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Students Corner - A Decade of Economic
Reforms in India - A Review

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A Decade of Economic Reforms - Review by RBI
[Source: RBI Report on Currency and Finance 2001-2002 dated March 31, 2003]

Module: 1 - Real Economy - Growth, Saving and Investment
(The issue of manufacturing sector slowdown, along with the underlying short and long-run
constraints for the industrial sector is examined in the articles relating to Industry.)

Industry - The Manufacturing Slowdown

The loss of momentum in manufacturing growth, which occured in the latter part of 1996, has since continued during the second phase of the reform period. At the disaggregated two-digit level, the manufacturing sector witnessed substantial deceleration in 11 industry groups with a combined weight of 64 per cent in the manufacturing production. Six industry groups with a combined weight of 36 per cent withstood the slowdown and posted an accelerated growth during 1996-2002. However, in view of their relatively low weight, the manufacturing sector, as a whole, registered a slowdown.


Box III.3
Industrial Policy in East Asian Countries

There has been considerable focus on the selective intervention of industrial policies in accelerating economic growth in the East Asian countries. The role of industrial policy in the growth process of these economies was particularly recognised in the 1970s and the 1980s. A number of questions have been raised in the backdrop of the role of industrial policy in the East Asian economies. Whether the selective intervention policies pursued were an important part of their economic success? Whether the changes in international economic environment inhibit developing countries to implement similar industrial policies? The East Asian experience of industrial growth has been, thus, debated for choosing alternative policy options for attaining rapid industrial growth, higher employment and exports as witnessed by these economies.

Japan implemented sectoral industrial policy in the post-1950 period through direct subsidies; tax policy and off-budget finance through Fiscal Investment and Loan Programme; subsidised credit, including the channelling of capital to specified sectors; and controls on international trade, investment and technology imports. The focus of these efforts was aimed at rebuilding heavy industries such as steel and transportation equipment. The trade protection provided to Japanese industry, as measured by effective rate of protection, is argued to be associated with lower than the expected performance of exports, contradicting the notion that infant industries were promoted (Noland, 1997). The research and development (R&D) financed by the Government, however, had favourable impact on trade competitiveness during the 1970s and 1980s. The role of direct subsidies in fostering changes in Japan's industrial composition was minimal. Indirect subsidies such as low interest loans were, however, found to be associated with expansion of output and improved trade performance. Industrial policies were effective in the sense that market interventions appeared to have impacted on resource flows and composition of output

The orientation of industrial policy in Korea had changed drastically in the mid-1960s with an emphasis on exports. There was a drive towards heavy and chemical industry in order to alter the composition of industrial output with more technology and engineering intensive products. It also aimed at upgrading export profile and reducing reliance on imports. The policies for channelling capital through interest subsidy were augmented by extensive tax incentives for priority industries. However, the era of protection to industries came to an end in 1979 when the Government announced a comprehensive stabilisation plan. Policies undertaken during this period are, however, found to be unsuccessful on the ground of creation of excess capacity in favoured sectors while starving non-favoured sectors of resources. It is also observed that during the heavy and chemical industry drive, the establishment of oligopolistic positions by the Chaebol retarded technological change. Further, Lee (1996) finds that trade protections were negatively associated with the growth rate of labour and total factor productivity, while tax incentives and subsidised credit were uncorrelated with sectoral productivity growth. The labour productivity growth is found to be slower in protected sectors. Nevertheless, inter-industry externalities of industrial policies emanating from domestic production of intermediate goods, movements of workers from protected sectors to other sectors and direct interaction on equipment design between producers and local buyers would have potentially increased total factor productivity (TFP) growth in other sectors (Pack, 2000).

A critical component of Taiwan's success was that its industrial policies helped to establish new and successful manufacturing sector. The industrial growth was facilitated by low level of trade protection, availability of inputs at international prices, conservative macroeconomic policy, and competitive factor markets. The basic fiscal incentive programme for industry from 1961 to 1990 provided for participating firms to choose tax exemptions or accelerated depreciation on capital equipment. Such fiscal incentives targeted specific industries, though the focus shifted over time from labour intensive exports in the 1960s to capital-intensive sectors in the 1970s to technology intensive sectors in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the Government discontinued such fiscal concessions and replaced them with the system where firms were eligible for tax relief based on expenditure on activities such as R&D expenditure or pollution control. A second industrial policy tool was subsidised credit for export financing and import of raw materials. The third major tool of industrial policy was trade controls. However, since 1989 the Government undertook far reaching trade liberalisation that brought the level of trade protection down to developed country levels, at least in the manufacturing. Besides these standard tools of selective intervention, there was also another set of policy conducive to the development of manufacturing sector viz., establishment of a large number of institutions that were designed to identify, transfer, defuse and efficiently absorb foreign industrial technologies and then to undertake innovation. These latter policies were largely introduced in the late 1970s and 1980s. These efforts reflected the fact that Taiwan's policies were more neutral than those of Korea and Japan with respect to firm size. Much of its industrial development was in firms with fewer than 100 employees. Pack and Lin (2001) find that industrial policy could have added 1 percentage point to TFP growth in manufacturing.

