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ffendy Juraimin

     

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Economics  |  Business  |  Technology  |  History  |  Miscellaneous

Quotes | Awards | My articles | History of economic thought | Microeconomics  | Macroeconomics | United States | Asia-Pacific | Links

 Quotes | Forecasting | Investment | Quotes | History | Comic | Quotes | World History | Earthquake | Cuisine

 

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Economics

Quotes in economics

"It's the economy stupid!"

 - James Carville, 1992, wrote on a white board in the campaign headquarters of candidate Bill Clinton during his run for the White House

"There's no such thing as a free lunch"

 - Milton Friedman

"Clearly' sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risks premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exhuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy? ..."

- Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996, at the annual dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C

“The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form, but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate 'given' resources - if 'given' taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these 'data'. It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only those individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge not given to anyone in its totality.”

- F. A. Hayek, September 1945, “The Use of Knowledge in Society”, American Economic Review, Vol. 35, Issue 4, 1945, pp. 519-20

"Any man who is only an economist is unlikely to be a good one."

- F. A. Hayek, 1962, lecture, The Times, 9 May 1985

"Please find me a one-armed economist so we will not always hear 'on the other hand ...'"

- Herbert Hoover

"The theory of economics does not furnish a body of settled conclusions immediately applicable to policy. It is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions."

- John Maynard Keynes

"In the long run we are all dead"

 - John Maynard Keynes, 1923, Tract on Monetary Reform

"Now, we are all Keynesians."

 - Richard Nixon

"If all economist were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion."

- George Bernard Shaw

"No society that values order above all else will be creative, but without some degree of order, creativity disappears."

 - Lester Thurow, 1999, Building Wealth

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest."

 - Adam Smith, 1776, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. I, Book I, Chapter II

"He ... neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it ... he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention."

 - Adam Smith, 1776,  An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol. I, Book IV, Chapter II

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own."

 - Harry S. Truman, April 6, 1958, The Observer

Awards in economics

I. Nobel prize

In 1968, the Bank of Sweden (Sveriges Riksbank) instituted the "Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel" in time for the bank's tercentenary celebrations.

Year

Nobel Laureate(s)

Contribution(s)

Institution(s)

2005 Robert J. Aumann, Thomas C. Schelling for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Maryland
2004 Finn E. Kydland, Edward C. Prescott The time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles Carnegie-Mellon, Arizona State
2003 Robert F. Engle, Clive W. J. Granger Methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH) and with common trends (cointegration) New York University, UC San Diego
2002 Daniel Kahneman, Vernon L. Smith Integrated psychological research into economic science, laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis Princeton, George Mason University

2001

George A. Akerlof, A. Michael Spence, Joseph E. Stiglitz

Markets with asymmetric information

Berkeley, Stanford, Columbia

2000

James J. Heckman, Daniel L. McFadden

Selective samples, discrete choice

Chicago, Berkeley

1999

Robert A. Mundell

Monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes, optimum currency areas

Columbia

1998

Amartya Sen

Welfare economics

Trinity College (UK)

1997

Robert C. Merton, Myron S. Scholes

Derivatives valuation

Harvard, Long-Term Capital Management

1996

James A. Mirrlees, William Vickrey

Incentives under asymmetric information

Cambridge (UK), Columbia

1995

Robert E. Lucas Jr.

Hypothesis of rational expectations

Chicago

1994

John C. Harsanyi, John F. Nash Jr., Reinhard Selten

Equilibria in non-cooperative games

Berkeley, Princeton, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität (Germany)

1993

Robert W. Fogel, Douglass C. North

Economic theory and quantitative methods in economic and institutional change

Chicago, Washington University

1992

Gary S. Becker

Microeconomic analysis of human behaviour and interaction, including nonmarket behaviour

Chicago

1991

Ronald H. Coase

Significance of transaction costs and property rights for institutional structure and functioning of the economy

Chicago

1990

Harry M. Markowitz, Merton H. Miller, William F. Sharpe

Financial economics

City University of New York, Chicago, Stanford

1989

Trygve Haavelmo

Probability theory foundations of econometrics, simultaneous economic structures

University of Oslo (Norway)

1988

Maurice Allais

Markets and efficient utilization of resources

École Nationale Supérieur des Mines de Paris (France)

1987

Robert M. Solow

Economic growth

MIT

1986

James M. Buchanan Jr.

