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Camelids as a Commercial Venture

This section of the Camelid Country site is written with a single, important, assumption in mind. The assumption? That you are looking at camelids as a commercial venture in western Canada.

The western Canadian focus does not mean that this page is useless to people outside western Canada. It simply means that you will need to make some changes to the commercial herd models to reflect your local conditions. This means, usually, that to use the model you will need to substitute local prices--but do keep in mind that there may be other sources of revenue available to you, as well as costs, that are not reflected in these models.

Even the western Canadian owner may wish to keep this in mind. You, as a western Canadian owner, may be aware of some revenue and cost factors of which I've never heard.

Now there are many reasons why you may wish to take a commercial interest in camelids. You may be an established farmer or rancher looking to expand your operations to other livestock. You may be a new farmer or rancher just starting out. You may be an looking at camelids as a project to help finance your retirement.

Whatever your reason, you are getting into camelids for one purpose, and one purpose alone--to make money.

With that in mind, I present three models of a commercial herd. In the first model, your objective is to grow a bigger herd, and to that end you do not sell any animals. The second model assumes you sell most of your camelids' offspring to generate a cash flow. The third assumes a mixture of the two approaches--you keep some animals for herd growth and sell some for income. Underlying these models are some assumptions, and these are outlined after I present the models.

The Commercial Herd Models

Model 1 - The Herd Growth Model

In this model, we start with a two pairs of llamas for breeding. All offspring are kept and used to grow the herd.

Size of Herd (by Year)
Year	Start of Year			Crias Born During Year			End of Year
	Herd Size						Herd Size			Bred Females
	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total
1	2	2	4	0	0	0	2	2	4	2
2	2	2	4	1	1	2	3	3	6	2
3	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
4	4	4	8	1	1	2	5	5	10	3
5	5	5	10	1	2	3	6	7	13	4
6	6	7	13	2	2	4	8	9	17	5
7	8	9	17	3	2	5	11	11	22	7
8	11	11	22	3	4	7	14	15	29	9
9	14	15	29	5	4	9	19	19	38	11
10	19	19	38	5	6	11	24	25	49	15
11	24	25	49	8	7	15	32	32	64	19

Model 2 - The Herd Income Model

In this model, we start with two pairs of llamas for breeding. All yearling offspring are sold at year end to generate income.

Size of Herd (by Year)
Year	Start of Year			Crias Born During Year			End of Year
	Herd Size						Herd Size			Bred Females
	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total
1	2	2	4	0	0	0	2	2	4	2
2	2	2	4	1	1	2	3	3	6	2
3	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
4	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
5	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
6	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
7	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
8	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
9	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
10	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
11	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2

Model 3 - The Mixed Model

In this model, we start with two pairs of llamas for breeding. All female offspring are kept to grow the herd. The yearling males are sold as geldings at the end of the year to generate inclome.

Size of Herd (by Year)
Year	Start of Year			Crias Born During Year			End of Year
	Herd Size						Herd Size			Bred Females
	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total
1	2	2	4	0	0	0	2	2	4	2
2	2	2	4	1	1	2	3	3	6	2
3	3	3	6	1	1	2	4	4	8	2
4	3	4	7	1	1	2	4	5	9	3
5	3	5	8	1	2	3	4	7	11	4
6	3	7	10	2	2	4	5	9	14	5
7	4	9	13	3	2	5	7	11	18	7
8	6	11	17	3	4	7	9	15	24	9
9	6	15	21	5	4	9	11	19	30	11
10	8	19	27	5	6	11	13	25	38	15
11	8	25	33	8	7	15	16	32	48	19

The Assumptions Underlying the Commercial Herd Models

Several assumptions are reflected in the table above.

1. The camelid used in the model.

   The model uses llamas as the animal of choice. The vast majority of camelids on western Canadian farms are llamas, though there are some alpacas as well. If you are planning to own another camelid, bactrian camels for example, you will need to modify the model to reflect this choice.

2. Prices - General Factors

   The model assumes the prices of llamas are constant over a ten year period. This is not likely to happen. You can expect the prices of llamas to vary from year to year.

   I have used prices of animals available on the Alberta market in 1998. Prices may be different in other parts of the world. When you set up your own table, you should research the prices of animals available in your market.

   I have assumed that males will normally be sold as geldings. If males are stud quality males and sold to breeders as studs, the price may be higher.

3. Prices - Factors Affecting Male Llamas Only

   Good males with solid blood lines may be sold as stud quality males. Such animals have usually been shown, and have often won ribbons at a local show. This accounts for less than 5% of all males.

   Other males will normally be sold as geldings.

   Blood lines are an important consideration when purchaing males. While the best blood lines are normally desirable, if many of your llamas are offspring of a specific top stud male, you may wish to consider another male due to inbreeding.

4. Prices - Factors Affecting Female Llamas Only

   A number of factors affect the price of a female llama: pregnancy, contractual re-breeding, cria at side, and animal quality. The most expensive females will come pregnant, with a nursing cria at side, and with a clause in the sales contract permitting a rebreeding--in effect you are buying three animals with a contract for a fourth if the unborn one miscarries or does not meet some other standard of quality.

5. Reproduction

   The model assumes an even 50-50 split between male and female crias. Statistically, this is what should happen over the long term, and in larger herds. In a small herd, you may find this skewed for a number of years. For example, if you start with a single pair of llamas, you may find that you get nothing but males over the first several years.

   For the Herd Growth Model, there are years where the number of crias is odd. In years 5, 8, and 10, the model assumes the odd cria is female, and in years 7, 9, and 11 the odd cria is male.

   The model also assumes that all crias are carried to full term. While we don't like to think of this possibility, it is possible for a female llama to miscarry.

   Female llamas connot be bred until they are 18 - 24 months of age. For the purpose of these models, the assumption is that the female is not bred until she is a full two years old.

6. Herd Losses

   The model assumes that no llamas are lost. It is possible to lose a llama to sickness or old age. Depending on the layout of your farm, it is not impossible to lose a llama to predators or other unfortunate circumstances.

7. Pregnancy of Purchased Females

   The models assume that you purchase unbred females at the beginning of year 1. If you purchase pregnant females, you get a one year head start and begin in year 2 of the models.

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Page last updated April 19, 1999.
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Copyright © 1998-1999 John Fleming
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