Much of the early growth in Japan, Korea and Taiwan consisted of simple, labour intensive products such as clothing, toys, sporting goods and simple electronics. Perhaps, the main miracle in these countries was maintenance of a high rate of investment and relatively efficient absorption. After the oil price shocks in the 1970s, Japan, Korea and Taiwan were able to pursue a policy of reducing domestic absorption and altering the real exchange rate between tradables and non-tradables for exports to respond to the new price structure. De Mello (1985), using the standard input-output based demand decomposition, found that rapid expansion of exports than of other components of final demand accounted for about three-quarters of the rise in growth of manufacturing sector. The phenomenal expansion of exports generated rapid employment growth in these sectors.

Despite ambiguity on the role of industrial policy in causing TFP growth, favourable impact of industrial policy was that investment ratio and TFP growth did not fall in the face of phenomenal rates of capital accumulation (Noland and Pack, 2003). An important factor that contributed to the high marginal product of capital especially in Korea and Taiwan was the considerable flexibility of labour and the efforts of firms to improve their productivity. Workers moved without impediment to expanding areas rather than sticking to the sectors under increasing competitive pressure. Measures at enhancing industrial growth in the East Asian countries also focused on building large and efficient social infrastructure, favourable attitude towards international technology transfer and substantial investment in public technology institutions. The difference in performance of these countries is also attributed to more competitive pressure that resulted from reliance on exports as a measure of performance. In addition, a critical difference was the relative openness of these countries to disembodied technology imports obtained through technology licenses where as Latin American countries and India were restrictive.

In the above backdrop, the relevant lesson for contemporary developing countries is that the differences in the nature of policy and its implementation are critical for robust industrial growth. Japan, Korea and Taiwan undertook continuous monitoring of progress of firms where the protection was provided. Subsidised credit and protection in the domestic market in Korea were contingent on export performance of firms. Firms were, thus, forced to improve productivity which led to intensive efforts to import and assimilate foreign technology. Consequently, Korea and Taiwan experienced high TFP growth rate compared with other developing countries, although much of this might have accrued without selective intervention.


Factors Causing the Industrial Slowdown: Some Hypotheses

A number of hypotheses in terms of cyclical and structural factors have been put forward to explain the slowdown in the manufacturing activity during the latter phase of the reform period. The explanations provided, however, fall short of giving a satisfactory answer to what has led to the manufacturing slowdown and its persistence. The onset of slowdown is often attributed to the satiation of the pent-up domestic demand of 'once-for-all' nature for a host of import-intensive goods, which could be domestically assembled or produced following trade liberalisation (Chandrasekhar and Ghosh, 2002). The short-run increase in domestic demand was seemingly facilitated by easy access to credit, including consumer credit in the wake of financial liberalisation. Once that pent-up demand of transitory nature was satisfied, industry entered the phase of slowdown in the absence of demand support - domestic or exports. However, the huge capacity-build up noticed in the first phase of the reform period runs counter to the momentary surge in demand that was not likely to be sustained in the long run.

Another hypothesis on the onset of slowdown relates to the 'credit crunch' which, it is argued, triggered off the manufacturing slowdown (Sen et al, 1997 and Desai, 2001). The unexpected and temporary tightening of liquidity in money markets during 1995-96, resulting from large dollar sales by the Reserve Bank to contain volatility in the forex market, was mistaken to be an expression of deflationary credit policy (Acharya, 2002).

Yet another factor was the role of the corporate sector. The proportion of corporate funds locked up in inventories and receivables went up steadily, leading to a scarcity of working capital (Sen et al, 1997). Further, the proportion of funds invested in financial instruments, which had hovered around 5 per cent during 1985-1993, crossed the level of 10 per cent subsequently. The depressed stock market conditions in 1995-96 inhibited the redemption of financial instruments. The rising interest rates may also have been prohibitive for new projects and investment, particularly, in the informal sector which has limited access to funds (Shetty, 1997a and 2001b). Reinforced by the increased borrowings by the Government, the weighted average lending rate of scheduled commercial banks rose to 17.1 per cent in 1995-96 from 16.1 per cent in 1994-95. In real terms, the rate shot up to 8.5 per cent in 1995-96 from an all-time low (for the 1990s) of 3.9 per cent in the preceding year

What follows below is an account of these cyclical and structural factors which have impacted upon industrial growth in recent years.


- - - : ( Cyclical Factors in Industrial Slowdown1 ) : - - -

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