Contractual and constitutional bases for theory of economic and political decision-making

Center for Study of Public Choice

1985

Franco Modigliani

Saving, financial markets

MIT

1984

Richard Stone

Systems of national accounts

Cambridge (UK)

1983

Gerard Debreu

New analytical methods of economic theory, reformulation of general equilibrium

Berkeley

1982

George J. Stigler

Industrial structures, functioning of markets, causes and effects of public regulation

Chicago

1981

James Tobin

Financial markets, and their relations to expenditure decisions, employment, production and prices

Yale

1980

Lawrence R. Klein

Econometric models, and its application to analysis of economic fluctuations and policies

Pennsylvania

1979

Theodore W. Schultz, Sir Arthur Lewis

Economic development, particularly problems of developing countries

Chicago, Princeton

1978

Herbert A. Simon

Decision-making process within economic organizations

Carnegie-Mellon

1977

Bertil Ohlin, James E. Meade

International trade, international capital movements

Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden), Cambridge (UK)

1976

Milton Friedman

Consumption analysis, Monetary history and theory, complexity of stabilization policy

Chicago

1975

Leonid Vitaliyevich Kantorovich, Tjalling C. Koopmans

Optimum allocation of resources

Academy of Sciences (USSR), Yale

1974

Gunnar Myrdal, Friedrich August von Hayek

Money and economic fluctuations, interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena

Stockholm University (Sweden), University of London (UK)

1973

Wassily Leontief

Input-output method, and its application to economic problems

Harvard

1972

John R. Hicks, Kenneth J. Arrow

General economic equilibrium, welfare theory

All Souls College (UK), Harvard

1971

Simon Kuznets

Empirical interpretation of economic growth, which leads to understanding of economic and social structure and process of development

Harvard

1970

Paul A. Samuelson

Static and dynamic economic theory, analysis in economic science

MIT

1969

Ragnar Frisch, Jan Tinbergen

Dynamic models for analysis of economic processes

Oslo University (Norway), Netherlands School of Economics (Netherlands)

 

II. John Bates Clark medal

Instituted in 1947 by the American Economic Association and awarded every second year to a promising young economist, particularly "to that American economist under the age of forty who is adjudged to have made a significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge".

Year

Winner

Contribution(s)

Institution

2005 Daron Acemoglu The role of institutions in development and in political economy MIT
2003 Steven Levitt Natural experiments in economics Chicago

2001

Matthew Rabin

Economic analysis based on psychological evidence

Berkeley

1999

Andrei Shleifer

Securities markets, government role in regulating markets and fostering economic growth

Harvard

1997

Kevin M. Murphy

Causes of growing income inequality in the U.S. between white-collar and blue-collar workers

Chicago

1995

David Card

Major issues related to the labor market and public policy

Princeton

1993

Lawrence H. Summers

Restored the primacy of actual economies over abstract models

Harvard

1991

Paul R. Krugman

Applied theory of industrial organization in international trade, theory of currency crises and exchange rate changes

MIT

1989

David M. Kreps

1987

Sanford J. Grossman

1985

Jerry A. Hausman

1983

James J. Heckman

1981

A. Michael Spence

1979

Joseph E. Stiglitz

1977

Martin S. Feldstein

1975

Daniel McFadden

1973

Franklin M. Fisher

1971

Dale W. Jorgensen

1969

Marc Leon Nerlove

1967

Gary S. Becker

1965

Zvi Griliches

1963

Hendrik S. Houthakker

1961

Robert M. Solow

1959

Lawrence R. Klein

1957

Kenneth J. Arrow

1955

James Tobin

1951

Milton Friedman

1949

Kenneth E. Boulding

1947

Paul A. Samuelson

 

  My economics articles

Economic Growth

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Long-Run Economic Growth (October 2000)

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Determinants of Economic Growth: U.S., Japan, China, Singapore, and Indonesia (March 2002)

Entrepreneurship

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Social Organization, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Growth (December 2000)

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Journal Review: Entrepreneurial Discovery and the Competitive Market Process: An Austrian Approach (March 2002)

Industrial Organization

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Economics of the "New Economy" (September 2002)

