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Pakistan and Politics
The site consists of comments on Pakistans current political scene. It will highlight the controversies, the scandals, the political leaders and happenings vis a vis the countries present day politics.
THE LATEST COMMENTS ARE ON THIS PAGE.AFTER THIS TRY PAGES 17 , 16 ,15 and 14. THE OTHER PAGES CONTAIN COMMENTS ON EVENTS SINCE MAY 1997.
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Pakistan and Politics
by ikram ul haq
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SC FRIGHTENED AND PHC AGGRESSIVE
MANSEHRA, FAISALABAD AND MURREE RIOTS
WHEN WILL PAKISTAN GO NUCLEAR
INDIAS NUCLEAR AGENDA, MURREE, MURDERS, GHOST SCHOOLS, HIGH COURTS
THE NEW ENGLISH READER , THE MURREE RIOTS AND CHOKING THE BHUTTO'S
FM CONTROVERSY AND JAILING OPPONENTS
SON OF THE DICTATOR
FOREIGN MINISTER, KRL, IPP'S, JAVED BURKI, BUDGET DEFICIT, WAPDA, PTV WORLD
FOREIGN MINISTER RESIGNS, LOCAL BODIES, PANCHAYATS, CJ, NEW SINDH CJ
- The Punjab High Court which still has some guts ordered on the complainst of an ordinary citizen that Wapda only pay Rs1.50 instead of Rs 5.40 per unit to Hubco for the purchase of electricity. No funds or assets canbe transferred abroad until a final settlement on the question of overpayments.
- The Supreme Court on the other hand backed out of even rapping the govt onits knuckles in a 6-1 judgement declaring the 14t amendment legal 14th amendment restricts several fundamental rights and gives the leader of a party the right to throw a dissident out of the assembly.However the SC declared that the effect of the 14th would be restricted to the parlimentary building and legislators have some rights to express their views but are not allowed to vote against their party. However dissidence can be expressed outside the parliament.The amendment has put to sleep any hopes of an inparty revolt.The only hope left to dissidents is the replacement of their party leader.Only Justice Mamoon Qazi dissented.
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Riots have taken place in two rural and one industrial city in the north of the country. The murree riots were mentioned in earlier comments. In the past few days riots broke out in Mansehra and Shinkiari when a young boy was killed in police custody. The area is now under army control and the police officers in the area have been removed. Apart from that rather bizzarre riots took place in Faisalabad when the local bishop killed himeself to protest a blasphemy sentence. Under pakistani law anyone can be sentenced to death for blaspheming the prophet. Ayub Masih who was sentenced to death by a lower court has now appealed to the Punjab Hugh Court.
The riots demonstrate the extremely fragile nature of the countries system where there are no systems which can be totally trusted. It is also apparent that the people are getting extremely frustrated by an unsympathetic premier aswell as higher prices and a lack of job opportunities. The tensions caused by current politics need only some minor incident to spark a breakdown of normalcy. However it is also interesting to note that all areas are reacting to local problems with no other area even concerned.
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Continuing to defy world opinion India went ahead and conducted two further nuclear battlefield weapon oriented tests. In response the USA stung by the failure of its intelligence organizations announced wide ranging economic sanctions.It is now apparent that the indian nuclear tests are weapon oriented and offensive in nature with the indian premier threatening to arm their missiles with nuclear warheads. It is also apparent that the nuclear tests were approved by its previous premier Inderjit Gujral. The focus has now shifted to whether pakistan will test its own nuclear device or not and if so when and where. There is a general consensus in pakistan that a nuclear test should be conducted without further delay. Whether pakistan has the required capability is slightly questionable. There have been reports that pakistan has been preparing a test site somewhere in balochistan or northern punjab. Whether pakistan has a device ready for testing is questionable. One of Pakistans nuclear scientist has stated that given govt approval the test could be conducted within days. However it seems that pakistans preperations are not complete and Janes the defence journal opines that pakistans test will be conducted at the end of June. However some rumours suggest that the test might come in the coming few days. Pakistan has to think whether it can afford economic sanctions as its economy is totally based on foreign loans. The decision will probably be made today.
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- India has conducted three tests of atomic and hydrogen nuclear bombs at Pokhran on the Pakistan border. This site had been lying dormant since Indias first nuclear test in 1974. India which had continued collecting bomb making material and developing bombs and delivery systems had avoided a test because of the stiff sanctions it had to face in 1974. However the USA deliberately started to turn a blind eye towards Indias nuclear development demonstrated by the provision of a top level Cray, continued provision of educational, research and training facilities as well as verbal encouragement and understanding of Indias positions on various matters. Such encouragement was only recently evident when Bill Richardson visited India. The Indians first tested an ICBM and have now conducted not one but three nuclear tests in total disregard for the worlds views. The USA with its vast array of sattelites was obviously aware of the renewed activity at Pokhran which news was also printed in the press. So one wonders why the USA did not try to stop India or was the nuclear test carried out in cooperation with the USA. The USA and European countries are known to have a soft spot for India. The current tests are another manifestation of Indian intentions to be considered at par with the worlds power brokers. Obviously if the world reacts with its usual slackness other countries will also be conducting such tests in the near future.
