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11 - 06 - 00
First of all, look at how many Zelda games are coming out. We have Majora's Mask this month, two new Game Boy Games coming soon, and a Gamecube Zelda in the works. Seems like they are already going Zelda crazy, so why bother with a movie? We have enough to satisfy our apetite at the moment. At least that might be what Nintendo thinks. So who knows? Maybe after GC Zelda comes out they'll start thinking about it. Then, when everyone is bored with playing the game, they'll come out with Zelda: The Movie. Well, we can only hope. Basically, Nintendo sees no point in a Zelda movie if they already have so many Zelda games planned.
Also, there's the problem with Pokemon. Nintendo is still riding on those 150 or whatever little monsters, and they are going to pump every penny out of it that they can. That probably means they are going to make another movie. Well, I don't know for sure, but Pokemon is still pretty popular, and I can't imagine Nintendo not capitalizing on that popularity. So let's just go on the assumption that they will make another Pokemon movie. If so, then they will not want to create a Zelda movie at roughly the same time. Face it, many if not most people who would see a Pokemon would also see a Zelda movie. But they might not necessarily see both at or near the same time. For obvious reasons, Nintendo would not want to make them choose. Therefore, they must pick one or the other, and they will pick Pokemon. My reasons for this may offend Pokemon lovers, but I do not think Pokemon will last as long as Zelda. Or at least there's a smaller chance of Pokemon being a continued success. Zelda has already survived 14 years and has a dedicated fan base; Pokemon has only been around for a couple years and has mainly little children as a fan base. True, Pokemon may survive, but is Nintendo going to take that chance? People will still see a Zelda movie whether or not it comes out in 2001 or 2004. Pokemon may be different, so Nintendo will put Pokemon first. That's just capitalism at work. That does not necessarily mean Nintendo won't make a Zelda movie; it just means that Nintendo isn't going to make one anytime soon.
Now we have past performances. Does anyone remember the Super Mario Brothers movie? Did anyone actually like it? Yes, friends, it was a flop. Mario may be the king of gaming, but he is most definitely not good on the big screen. The failure of this may make Nintendo cautious and give them cold feet. Do they really want to risk the popularity of Zelda on a possible failure in the theatres? Sure, one could argue that Pokemon was a relative success, but that is different. The Pokemon movie (first one at least) was nothing more than an elongated cartoon. Thus, they figured if the show does well, the movie should as well. And they were right. And don't bother arguing that Mario had a cartoon as well. The movie was nothing like the cartoon. Thus, there was no basis. Now, though, we have a glimmer of hope in Zelda's main rival for number 1: Final Fantasy. Squaresoft has taken the leap to the big screen. Nintendo isn't stupid. They know that these two supergames are about the two best candidates for a box office success: elements of plot, large range of appeal, recognizable characters, etc. Although it sounds bad, Nintendo will probably base the decision on a Zelda movie on the performance of Final Fantasy. So, if you want to se a Zelda movie, go watch FF. A success there will certainly give Nintendo something to look at. And they will certainly considermaking a Zelda movie. Thus, Nintendo is merely letting Squaresoft take the risk.
So what does this all mean? If I am right in all of these assumptions (which I am not claiming are true), then Nintendo will not make a Zelda movie anytime soon. But that does not mean there will not be a Zelda movie. The date of 2004 sounds reasonable. It's about a year after when I project GC Zelda will come out, so the Zelda surge will be dying out. By that time Pokemon will not be a craze, so Nintendo will have to look elsewhere for their money. And it is enough time after any Final Fantasy movie to attract other gamers. This does not mean I think you should not sign those petitions. By all means do so! It will only give more evidence to Nintendo that a Zelda movie can be a success. So keep those hopes up, but don't start looking for movie releases quite yet.