Labor Economics

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The Effect of Assimilation on the Earnings of South Hayward Immigrants (June 2002)

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Cost-Benefit Analysis of College Education in the United States (August 2002)

Monetary Theory

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Journal Review: Money Demand and the Effects of Fiscal Policies (October 2000)

Property Rights

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Property Rights (March 2001)

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Property Rights in the Fishery Case (June 2002)

Public Finance

bulletFederal Head Start Program: Impact Analysis (May 2001)
bulletBuilding Cases for Lower Capital Gains Taxes (May 2001)

 

History of economic thought

Free-market philosophy and Its Roots in Ancient China (by Michael Vatikiotis, Far Eastern Economic Review, 10 June 1999)

The basic notions of a free-market economy were derived with the help of observations made in China by Jesuit missionaries in the mid-18th century. The source of these ideas was the Tao Te Ching, the basic text of Taoism. The French translated the concept of wu wei into laissez-faire. Francois Quesnay first coined the term "laissez-faire" in 1758 which then inspired Adam Smith with his "Wealth of Nations".

Confucianism in the Era of Globalization (by Mary Kwang, Straits Times, 2002)

Find out if Confucius' teachings are compatible with modern business climate in globalization era. Doctrine of the Mean, or the middle road, in decision making where the best choice is the one between what are seen as unworkable extremes. Also morals and values, honesty and sincerity, and patriarchy.

Lecture Review: Chinese Economic Thought Before Adam Smith (lecture by Zagros Sadjadi, review by William Dwyer)

Identify three main schools of thought: the Legalists, the Taoists, and the Confucians. The Legalists believed in maximal power to the state. The Taoists favors virtually no state interference in economy. The Confucians were middle of -the-roaders on this issue.

The Tao of Adam Smith (by James A Dorn, Asian Wall Street Journal, 18 August, 2001)

Learn "market Taoism" that was thought out 2000 years before Adam Smith. The principle of wu-wei (nonaction) where rulers rule best when they rule least; that is when they take "no unnatural action."

The Tao of Laissez-Faire (by Ken McCormick, Eastern Economic Journal, Volume 25, Issue 3, 01 July 1999)

Those interested in a theoretical defense of laissez-faire can add the arguments of Lao Tzu and Chuang Tzu to those of people like Smith and Hayek. Taoism is a tradition which is different from Classical Liberalism, but there is complete agreement on the very important subject of the propriety of a policy of laissez-faire. One can speculate that the startling success of economic liberalization in the People's Republic of China might in part be explained by the fact that the idea of free markets is embedded in the culture.

 

Microeconomics

List of microeconomics concepts in teaching sequential order (by Effendy Juraimin, 2003)

My thought of economics as intermediary science in business school displayed as a diagram (by Effendy Juraimin, May 26, 2003)

The Economics of Love and Marriage (by David D. Friedman, Price Theory: An Intermediate Text, chapter 21, 1990)

What and why is marriage? Looking at marriage as a two-person firm. Then understanding the existence of transaction costs, specialization, the costs of bilateral monopoly, and contract enforcement problems as reasons for marriage.

 

Macroeconomics

List of macroeconomics concepts in teaching sequential order (by Effendy Juraimin, 2003)

Economic freedom of the world (The Fraser Institute)

Economic freedom is the extent to which one can pursue economic activity without interference from government. Economic freedom is built upon personal choice, voluntary exchange, the right to keep what you earn, and the security of your property rights. Under the leadership of Michael Walker and Milton Friedman, the Fraser Institute published The annual Economic Freedom of the World Report that ranks countries on their level of economic freedom.

Religion and Political Economy in an International Panel (by Robert J. Barro and Rachel M. McCleary, working paper, May 2, 2002)

Economic and political developments affect religiosity, and the extent of religious participation and beliefs influence economic performance and political institutions. Church attendance and religious beliefs are positively related to education and negatively related to urbanization. Attendance also declines with higher life expectancy and lower fertility. Economic growth responds positively to the extent of some religious beliefs ("believing") but negatively to church attendance ("belonging").

 

Economy of the United States

Economic Statistics Briefing Room (White House)

Easy access to the most current federal economic indicators. All of the information are produced and maintained by the statistical units of those agencies.