- In Pakistan things are happening. The govt has killed a PPP leader and his son in karachi and the son of a PPP supported local bodies candidate while in police custody in Faisalabad. There have been several other murders in which the ruling party has been openly involved.
- Shabaz Sharif the punjab chief minister has backed off and decided not to collect a stiff toll tax on vehicles entering and leaving Murree. The area had seen riots for more than a week . The punjab govts views were that the toll was justified as the nawaz-shabaz govts had done a lot of work in the Murree area. The whole episode shows the slow plodding nature of Shahbaz Sharif.
- According to the Punjab govt they have unearthed around 4000 ghost schools which had no students but only teachers and in some cases no buildings as well. The punjab govt is using the Pakistan Army to check its schools as its beaurocracy is not efficient and workoriented. The sharif brothers have ruled the punjab for the last 21 years barring two stints by other muslim leaguers.
- While the Sind High Court only bothers Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari the Punjab High Court despite being stuffed with PMLn loyalists is starting to bother the PMLn govts too. They have even banned HUBCO from transferring funds abroad. In the last few weeks they have snubbed Shabaz Sharif twice.
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- A new english reader is being prepared for the uneducated political masses by the nawaz sharif govt in which A= Asif, B=Benazir, C= Corruption, D=Daewoo, E=Ehtesab,I= IPP's, K=Kalabagh etc.
- A protest has been taking place in the unlikely place of Murree more reknown for its summer holidays, illegal romantic trysts and snowfalls. Violent riots and blockades have cut off the hillspot from the rest of the country for the last nine days. It started after the Punjab govt levied a minor toll on vehicles entering and leaving Murree. The bussiness community and transporters who are the richest people in the country immediately started a protest which included demonstrations, a blockade of all traffic to Murree, burning of govt buildings and toll booths. Pakistans trader and industrial community is reknown for evading taxes. The riots have left the small town literally empty and people in dire need of foodstuffs such as wheat flour a basic staple. The protests are being organized by a retired military Brigadier Taj who was arrested and realeased on bail because of a heart ailment.
- As was expected the Punjab High Court has again allowed the holding of local polls overturning a decision by one of its benches saying that electoral rolls should be updated annually which exercise has never been carried out.
- Nawaz Sharif it seems is dead set against the Kalabagh Dam as his pinch hitter Chaudhry Nisar apparently was one of the few against the kalabagh dam when an impromptu poll was held in the cabinet. However a committee comprising the four chief ministers and Choudhry Nisar has been formed to thresh out the issue which has been complicated by political wranglings.
- Nawaz Sharif it seems is also personalizing the IPP issue which the PMLn regards as a way to subdue the PPP whose supporters they say have gotten most of the lucrative power station contracts. He obviously forgets that it was his PMLn which prepared the policy in the first place. However the major problem seems tobe the HUBCO and KAPCO deals which have been surprisingly granted excessive rates.
- There is speculation that Nawaz might go for the arrest of Benazir Bhutto as a way to stem unrest amongst his party who have begun to accuse him of running a govt of the rich for the rich and by the rich.
- Nawaz in what is seen as a step to help the Punjab Sugar industry mostly owned by him and Chaudhry Shujaat has stopped the operation of a group of seven sugar mills in Sind on the excuse that they are owned by Asif Zardari. It was well know that Nawaz had opposed the setting up of these sugar mills in Sind and he is now using his leverage to stop their production so that prices of sugar can rise and benefit him and his cronies. Prices of sugar have fallen because of sugar imports and a bumper crop of sugarcane. The govt is now trying to export sugar in a similar attempt to raise prices.
- In another newspaper report the Ehtesab Bureau has asked traders not to have any dealings with Benazir and Asif in order to choke their bussiness earnings.
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The FM controversy has taken a new turn with Gohar being accused of attempting a Bhutto. Zulfikar Bhutto was foreign minister in gohars father's cabinet when he resigned after the Tashkent accords with India accusing ayub of foulplay and went on to start pakistans only successful peoples movement. While gohar may have reason to embarrass Nawaz he obviously does not have the personality to start a movement. Anyway the new FM might be Nawaz himself with some suggesting that he will bring in a new youthful foreign minister. Foreign ministers become liabilities when they start building their own castles. Nawaz has tended to take over everything which has even the slightest possibility of providing a future challenger some exposure. There are rumours afoot that three ministers might be dropped from the cabinet in the next reshuffle for minting money( psuedonym for corruption)
The govt has belatedly arrested 11 PPP leaders for organizing a demonstration against govt victimisation on April 20th. The police had literally beaten some of the demonstrators to apulp. And just in passing Sheikh Rashid a PMLn minister is still after the police officers who had him arrested for having unlicensed weapons.
