in fields like nuclear physics to commuting and aeronautics.

For Turkey after the disastrous 1910s the late 1920s had been a great success as Kemal managed to regain Armenia and Cilicia, albeit the actions of the Turkish army in both had put a stain on her name. Economic growth easily kept outpacing the booming population [1] even if it wasn't so fast in the 1930s as in the 1920s. When Kemal died in 1920 he left behind to Ismet pasa a modernizing nation. And what Turkey considered still open accounts with the Pontians, Greece and the Constantinople state. Or further in the list French Syria and the British Iraqi satellite.

[1] By the late 1930s Turkish GDP levels are roughly 2 decades ahead of OTL between less damage during alt world war 1 and the war being effectively over for Turkey by 1916. Population trends are following a similar path. Which may well end in a Turkey with much higher per capita income if with a smaller population by 2000.

Part 15

Despite the creation of the league of nations in 1933 tensions in Europe and Asia keep high during the 1930s given Italian and Japanese expansionism and the troubles between Russia and most her neighbours. In Europe Italy and Russia share several things in common from relatively similar regimes to antagonizing Germany and the western powers. The growing relationship between the two countries is formalized in the treaty of Rome in 1935. Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria find themselves on the Rome-Moscow axis if rather reluctantly.

Hungary isn't particularly trusting Italy and has ambitions to great power status in general and gaining Italian Dalmatia in particular but has even more troubled relations with her other neighbours. For Turkey the alliances with Russia and Italy are nothing more than a convenience in the road of her territorial ambitions. The increasing influence of Trubetskoi's eurasianism inside the Russian fascists gives some ideological connections on the alliance and Kemalism is often compared with the fascist regime in Italy but this hardly affects Turkish foreign policy decisions under Kemal or Ismet. Turkey also keeps her military connections with Germany from where most her arms imports are coming.

The rest of Europe isn't quite blind to the threats. Despite some growing disaffection the Anglo-French Entente remains a fact of life. Further north the Nordic neutrality pact binds the four Scandinavian countries. The pact while neutral can't help but lean somewhat towards Germany given the potential Russian threat while the Baltic states have all defense treaties with Germany since independence. Berlin and Paris however reluctantly also find more common ground by the day as Russia keeps growing.

In the middle east the hundreds of thousands of Russian Jews that reach Palestine, fleeing brown terror post 1930 are a red rag to the Arabs of the French and British holdings in the area. Syria openly revolts against French rule in 1935 only for the French army to rapidly put down the uprising. The open revolt is in turn replaced by a guerilla campaign, sponsored by Russia and Italy. It costs the Syrians a lot more than it does the French but it remains a constant irritant post 1935. A side effect is the alienation between the christian Syrian and Lebanese communities and the muslim ones are the first are usually on the French side and the latter often enough target all non muslims as pro French even when they are not. After some time the perception is actually turning into reality.

Britain faces similar troubles in the middle east if not direct revolt as France did in Syria. Back in 1915 Iraq and Transjordan had been established as semi independent kingdoms to get full independence on a later day while Palestine was offered independence within 30 years as part of the British efforts to establish control over the region after the Ottoman collapse. Post 1930 in their attempt not to take sides in Arab-Jew conflict the British troops in Palestine often find themselves targeted by both sides. Agitation is also spreading in Egypt Transjordan and Iraq as the nationalists find ready external support and keep growing in power by the day. Finally with the labour coming to power in 1935 the British government takes somewhat drastic measures with its colonial problems both in the Middle East and India.

India's dominion status officially comes into effect in 1st January 1940, a few years ahead of schedule. Egypt sees full restoration of its independence in 1936. Iraq, Transjordan and Saudi Arabia follow into the ranks of independent countries in 1937, 2 decades post the end of the great war. All 4 are ruled by pro British monarchs at the time of independence and British influence is rather heavy especially in Transjordan and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait and the Gulf emirates with their increasing oil production remain either under British "protection" or as directly controlled dependencies of London. This leaves Palestine to deal with. It is decided to formalize promised independence for August 1945 30 years after the treaty of Galata officially made Palestine British. How it will be partitioned between Jews and Arabs remains an open question.