U.S. Economic Calendar (Yahoo! Finance)

Economic indicators for current week.

 

Economies of the Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

Economic report and indicators of APEC members: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam. Also available free publications, tariff database, project database, labor market information, member action plans.

Indonesian Economic Recovery Process and The Role of Government (by Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 13, Issue 5 , September-October 2002, Pages 577-596)

Sustainability of economic recovery process in Indonesia depends on two important programs, stability in the macroeconomic environment, and the implementation of a sound and credible restructuring of corporate debts along with strengthening of the banking institution. Weak legal and judicial systems combined with the new political competition will, at least in the short run, result in more policy distortions, with the burden of cost shouldered by public interest.

Corruption Perceptions Index 2002 (Transparency International)

Transparency International (TI) , the world's leading non-governmental organization fighting corruption, releases their latest Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2002. The CPI reflects the perceptions of the degree of corruption as seen by business people, academics and risk analysts, and ranges between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt). It ranks 102 countries. Seventy countries - including many of the world's most povertyy-stricken - score less than 5 out of a clean score of 10.

Also: TI's Global Corruption Barometer 2003 where citizen of 44 countries were asked: "If you had a magic wand and you could eliminate corruption from one of the following institutions, what would your first choice be?"

Economic Growth Research (The World Bank Group)

This website features published articles and working papers, with the associated data sets, about globalization, poverty, corruption, human capital, social capital, political institutions. Also: news, reports & publications, and data & statistics of East Asia & Pacific countries.

Growth Competitiveness Index 2005 (by World Economic Forum, Geneva)

The study assigned scores to nations by looking at factors like government economic policy, the strength of local institutions and the degree to which technology has been used to bolster growth.

World Competitiveness Rankings 2003 (by IMD business school of Lausanne, Switzerland)

The rankings "analyze and rank the ability of nations to create and maintain an environment that sustains the competitiveness of enterprises". Criteria used to measure competitiveness factors are categorized into: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency, and infrastructure.

 

  Economics links

Anomalies of economic behavior

Prof. Richard Thaler (University of Chicago) compiled a list of paradoxes and anomalies that challenges mainstream economics' rational behavior assumption. Examples of such anomalies are why the winners at auctions are often the real losers - they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse" - why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, "the endowment effect", and "the flypaper effect".

Armchair Economics

Prof. Bryan Caplan (George Mason University) employed "economics to common sense in order to understand the world". He posts article regarding "theory of fraud, "the economics of insanity", etc.

How the Dismal Science Got Its Name?

Economics is called the dismal science. But why? David M. Levy shows that it came from Thomas Carlyle’s 1849 “Occasional Discourse on the Negro Question,” in which Carlyle attacked classical liberal economists for their support of black emancipation.

Economics of religion

This scientific study of religion seeks to explain religious behavior from an economic (or "rational choice") perspective. The economic approach rests upon the fundamental assumptions of economic analysis: maximizing behavior, stable preferences, and market equilibrium.

Middle of Nowhere Economics Archive (by Brad Cox)

Find articles about internet economics, electronic property, JapanBionomics, Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" and "The Road to Serfdom"  (condensed and cartoon versions)

Schools of thought in economics

Learn the history of economic thoughts. What are they? Who belongs to what?

Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

A well organized site of Economics Research Network (ERN) that is dedicated to increasing communication among economics scholars, practitioners, and policymakers throughout the world.

"You have Two Cows" Jokes

How do you explain to your kids differences between Capitalism, Communism, and Enron? What about Arthur Andersen and Other Capitalism?

Working Papers in Economics (WoPEc)

is a service for finding and downloading the latest research results in economics. It contains over 50,000 documents in electronic format.

 

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Business

Quotes in business

I. Quotes in forecasting blunder

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming."

- Lee DeForest, 1926,  American inventor and pioneer in radio and television

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."

- Charles H. Duell, 1899, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents

"64K ought to be enough for anybody."

- Bill Gates, 1981.

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."

- Popular Mechanics, 1949, forecasting the relentless march of science

"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom."

- Robert Milikan, 1923, Nobel prize winner in physics

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

- Ken Olson, 1977, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.

"The Wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"

- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"

- Harry M. Warner, 1927, Warner Brothers

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

- Thomas Watson, 1943, Chairman of IBM

II. Quotes in investment

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."