The govt has again started sending its favourites for foreign medical treatment. Now people working in the private sector too can benefit from such govt largesse. The PPP govt had been pilloried for sending its near and dear ones for foreign medical treatments and it had been banned by the caretaker govt as a luxury as everyone could not benefit from such extravagance.
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Bad days are probably in store for Gohar Ayub. First he committed the cardinal sin of asking for another ministry . Than he resigned. And than he got reappointed at least temporarily. It is now said that he is destined for one of the low level ministries. It seems that some are already working against the appointment of Sartaj Aziz as the next FM. They argue that Chaudhry Nisar would be a better choice. There are are also suggestions that the Finance ministry might see winds of change with Hafiz Pasha becoming advisor extraordinaire with Nawaz taking over the Finance ministry(ala Benazir and VA Jaffery), somebody called Mohsin Saeed (from IMF) becoming Governor State Bank, An economic council of advisors is also being mooted with Shaukat Aziz(CitiBank)/ Mahbubul Haq onit, Khawaja Asif being made minister of state for finance??, Haleem Siddiqui being dropped for Ejaz Shafi and last but not least Akmal Hussein is being tipped as Deputy Chairman Planning Commision. Things must be really bad if so many things are going to happen??
Anyway as for Gohar Ayub who is also a failed industrialist yesterday saw his wool and blanket factory auctioned off for Rs 8.7 million by a court appointed liquidator to recover debts. Apart from that two other cases have surfaced against the Ayub family. In one( which is really funny )it was revealed that Ayub Khan in 1958 exhanged with the Pakistan Army 8 canals of land in rawalpindi with 40 acres in Abottabad and Haripur. While the Ayub family took over the 40 acres they forgot to hand over the 8 canals. It is imposiible for me to equate 8 canals and 40 acres. In another case gohars son in law sold a property to a lady for 1.8 million, took the money than refused to hand over the property. The same son in law who was a grade 18 officer in the accounts group was appointed illegally to a grade 19/20 post in the FIA by the Nawaz govt. during both its tenures. Such are the influences of sons and sons in laws of dictators.
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- The resignation /reassignment request of Gohar Ayub has not been accepted and he has been told to continue until the primeminister has time to think about what to do. The person most likely to be appointed FM is Sartaj Aziz who is a clear failure as Finance Minister. Since the annual ministerial appraisal process has apparently pointed to severe shortcomings in nearly all ministers and with many wanting to be reassigned the reshuffle which nearly took place has been postponed. The other FM hopefuls are Siddik Kanju and Mushahid Hussain. Mushahid despite being Information minister is considered to be the person guiding nawaz sharif in most of his foreign and internal policies . However Mushahid is not too likeable as far as the PMLn is concerned. In a press report already denied Mushahid has already attempted to become FM under the PPP but was rejected and thus ended up in the PMLn on the rebound from where he is continuing to forment trouble for the PPP leaders.
- In a major change of heart the NWFP govt has decided not to oppose the Kalabagh Dam in the spirit of qurbani. The prime minister on the other hand is still uncertain and undecided. The countries main dam the Tarbela is said tobe silting up faster than anticipated and irrigation requirements apparently might not equal needs in the not to distant future. Given the option of cheaper electricity generation as a byproduct even opponents are now regarding the kalabagh as almost inevitable. Options to increase Tarbelas life are also under consideration in the shape of several tunnels on the left bank.
- According to press reports about 10 IPP's have agreed to reduce rates to between 4.68-4.72 cents per kwh. However others state that under present conditions rates can only be reduced upto 20%. Some IPP's on the other hand are asking for further concessions. They would like to import their own furnace oil tax free which would bring them savings of $74 per ton of furnace oil. They would also like the govt to purchase 85% of their product instead of the present 60%. and they also want donors to relax debt repayments. The concessions some argue could bring rates to around 3 cents.
- The USA has placed a two year ban on Khan Research Labs and the North Korean Changgwang Sinyong Corporation for developing missiles in contravention of MTCR. The sanctions will cause the organizations tobe denied contact and access to all USA firms.
- Sartaj Aziz says that the budget deficit for 1997-98 will now be 5.4%(Rs 148 billion) due to less than expected revenue growth caused by a slow economy and reduction in imports and slow trade.
- According to another press report Sindhis are being denied appointments to all major positions especially in the provincial beaurocracy.The punjab based PMLn is said tobe pro MQM and anti Sindhi.