The problems in Europe and the middle east also have their side effects in French North Africa. In the aftermath of the Russian civil war the numbers of the Colons of Algeria by more than a quarter million. Most of them where from Russia, mainly Jews and Armenians with smaller numbers of other groups. The Algerian population naturally adversely reacted to this even if French economic growth in the 20s and the 30s allowed absorbing the additional colon numbers with no undue strain.

The first Algerian muslim congress assembled in reaction calls for the abolition of laws permitting imposition of the régime d'exception, political integration of Algeria and France, maintenance of personal legal status by Muslims acquiring French citizenship, fusion of European and Muslim education systems in Algeria, freedom to use Arabic in education and the press, equal wages for equal work, land reform, establishment of a single electoral college, and universal suffrage.

Leon Blum's government reacts in turn by drafting what comes to be known as the Viollette Plan from the name of the socialists minister of state, immediately giving full French citizenship to some 30000 muslim Algerians while provisions were made to gradually increase the number over the years. Received with support by most factions of the Algerian muslim congress the plan faces rather more serious objections by the colons which are afraid of an overwhelming muslim electoral majority in the future. Still Blum and most of metropolitan France aren't interested in getting a second Syria on a massively extended scale and the rapid increase of the colons numbers in the 30s with mostly socialist voters helped tilting the balance in favour of the plan. The Viollette plan is officially accepted in 1938.

Mussolini heartened by his success in 1929 embarked in an invasion of Ethiopia in 1935. The League condemned the invasion but in the face of Italian vetoes failed to do anything beyond that. Germany was mostly uninterested in the face of Ethiopia. Britain and France were more concerned but failed to come with any short of action to stop the Italians. Met by a surprisingly effective resistance the Italians under Duke of Aosta were able to overwhelm the Ethiopians by 1936 but not without heavy use of air support and chemical weapons. The Ethiopian government would go into exile in Paris while the French would follow Italian practice in Syria giving arms and support to Ethiopian rebel groups whenever possible.

Most of Europe's attention in 1936 is centred into Spain rather than Ethiopia as a failed military coup ends into civil war. Both Russia and Italy provide arms, advisors and "volunteer' to the fascist side testing their equipment and tactics in the process. France isn't shy to supply the republicans in turn and Germany and Czechoslovakia are quite willing to sell arms to the republic that are delivered through France while more than 40,000 volunteers from Europe and the United States join the republican ranks. Italians and Russians just increase their involvement and by early 1938 there are corps sized Italian and Russian "volunteer" formations fighting in Spain while the Italian navy is often enough exchanging shots with republican ships and from time to time French and British ships in Spanish waters. The Russian presence isn't as proclaimed as the Italian one as tensions between Russia and Japan are on the rise during 1938, making Spain something of a secondary concern for Moscow but are visible enough to seriously concern Paris.

Finally in September 1938 with the fascists gaining ground in Spain and events in the far east increasing concerns over Russia, France decides to take matters in its hands. Germany when approached agrees easily not to object to the French intervention as part of the increasing Franco-German rapprochement. Britain is willing enough to support French intervention and for the RN to enforce together with the Marine Nationale a blockade of Spain. This leaves getting a sufficient pretext for intervention. The republican government is dominated by centrist and socialist factions but with the anarchists and communists as part of the government. Infighting between the three groups is common enough and the presence of anarchists and communists hinders open French action both for domestic French reasons and because neither of the two groups is favouring it.

In mid September 1938 at French prompting a socialist-centrist coalition replaces the existing republican government and promptly calls for league help in putting down the fascists. France and Britain jump in immediately declaring a blockade of the Spanish coast. In September 21 1938 a French expeditionary force under Charles de Gaulle crosses the Spanish border while the French army in north Africa invades Spanish Morocco.

The French army hasn't lost its edge in mechanized warfare since 1930, if anything tactics have progressed during and after the second European war and so has done technology. The Spanish fascists can't match the mobility of the French nor for that matter the firepower they can put to bear. Italian armor is utterly outmatched by it's French counterparts. Within 2 months of intervention the French have broken up fascist resistance. Isolated pockets of fascist resistance fight on into 1939 but the civil war has been decided in the loyalist favour. It nearly restarts between moderates, anarchists and socialists but the French backed moderates are strong enough to defeat the other two's attempts at insurrection in mid 1939 and compromises are reached afterwards. By the start of 1940 the Spanish republic is back on her feet, the French intervention force mostly back to France and Spain a western ally.

Forward to parts 16-20