POPULATION INFORMATION, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

The government, NGOs, international organisations and donors, and universities are actively involved in South African population research, which could potentially serve as a strong base to support collaborative population information, research and development. The international community, including agencies like the UNFPA, have become important partners in our population and development research community.

A good example of collaborative developmental research was the production of a national report on poverty and inequality in South Africa, during 1998. The report was the combined output of research by government, NGOs, and the academic community (and donor funded), and has become one of the most important strategy documents of the government that was (re-)elected in 1999.

The NPU does not have a set of ‘official’ population and development indicators at the moment, but we do monitor and evaluate those relevant to particular sectors or areas in an integrated fashion - this reflects an issue driven approach to development. The current National Consultative Process will highlight South Africa’s major Population and Development concerns, which would in turn be translated into indicators. The identified indicators will be built into the NPUs five year strategic plan.

Characteristics of South Africa’s population

The following are the key characteristics of our society, as measured in the 1996 population census, the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey, or provided by the Population Research Unit at Rhodes University.

We had a total population of 40,6 million people, growing by 2,06 % per annum. Research indicates however that we could expect the population to stabilise at as low as between 45 and 50 million, in spite of a Total Fertility Rate of 2,9. This is largely due to the impact of HIV / AIDS.

The impact of HIV / AIDS will be especially significant on our population structure. Whilst fertility declines over the recent years have led to a ‘narrowing’ of the base (1 - 4 year age group) of the country’s population pyramid, HIV / AIDS related mortality will lead to a numerical decline of people in the economically active age group (15 - 64), translating into a significantly higher dependency ratio.

In 1997 approximately 16,1 % of South Africans were infected with HIV, and currently about 330 000 people are AIDS-sick. Specifically due to AIDS, our Child Mortality Rate in 1998 was 95,5 per 1000, compared to 69,7 if AIDS did not occur. Our life expectancy has dropped from 64,1 years to 55,7 years between 1995 and 1998.

These trends suggest South Africa’s demographic priorities, and therefore define the indicators most relevant to monitoring and evaluating population and development in the country. Equally important however are the proximate indicators to fertility and mortality trends as described above.

We know that Total Fertility Rates are especially high in impoverished non-urban areas, i.e. 3,9. Women who have received no education have a Total Fertility Rate of 4,5. This is due to high Teenage Birth Rates in rural areas (16,3 %), and poverty (as reflected in low incomes and limited access to essential services and other resources).

High Mortality Rates are increasingly the consequence of AIDS related sicknesses (eg. in some areas up to 70 % of AIDS admissions also have tuberculosis), for example tuberculosis. Proximate indicators to these are migration patterns (internal and international), STDs, the use of condoms, and indicators reflecting women’s social status in relation to men.

Key issues

The National Consultative Process session on Population Information, Research and Development should highlight the importance of collaborative research to better understand the population and development challenges facing our society. More importantly, it should provide guidance on translating such research findings into executable integrated programmes.

Specific issues are:

HIV / AIDS research, and specifically the need for government to develop an ‘official’ position on the quantitative impact of the disease. Scenario’s should include the potential impact of successful HIV infection prevention amongst adolescents.

Migration research - are our migration policies consistent with research findings on regional (SADC) migration patterns? How should migration trends be managed to synergise with the economic integration and growth objectives in SADC.

South Africa’s urban Total Fertility Rate has dropped to 2,4 (approaching the replacement level of 2,1), but it remains high(er) in rural areas (3,9). Next to the traditional explanations to such patterns, what else are the causes for the difference (eg. level of education), and what does that say of government social service delivery in non-urban areas?

High teenage fertility rates still occur - 35% of women have been pregnant at least once by the age of 19, and 30% had a child. How should the government respond to that?

In summary, what will South Africa’s society look like in the future if the above trends are addressed effectively, compared to failure to address them. The discussion should conclude with a mandate to create a platform for regular population and development research coordination and information exchange, in order to strengthen the country’s capacity to respond to such issues, as well as to identify ‘gaps’ on which we know too little. A set of indicators to monitor our progress in addressing key population trends should be developed following the discussions.

HIV / AIDS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

HIV / AIDS mortality is South Africa’s biggest population challenge at present, and will remain so for decades to come, even if we can arrest the spread of the disease. It will decrease the productive population to such an extent that dependency ratios (of aged and youth) will increase to unsustainable levels, whilst the economy’s capacity may be diminished by a lack of (skilled) people to work. Specific statistics and projections on this are presented above.

The disease has two financially major sets of implications for government to respond to, i.e. care of people already infected, and prevention of new infections. Care is largely a Health and Welfare function, whilst prevention should be the result of a wider alliance that campaigns to change people’s behaviour (especially sexual behaviour). Indications are that successful prevention strategies will be much cheaper in the medium and long term than care programmes.

Current HIV / AIDS prevention programmes are fairly ad hoc and uncoordinated, and government’s involvement is largely limited to the Department of Health. NGO programmes are of a community based nature, and often lacks proper infrastructure, and are often not well monitored. Given that the most vulnerable group to new infection is adolescents, the government could play a much more pro-active role through schools. In such a manner, a systematic and measurable strategy could be introduced, which would have optimal impact.

The discussion at the National Consultative Process session on the topic will provide a research overview, and presentations by several non-governmental initiatives on HIV / AIDS. The models developed by the NGO sector should be assessed for replicability through the formal education system. A strong drive to properly coordinate all HIV / AIDS prevention strategies should also emanate from the deliberations.

From the presentations it is clear that a national consensus exists on our population and development priority, i.e. to arrest Aids mortality. The specific key interventions that were proposed is the prevention of HIV infection amongst youth.

Institutionally, it was clear from the presentations that the parameters of the NPU’s role are still subject to debate. For example, presenters did not agree on where the NPU’s role starts and ends, what the national-provincial relationship should be, the "location" of the NPU within government, the nature of partnerships with NGOs, and the role of the NPU within national government.

I would like to propose that one rather looks at these issues from a delivery and efficiency point of view. Many of the abovementioned have been recycled, and not resolved, over the past five years, largely because they remained abstract for a long period. The NPU proposes that we overcome this pragmatic by focussing consultations on the creation of deliverables, and the facilitation of the delivery of these deliverables. We have learnt, through experience, that the generation of a research report does not guarantee delivery of a programme on the ground. The most crucial aspect of delivery is the large amount of work needed to translate research findings into something tangible and meaningful on the ground.

The joint discussion of Welfare and Population and Development issues in a joint forum is a first. It managed to provide pointers in terms of facilitating the delivery of population policy. This is an excellent start in creating thematic (rather than bureaucratic) approaches to the challenges if facing our nation.