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Indian Foreign Exchange Market -Basic Information - Exchange Rate Regime

In the earlier article it was specified that the term 'Exchange Rate Regime' refers to the mechanism, procedures and institutional framework for determining exchange rates at a point of time and changes in them over time, including factors which induced the changes. In theory, a very large number of exchange rate regimes are possible. At two extremes, are the perfectly rigid or fixed exchange rates, and the perfectly flexible or floating exchange rates. Between them are hybrids with varying degrees of limited flexibility. The exchange rate regime of a country determines the parity of its currency to the major currencies of the world like US Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro.

Exchange Rate Regime thus implies an international monetary system, specifying rules and procedures by which different national currencies are exchanged for each other in world trade. Such a system is necessary to define a common standard of value for the world's currencies. The first modern international monetary system was the gold standard. Operating during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the gold standard provided for the free circulation between nations of gold coins of standard specification. Under the system, gold was the only standard of value. During the 1920s the gold standard was replaced by the gold bullion standard, under which nations no longer minted gold coins but backed their currencies with gold bullion and agreed to buy and sell the bullion at a fixed price. This system, too, was abandoned in the 1930s.

Finally came the Gold Exchange Standard, which was defined by Encyclopedia Britannica as the monetary system under which a nation's currency may be converted into bills of exchange drawn on a country whose currency is convertible into gold at a stable rate of exchange. A nation on the gold-exchange standard is thus able to keep its currency at parity with gold without having to maintain as large a gold reserve as is required under the gold standard. Although this adjustment process under gold standard worked automatically, it was not problem-free. The adjustment process could be very painful, particularly for the deficit country. As its money stock automatically fell, aggregate demand fell. The result was not just deflation (a fall in prices) but also high unemployment. In other words, the deficit country could be pushed into a recession. During the great depression of Thirties the Gold Standard was finally abandoned.

Bretton Woods System

After the second world war the monetary authorities from the victorious allied powers, principally the US and UK took up the task of thoroughly overhauling the world monetary system for the non-communist world. The outcome was the so called "Bretton Woods system and the birth of two new supra national institutions the IMF and the World Bank. The exchange rate regime that was put in place can be characterised as the Gold Exchange Standard. The Bretton Woods system was history's first example of a fully negotiated monetary order intended to govern currency relations among sovereign states It had the following features:

  1. the US Government undertook to convert the US dollar freely into gold

  2. Other member countries of the IMF agreed to fix the parities of their currencies vis-a-vis the dollar with variation of 1% on either side of the central parity being permissible. If the exchange rate hits either of the limits, the monetary authorities of the country were obliged to defend it by standing ready to buy or sell dollars against their domestic currency to any extent required to keep the exchange rate within the limits.

Ultimately it was the United States, still the leading member of the system, that had to abandon the same in 1971. Concerned about America's rapidly deteriorating payments situation, as well as rising protectionist sentiment in the U.S. Congress, President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold on 15 August 1971, , freeing the dollar to find its own level in currency markets. With these decisions, both the par value system and the gold exchange standard, the two central elements of the postwar monetary regime, were effectively terminated. The Bretton Woods system passed into history.

Although the post-World War II Bretton Woods regime with its adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement maintained an indirect link with gold, the convertibility into gold was abandoned. Henceforth, the goals would be internal domestic economic stability and especially "full" employment. The net effect was to set off the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. The experience promoted many monetary authorities worldwide to again emphasize the goal of low inflation and some sort of rules-based monetary regime. Indeed, by the 1990s a rules-oriented monetary regime became increasingly popular as a means for restoring and preserving the credibility of monetary authorities and central banks.

Features of Present Day Exchange Rate Regime of Countries in the World
(Source IMF Publication - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/op/193/chap1.pdf )

The exchange rate regimes in today’s international monetary and financial system, and the system itself, are profoundly different in conception and functioning from those envisaged at the 1944 meeting of Bretton Woods establishing the IMF and the World Bank. The conceptual foundation of that system was of fixed but adjustable exchange rates to avoid the undue volatility thought to characterize floating exchange rates and to prevent competitive depreciations, while permitting enough flexibility to adjust to fundamental disequilibrium under international supervision. Capital flows were expected to play only a limited role in financing payments imbalances and widespread use of controls would insulate the real economy from instability arising from short-term capital flows. Temporary official financing of payments imbalances, mainly through the IMF, would smooth the adjustment process and avoid undue disturbances to current accounts, trade flows, output, and employment

In the present system, exchange rates among the major currencies fluctuate in response to market forces, with significant short-run volatility and occasional large medium-run swings. International private capital flows finance substantial current account imbalances, and fluctuations in these flows appear to be either a cause of major macroeconomic disturbances or an important channel through which they are transmitted to the international system. The industrial countries have generally abandoned control and emerging market economies have gradually moved away from them.