- Javed Burki the federal secretary for Water and Power is to finally retire May8 after several extensions in service. A pro privatization, influential beaurocrat loved by politicians, govts and donors is apparently going tobe reappointed to oversee the corporisation and privatisation of WAPDA. Reports suggest that he will head the two year mandate organisation PEPCO(Private Electricity Power Company). Pepco will unbundle Wapda into 21 units which will be privatized and leave WAPDA to deal with hydel development and hydel generation deptts. The 21 units will consist of 12 thermal generation companies(GENCOS), 8 Electricity distribution companies (DISCOS) and one transmission company (NTDC). NTDC will buy power from IPP's and GENCO's and sell to DISCO's which will further sell electricity to consumers. This power privatization and distribution mechanism will probably cause massive layoffs and further price hikes.
- Pakistan Television is set to launch its full fledged sattelite channel named PTV World in the near future replacing its education channel PTV2.
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In what seems more like a drama Gohar Ayub resigned as foreign minister saying he was sick of foreign tours and having problems with his wife. The other reason cited was that he was losing touch with his constituents and feared losing the next elections. The govt in attempts at damage control suggests that he resigned so that he could be offered a different more lucrative job such as Communications minister or Defence minister. He obviously didn't need to resign for that as a reshuffle was said tobe imminent. The govt has yet to appoint a communications minister since the resignation of Azam Hoti . The press finds all this hard to believe and following are some of the other reasons being cited.
- Failure of the govts afghan policy ie not being able to conquer the northern part of afghanistan
- Differences over relations with the USA
- Unable to get the F-16's or the money back
- Differences over India policy. Foreign minister was being sidetracked by others such as mushahid , ishaq dar and kanju
- Collapse of talks between the Taliban and the Northern alliance.
- Differences over pukhtun policy
- Knocked out by the punjabi lobby
- Considered to have much less rapport with the USA viz sartaj Aziz
- Interferences in the Foreign Office by the prime minister and his cronies
- The prime ministers preference for Siddik Kanju the minister of state for foreign affairs.
- American pressure forced resignation
- Might be eyeing prime ministers job if nawaz sharif falls .
- Disliked prime ministers foreign tours policy
- Resentment over not being made president
- Anti USA remarks seen as reason for being kicked out
- Could not take orders from villager nawaz sharif any longer
- Divergence of views on important foreign policy matters
- Protracted rows with Siddik kanju on all policy matters
- Attempt to embarrass nawaz sharif who overlooked him for president
- Other longshot rumours are that Gohar was behind most of the anti MQM violence which caused his removal
- Gohar was set tobe given a lesser ministry in the reshuffle which would have caused a grave loss of face
- Fallout with Nawaz on division of kickbacks in hiring of US lawfirms to fight F-16 money return case.
The prime minister is said tobe enraged and displeased at Gohars leaking his request for a new portfolio . He is said to now regard Gohar as amateurish and some anticipate that Gohar may not get another ministry. The front runners for the Foreign ministry job are Sartaj Aziz, Mushahid Hussein, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Akram Zaki and Ishaq Dar. If Sartaj Aziz is made foreign minister than Ishaq Dar maybe made Finance minster with the possibility of communications going to Chaudhry Nisar and a new face being given provinceial coordination and petroleum and gas. Siddik Kanju has an outside chance too. Other outside contenders for ministerial slots are Humayun Akhter(Foreign/Commerce) and Saif Ur Rehman. In case Gohar Ayub is not given a new post he might become the prime minister in waiting on the offchance that Nawaz Sharif might somehow be scuttled.
Local Bodies
In what maybe seen as a controversial decision which might be overturned on appeal the Punjab High Court has directed the postponement of the Punjab Local Body polls on the request of Imrans PTI. The court observed that electoral rolls must be freshly prepared on the basis of the new census which might cause a delay of more than a year. The new electoral rolls prepared by the previous PPP govt were rejected on the request of the PMLn. The present electoral rolls were prepared in 1985 and are considered badly flawed.
In another decision the Pumjab High Court has declared the Punchayat system illegal . The system was intended to give appointed prominent locals influence over community decisions and introduce a community judicial system which would override the judiciary and local bodies in the rural areas.
Supreme Court
The SC has refused to take into consideration evidence that the CJ Ajmal Mian was already over retirement age as shown by a recently acquired school certificate saying it should have been brought up at the time of initial appointment.
Justice Wajihuddin of the Sind High Court has been elevated to the Supreme Court and Justice Kamal Mansoor Alam has been made the Sind High Court CJ. In theory two judges were tobe elevated from the SHC however the govt has elevated only one so that they could avoid making Justice Majida Rizvi the SHC CJ. Now the govt is expected to elevate two other CJs probably from the punjab and balochistan.
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