- Benjamin Graham, 1934, "Security Analysis: Principles and Techniques"

Forecasting

Click here to learn data types, data pattern, forecasting models, and regression analysis.

Investment

Learn the principles of "value-oriented investment", i.e. the use of fundamentals in guiding the valuation of securities, from the "Dean of Wall Street" and the mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham.

 

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Technology

Quotes in technology

"Doubling of transistor density on a manufactured die every year."

- Original definition of Moore's Law, Gordon Moore (1965), Intel co-founder

 "Historically, the price of computing power falls by half every 18 months."

- Current definition of Moore's Law, Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder, expects the Law to hold for at least another two decades

"The cost of computing has dropped exponentially, but the cost of thinking is what it always was."

- Zvi Griliches (1960), "Measuring Inputs in Agriculture: A Critical Survey." Journal of Farm Economics. 42:5. pp.1411-33.

"A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."

- Herbert Simon, Nobel laureate in economics (1978) for decision-making process within economic organizations.

"We can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics."

- Solow paradox, Robert M. Solow, 1987, Nobel laureate in economics (1987) for the theory of economic growth

"Our philosophy is Kaizan (continuous self-improvement), and machines cannot Kaizan."

- Toyota officials in Kentucky plant (1998), explained their aversion to automation and replacing humans with robots

"a lot of speed you can't really use ...  a speedier chip won't make you type faster or think faster."

- Stephen Wildstrom (1999), "Pentium III: Enough Already?" Business Week, March 22, p. 23.

"Technology changes. Economic laws do not."

- Hal R. Varian and Carl Shapiro (1998), UC Berkeley economists, "Information Rules".

Technology history

Are we in the third industrial revolution with personal computer, internet, and biotech?

What are the the great inventions in the 20th century?

Technology comic

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History

Quotes in history

"Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men"

- Lord Acton, letter, 3 April 1887, to Bishop Mandell Creighton (published in The Life and Letters of Mandell Creighton, 1904)

"That's one small step for (a) man, one giant leap for mankind."

- Neil Armstrong, July 20, 1969, upon setting foot on the moon

"Veni, vidi, vici. [I came, I saw, I conquered]"

- Julius Caesar, from Suetonius, Lives of the Caesars

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried."

- Winston Churchill

"Our country! In her intercourse with foreign nations may she always be right, but our country right or wrong."

- Stephen Decatur, American naval commander, 1815, famous toast at a banquet given in his honor

"It does not matter if a cat is black or white so long as it catches the mouse."

- Deng Xiaoping, meaning that it no longer matters if an economic policy is capitalist or socialist as long as it results in economic growth

"Old soldiers never die; they just fade away."

- Douglas MacArthur, April 19, 1951, farewell speech to congress

"Taxation without representation is tyranny!"

- James Otis, 1761, reflected resentment of American colonists being taxed by British Parliment which they had no elected representatives.

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1933, Inaugural Address

"Our country, right or wrong! When right to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right!"

- Carl Schurz, 1872, German-born civil war general and senator

World history

Chronology of world history

Including Regional and Cross-Cultural Chronologies

History of Iraq

From the cradle of civilization to the Gulf War II. View the best Iraq map and with profiles.

 

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Miscellaneous

Earthquake

Bay area recent earthquake map

real time update of seismic activity

Bay area earthquake hazard maps

shows hazard level by city and scenario

Bay area earthquake probability map

USGS and other scientists conclude that there is a 70% probability of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake striking bay area before 2030

Cuisine

The Food of Bali

Recipes of Bali cuisine in the following categories: basic recipes, soups, satay, rice, vegetables, meats, poultry, seafood, desserts and cakes, and spices.

IndonesianCuisine.com

searchable database of all Indonesian restaurants in the world.

Indonesian/Malaysian/Singaporean restaurants in Bay Area

Comprehensive list (sorted by name) of all Indonesian/Malaysian/Singaporean restaurants in Bay Area. Updated: 8/27/2003

Jakarta Indonesian Cooking

few selected secret recipes of traditional Indonesian food.

Merry's Kitchen of Indonesian Kitchen

contains over 400 authentic favorite Indonesian recipes and some of them have pictures.

 

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