Three features of the modern international monetary and financial environment are particularly noteworthy. First, the revolution in telecommunications and information technology has dramatically lowered transaction costs in financial markets and spurred financial innovation and the liberalization and deregulation of domestic and international financial transactions. This, in turn, has facilitated further innovation and capital market integration. As a result, capital mobility has reached levels not matched since the heyday of the to move toward increased exchange rate flexibility. gold standard obstacles to trade in assets have been dramatically reduced and capital movements are highly sensitive to risk-adjusted yield differentials and to shifts in perception of risks. Financial markets have also become globalized in the sense that the balance sheets of major financial and industrial companies around the world are increasingly interconnected through currency and capital markets. As a result, shocks to important individual markets or countries tend to have greater systemic repercussions.

Second, developing countries have been increasingly drawn into the integrating world economy, in terms of both their trade in goods and services and in financial assets. As a consequence, these countries have been able to reap many of the benefits of globalization. However, they also have become more exposed to some of its risks and dangers, notably to abrupt reversals in capital flows. At the same time, private capital flows have come to play a dominant role in emerging economies financing and adjustment.

Third, the emergence of the euro may mark the beginning of a trend toward a bi- or tri-polar currency system, away from reliance on the U.S. dollar as the system’s dominant currency. An important issue is whether the exchange rates between major currencies will continue to exhibit the wide swings and occasional misalignments that characterized the 1980s and 1990s. This is an important issue for the system as a whole because such swings have important repercussions for third countries—developing countries, in particular. For the latter, a wide variety of exchange rate arrangements will prevail with tendency to move toward increased exchange rate flexibility.

Evolution of Exchange rate Regime in India

During the period 1950-1951 until mid-December 1973, India followed an exchange rate regime with Rupee linked to the Pound Sterling, except for the devaluations in 1966 and 1971. When the Pound Sterling floated on June 23, 1972, the Rupee’s link to the British units was maintained; paralleling the Pound’s depreciation and effecting a de facto devaluation.

On September 24, 1975, the Rupee’s ties to the Pound Sterling were broken. India conducted a managed float exchange regime with the Rupee’s effective rate placed on a controlled, floating basis and linked to a “basket of currencies” of India’s major trading partners.

In early 1990s, the above exchange rate regime came under severe pressures from the increase in trade deficit and net invisible deficit, which led the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to undertake downward adjustment of Rupee in two stages on July 1 and July 3, 1991. This adjustment was followed by the introduction of the Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System (LERMS) in March 1992 and hence the adoption of, for the first time, a dual (official as well as market determined) exchange rate in India. However, such system was characterized by an implicit tax on exports resulting from the differential in the rates of surrender to export proceeds.

Subsequently, in March 1993, the LERMS was replaced by the unified exchange rate system and hence the system of market determined exchange rate was adopted. However, the RBI did not relinquish its right to intervene in the market to enable orderly control.

The exchange rate regime in India has undergone significant changes since independence and particularly during the beginning of 1990. The following provides a bird's eye view of major changes.

Year Type of Change
1966 The rupee was devalued by 57.5% against the sterling on June 6th.
1967 Rupee-sterling parity changed as a result of devaluation of sterling.
1971

Bretton woods system broke down in August. Rupee briefly pegged to the US dollar at rupee 7.5 before repegging to sterling at Rs.18.967 with a 2.25 % margin on either side.

1972

Sterling was floated on June 23rd. Rupee sterling parity revalued at Rsa.18.95 and then in October to Rs.18.80

1975

Rupee pegged to an undisclosed currency basket with margins of 2.25% on either side. Intervention currency was sterling with a central rate of Rs.18.3084.

1979

Margins around basket parity widened to 5% on each side in January

1991

Rupee devalued by 22% between July 1st and July 3rd. Rupee-Dollar rate depreciated from Rs.21.20 to Rs.25.80.

1992

LERMS (Liberalised Exchange Rate Management System) introduced with 40-60 dual rate for converting export proceeds, market determined rate for all specified imports and market rate for approved capital transactions

1993

Unified market determined exchange rate introduced for all transactions. RBI would buy spot US dollar and sell US dollars for specified purposes. It will not buy or sell forward through it will enter into dollar swaps

In the next two articles we will deal with the historical evolution/development of the Indian Foreign Exchange Market, a presentation from the Keynote Address by Dr.Y.V.Reddy, present Governor, RBI at the 3rd South Asian Assembly,at Katmandu, Nepal, on September 3, 1999. Dr. Reddy was the Dy.Governor in 1999 when the address was delivered.


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